Cepheid (CPHD)

wins bost of the contracts it bids for. Potentially makes diagnosing infections available at low cost and much faster than tradiional methods.

Getting one test approved after another. The C Diff test is a big deal clinically speaking and could be very popular and be an inroad for other tests. They need to get their machines into hospitals and this could be a meaningful way of doing it. Unfortunetly limited money in health care right now but this is priced into this relatively cheap company..

Will return to glory by Q1 09 imo.

Genetic analysis for diagnostic, industrial and biothreat markets. Picked up from Penny after 30% drop on earnings report. Slowdown in biothreat business leading drop but core staph test is solid and stock should come back now that it's out ot such high prices.

This stock just seems to keep on going. I wish I had kept the several thousand shares I purchased at $5 each 5 years ago. I'd be sitting on a tropical beach somewhere with a Margeurita in my hand.

copied from TMFBreakerJava

This company sells a near-real time Staph tester which can be a life saver in this new era of superbugs. Their tech displaces tests that take 24 to 48 hours to provide results. Thanks to bigredchet for bringing this one to my attention.

Demand can only increase for their user-friendly and ultrafast bacterial tests.

This company sells a near-real time Staph tester which can be a life saver in this new era of superbugs. Their tech displaces tests that take 24 to 48 hours to provide results. Thanks to bigredchet for bringing this one to my attention.

Demand can only increase for their user-friendly and ultrafast bacterial tests.

cphd, vmw, nflx, v, vlcm, goog, aapl

From my short ideas/valuation screen

Unless someone else comes in with highly responsive genetic analysis systems that perform better, then these folks have a lot of incredible growing to do. The industry will do quite well. Only the insurance industry could hold them and the industry back by not paying for the tests.

I think Cepheid is building a solid competitive advantage in nosocomial infection surveillance / screening / diagnostics; I feel that it will be difficult to beat CPHD both on the low end and the high end:

Low End: As the Company's installed base grows, it will become increasingly difficult to cost-disrupt the company. This is because Cepheid strategy is to expand the throughput of its systems to the maximum which accomplishes to things: 1. Makes cepheid's margins higher because more consumables 2. Makes cost ownership lower because more tests are depreciated over the same system. 3. follow-ons, aka the hordes of vc backed IVD - LOC/MEMS/uTAS/etc. companies e.g. Nanosphere - are unlikely to overcome the significant technology integration (whole product invention) while coming in at a low cost point - all this investment needs to get amoritized and I just dont see it happening in the core nosocomial infections market.

High End: In the near term, testing for a few genes in 72m. or so is good enough and fast enough. Yes, there is a ceiling in complex disease like cancer where gene quantification and multiplex density become much more important, but there are plenty of infectious disease out there where Cepheid is good enough....one risk are new consumables coming on the market with the ability to detect multiple bugs, so watch for this closely.

Conclusion: Cepheid's position is solid in the nosocomial infectious disease market - as long as you and other investors don't get too enchanted my promises of cancer diagnostics, etc (and I don't think this is reflected in the share price so it should be a problem), this stock will do well.

This one looks good and steady.

I expected this to come down off its highs, but it did so harder and faster than I expected. Still this is a good growing company carving a nice niche for itself. The MRSA test is selling strongly and some other tests are trickling out as well. It would not stun me that MRSA testing become a requirement for admittance in the US, which should drive CPHD even more, especially with medicare changes that no longer compensates hospitals for costs related to their own errors / oversights.

Maybe could have waited and gotten this at a better re-up price.

Harvested a positive gain yesterday and reloading at a better cost basis. Here is my original pitch:

This was my best performing stock in my personal portfolio in 2007, delivering a double(+) in the 8 or 9 months I owned it. I'm still holding it there, so may as well put it in CAPS too.

MRSA is a nasty problem which will only continue to gain more attention. The obvious approach in a hospital is to identify it quickly before it spreads to others, because it is damned costly and time consuming to treat. CPHD is the solution that does that.

MRSA testing in hospitals leads to significant growth

They are a growing ferm with some good looking

prospects larger companys are interested in.

I feel the market could drag it down some

makeing it a good entry point.

Every year many stocks get pumped up on hype in one way or another.Everything from save the world to new cures for lockjaw. This tradition is older than I am and the markets are loaded with these company's.If They gain market hype then they are mostly used for pumps and dumps by institutions and will perform nice returns sometimes 2 or 3 times a year.A simple rule of thumb on long term investments that has been tried and found true for more than a decade in the market.If a company's shares reach above $20,then it must be atleast turning a profit and showing growth,or it is overpriced, anything over $25 a share,(must be showing a profit),(fair amount of growth) and (be paying a reasonable dividend) or it is overpriced.Also when management scatters out their financial documents like dirty laundry kicked under the bed, instead of keeping everything in order and easy to read ,then $5 is overpriced,Company's that are thriving don't worry much about trying to hide financial statements,but I did finally swim through it incase anyone wants an idea to further research. OK,Net profit margin (minus -22.00%) and fallen. Income (minus - 25 million) and falling with Income growth minus -19% (Two positives,and the (first bigger than the last. dept/equity ratio around zilch)always a +PLUS, and it is showing about 3% sales growth,(Paying no dividend),but they do offer billed golf caps the beginning of 2009,which brings us to fair value $3 when the air of hype is let out by the market, NOW,unless they should invent the new wave toilet paper or bouncy rubber,or baseball caps with headlights and steering wheel or something,then the shares are way overpriced.

The future is here now.

High likelihood that mandated MRSA screening will drive up sales.