Canadian Solar, Inc. (NASDAQ:CSIQ)

Everyone hates solar (myself included). Pessimism was too rampant in these stocks. Most of their sales are from Germany and France - not the best targets. That being said the struggles ahead are built into the price, and I expect a sharp rebound of investor sentiment.

Technically- the clear rounding bottom in the weekly chart from november to december 2011 with significant volume as it broke to the upside is a great sign.

because.

What works on Wall Street value screen.

Found using the GROWTH AT A REASONABLE PRICE (GAARP) screen at Reuters Stock Screener

The solar trend is likely to reverse soon, and solar will rise again.

Canadian Solar is very cheap beased on fundamentals. The stock ($8.38/sh) trades at 2/3 of net tangible assets, a trailing P/E of 6.6, an EV/rev of 0.61 and Y-o-Y revenue growth of 32%.

Will be $15 soon

Below book value. Solar will continue to become more efficient, energy more scarce, electricity more valuable in the future. Low p/e ratio

Weak Group Rotation Pick

quiron,

You are correct. The fossil fuel industrys have been nursing at the Government teat for far to long and it is afraid to let go. Their time to suckle is past, and there is a new generation for taxes to nurture.

As to CSIQ. Its share price was double what it is now, when its sales were less than half what they are now. That is just special pricing.

I pop on line and look for CSIQ and ignore the investing websites, the financial news and yahoo money. I note that someone is selling 20, 230 watt panels for $11K. Maybe I can get them for less, maybe not. Let's use the skeptics number of 20 years of useful life. Let's imagine that they produce electricity 8 hours every day, and 225 days every year. So we get 4.5kw times 8 hours equals 36 kwh every day x 225 equals 8100kwh every year times 20 years equals 162,000kwh's of electricity for $11k. 162,000 divided by $11,000 equals $.067 or less than 7 cent per kwh over the course of their life.

LIPA charges me $.085 for each of the first 250 kwh's I use each month.

So basically CSIQ has a viable product, especially if I am in the south west US under bright sunny skies cranking the AC during the hot day.

But here on Long island it is close. I haven't included the cost for a power converter yet. I haven't paid to install it. I may not average 8 usable hours or 225 sunny days. I also might, but I don't know. Maybe I am not their customer yet. Maybe it is a David in the Qatar desert that is their customer for now. That is a lot of potential customers even without me.

Ending subsidys on oil and coal would bring things closer. Not having liberated Iraqi oil but instead forcing XOM to negotiate on its own with Saddam hussein would bring things closer and probably have left more of my tax dollars in my SSI account. LIPA has a monopoly to sell Suffolk County electricity, it is not unreasonable to insist they buy that electricity from their Suffolk customers who produce it (feed in tarrifs).

So they have a viable product. Do they have a viable business? Have they recognised most of their customers are inthe Southwest? How is their marketing? Are they selling greeny feel goods to Texans who would rather buy independence panels? Have they maintained their margins as their sales doubled (looks like they did)? Are they predicting lower sales in 2011? or better?

Right now there is concern that some of the solar panel manufacturers will fail. It is also possible that right now there is enough market for more.

I think when you hear the soalr skeptics echo the concerns that were true in 1980, when oil was $20/barrel it is a good idea to consider if those concerns are still true, or will remain true.

But I'll bet that ten years from now LIPA will be charging 25% more than the $.085 cents they are charging me right now.

But I'm not CSIQ's customer unless some Oaks fall down.

But unless they are cooking the books or something, had a big contract they aren't keeping, CSIQ seems like a good bet.

Now it is time to go look at the finanial websites and see if anyone is making any claims of bookkeeping issues. Know of anny good ones?

In the meantime, it is ok for Caps. Outperform 5years.

Do I hear fossil fuels squeeling as they come off the teat?

Best wishes,

Steven

Out of Favor Stocks Screen

One Block off the Grid deal. Near recent bottom

This is one solar company that seems to have a somewhat sustainable business model. Making profits, growing earnings, analysts seem to be bullish. I like it.

with oil approaching $100, alternatives look attractive

It’s a bird
It’s a plane..
Nope…it’s just Cap and Trade……
Sector Rotation….risk back on!

csiq has taken a big hit because of the Euro falling but sales are growing and going green is the newest and greatest industry for years to come

bull

solar will continue to grow as housihg recovers.

Low debt for the solar sector, good management, good cost control, small P/E compared to the industry.