Calpine Corp. (CPN)

obama energy stimulus and clean energy

why are all-stars outperform this company

overburdened with debt

low nat gas prices is good in that in can be competitive, but so are coal prices right now, also overbuilt in texas/cali areas, low prices due to low demand - lots of idle capacity here

prices rise and their margins are crimpled due to necessary purchases of fuel in the open market

this guys are at most worth 12/share, and with enough lowered demand are facing a potential face-off with bondholders.

lets not forget their unregulated status. you may want to invest here saying that they are a "green company"

but most green energy initiatives will be securitized through gov't funded programs and tax-incentive debt programs, which will be in turn given to REGULATED utilities that tend to have agreements to earn a specific ROE on their asset base and in turn payout a tax-advantaged dividend to investors, thats a model that has always worked...

Fremont says SELL

Solid fundamentals. Performing against expectations. Natural gas market to expand.

re-open

Emerged from BK in a very solid position with free cash of almost $400m. If youo take this to 10X you have current value.

I think IF the economy stablizes you can see the mulitple expand to 13-15 times leading to a 30 - 50 % upside.

One of the "greener" power companys around should advantage them. Restructuring out of bankruptcy helped them escape substantial debt and completely destroyed stockholder equity.
Lets see how they do this time

This one's gonna get big!

Green Energy is finally coming into it's own. I'm banking on some form of Carbon Cap & Trade system to be implemented in the US by the end of this year and it's about time! This company stands to benefit greatly if such a scenario occurs and hold up nicely even if it doesn't. Obama said that Green collar jobs are a must for economic recovery and I agree, this should have other energy companies scrambling to be more like Calpine.

clean energy

insider buying, better management, near book value price, government support.

Clean Energy

If management doesn't run the company into the ground again this stock has huge upside.

10.8b bid to buy CPN from NRG in May 2008. Current market cap is 3.1b. Geothermal and Natural Gas plants. All in USA. Profitable. One of few non-yield stocks in my portfolio. Acquisition target, if not, will do well under new DOE.

Lower natural gas prices, located in TX and CA

Calpine has transformed itself through bankruptcy into a lean and mean energy producing machine. Not only do they have the youngest power plants they are also strategically located in prime areas for energy growth. That, combined with a new high-energy and level-headed CEO with a rich backround in power plant operations equals a Bright Future for Calpine!

Compnay produce very clean electricity an is alread a darling of the Greenpeace set. Should do well, be able to sell lots of carbon drdits.

Touigh outperform call. Not because CPN will not perform, this market may exprience bailout bounce.

You think gas has increased, just wait for power will be the next big increase. Their independent and the market will see quite a price increase as utilities and energy users scramble to get supplies.