Crocs, Inc. (CROX)

I closed my CROX position last year October to add to my POT stock.My oil and gas profits will be reinvested into this cyclical shoe and cash until this market is at a level I feel comfortable to play.
Is CROX a fad? Absolutely, just like the 15 year UGG fad.
Knockoffs? Plenty, but cheap enough to have Brand loyal support.
Solid branding, new product lines, expensive accessories, comfort, and new international support.
Between October 1-31 I will sellout of CROX again just when I need to put away my sandals, get out my winter boots, back up the oil / gas market truck to heat my home, and before I see their international shipping bill costs!!!
There is too many weak handed shareholders to hold this stock annually.-Including me!
My POT stock? Took profits on Valentines Day. Most kept in Cash.
Some in what I will believe will be a the next shoe to make me a crazy CROX like profits http://www.skinsfootwear.com/ Skins Inc (SKNN) ticker
The biggest long term difference between CROX and SKNN ?
SKNN is completely patented something I wish CROX had!

This is a long term pick, and it's probably going to screw up my CAPS score in the short term. But this thing is (a) a fad and (b) ludicrously over-valued. It might not tank massively, but it can't keep on outperforming the S&P forever with its one trick. Might not be today, might not be tomorrow, but a hard rain's gonna fall... and Crocs suck for keeping your feet dry.

The good
(1) No single customer accounted for 10% or more of our revenues for the year ended December 31, 2007.
(2) In 2007, international sales accounted for approximately 48% of total revenues in 2007, compared to 32% in 2006 and 7% in 2005
(3) As of December 31, 2007, the backlog, which consists of open orders, was approximately $145.4 million. This is a heartening that this exists, as this explains the inventory issue to a good extent
(4) Share re-purchase of about 500k shares at $47.75 - not a huge buyback, but better than none
(5) Their gross margin continues to improve
(6) During 2007, we expanded our manufacturing capacities at the facilities we operate in North America and opened a new manufacturing facility in Brazil. Companies on their way out or under operating pressure rarely open new manufacturing facilities.

The bad
(1) "We do not have long term contracts with any of our retail customers, and sales to our retail customers are generally on an order-by-order basis and are subject to rights of cancellation and rescheduling by the customer." - volatility, meet my stock
(2) Only one diffrentaitor (and not completely patented) - 2 patents http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsearch-bool.html&r=25&f=G&l=50&co1=AND&d=PTXT&s1=crocs&OS=crocs&RS=crocs
http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&p=1&u=%2Fnetahtml%2FPTO%2Fsearch-bool.html&r=25&f=G&l=50&co1=AND&d=PTXT&s1=crocs&OS=crocs&RS=crocs

The risks
(1) "Post acquisition, we continue to protect the formula by using confidentiality agreements with our third-party processors and by requiring our employees who have access to the formula to execute confidentiality agreements or to be bound by similar agreements concerning the protection of our confidential information. Neither we nor Crocs Canada have attempted to seek patent protection for the formula" - WHAT? Why not? That is the only thing you make money off?
(2) One manufacturer in China produced approximately 56% of the third-party footwear products. Contained regional issues with out-sized effects, meet my stock

Elephant in the room
Ballooning inventories, A/C receivables
Here's something interesting though. The breakdown of inventories (in millions of dollars) 2007 vs. 2006...
Finished goods: 225, 79
WIP goods: 3.3, 0.45
Raw Materials: 20.4, 6.8

You can see, Work-in-progress and Raw Material inventory is ballooning too. And, that is considered a good sign. This means that the company expects the inventories to move soon, else they wouldn't be hoarding raw materials and smoking their chimneys on.

Conclusion
Assuming a 0% growth, the current income will pay me back the market cap in 8 years.
Not many growth stocks can offer such safety. I'll take it.

People say this is a fad, but I think this company will outperform all other shoe brands. In the future, all shoes will have small holes in them.

They were close to extinction before, but they made a remarkable comeback. Over the last two months, there stock has been relatively flat, in a trading range. The market rally since March has obviously helped this company's stock price. The expectation for a recovery in retail has made this company look like a good value play. Unfortunately, retail recovery will be dependent primarily on unemployment recovery, which I don't see happening soon. So that begs the question, does this company have enough capital to survive until unemployment improves? I don't think so and I think that this will become apparent within a year.

Fashionista smashionista, Crocs are the too-cool-for-school, comfort-beats-all, anti-fashion statement of the year! Quit using your bully pulpit to hike up your shorts-- this one's a winner.

MAJOR PENDING NEW CONTRACTS :CROX has ENORMOUS VALUE in its PROPRIETARY RESIN. On 9/25/06 at the Thomas Weisel Consumer Conference, the Company indicated that the proprietary resin material used in CROX will be used for helmets. It is especially ideal since it is light weight, odor resistant and resists bacterial--the resin is "closed cell," which means that bacteria can't take root.Since they have an exclusive patent on the resin,soon all helmets--military and for recreational sports will be using it. Plus their world wide sales are outstanding. THey just received an order for 100,000 shoes from India (also mentioned at the Conference) and they have set up capacity to meet this demand. Listen to the conference at the crocs.com website. ALso Cramer says they should "blow away" their 3rd quarter earnings (as they have every quarter). THe stock is over 50% short--so it should be fun to watch the shorts all try to close their positions.

The shoes are a starting point to launch the crocs brand. The shoes are awfully innovative and comfortable. This will continue to fuel demand in the US and abroad. Nevertheless, the company has to think in life after the shoes. Thus, still a strong brand positioning work has to be made.

shorts are wrong on p/e and estimates, 8mm+ shares are already short and most have no idea what's going w/ the company and the growth potential. ask the shorts why stock's going up? as college crocs and disney crocs catch up, the the shorts could be in tears.

Rediculous valuation right now. Unless this company goes under, which is a low probablity, this stock will be above 10 dollars in no time.

This company is valued at one billion dollars. They make colorful shoes that are going to be out of fashion in about a year (if not tomorrow). Frankly, I find this valuation to be laughable. There is nothing in their numbers to justify this price. If I had the cash, I'd short this stock and go yacht shopping.

It's prolly too early to crow - but who was the Fool who wanted to short this stock, right before its 20% gain. The shoes are versatile, comfortable, fun - yeah people need less of that in their lives. I do beleive that they will develop a hiking boot, work boots, winter boots, athletic shoes etc. Licensing with Disney and college teams is not stupid also. I see solid growth for a long time.

This company's products are ugly and easily copied. It baffles me. Wal-Mart now has a dirt cheap copy-cat. Snobs stop being willing to pay big bucks for a product when less fortunate people can buy knock offs at Wal-Mart. The product looses its sex appeal. This stock has got to crash sometime, right? But when. Maybe it will defy logic and I will supremely regret picking underperform. That's why I don't short stocks in real life, but can on CAPS!

Will be difficult to reproduce early growth. New product lines appear too far removed from what created the original buzz. The products have very little coherant vision and look more like scatter shot hoping something will hit. That sort of strategy drives up costs and drags down the stock.

I've recently changed from a bear to a bull on CROX. I was, in fact, the top bear pitch for quite some time before stopping my position.

At $9 a share, this is a screaming buy. Inventory is an issue, but they seem to be moving product well now that the nice weather has arrived. New styles seem to be showing up, and international sales continue to be strong.

Funds and analysts are catching on too. Motley Fool, CNBC, and others have recently recommended the stock as a value play. Check out the insider buying...it's way up. They know that things are going well, and this stock is going to move come next quarter.

There is still a lot of interest in this brand. If it turns out to be just a fad, long term it will collapse; however, the short term outlook is very promising. They recently blew away estimates and raised their guidance for next quarter. Unfortunately, this stock was carrying a huge short ratio. Between the shorts and the correction soon after their earnings release, the stock has languished. I think it is at a great buy in price.

Fad product, easily reproduced, no support, simply bad style.

One word. Ugly.

This company has built an empire on a fad and is about to crumble. I would short this stock until it hit bottom.