Ctrip.com International, Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ:CTRP)

This stock is ready for another run and the Bull's seem to like to this sector. Hard times require leisure spending.

Enormous growth potential, absolutely blowing away its nearest competitor and poised to benefit from China's rising middle class.

Again, lots of ignorance abound on the internet concerning this one. Most common posts: "Tibet!!!", "Olympic Boycott!!!" Guys, this company is a domestic travel service for Mainland China. It doesn't have partnerships overseas (yet). I've been to China and have used CTrip to book hotels, tickets and taxis. The service is incredibly efficient and professional. When the holidays come around in China, people overcrowd airports, rail and bus stations. CTrip brings some sense of order to the chaos. Even without the Olympics CTrip is guaranteed to keep growing, especially when its nearest competitor, majority Expedia-owned Elong, is a complete joke. If you don't believe me, just go check out Elong's website in comparison to Ctrip's. Ctrip has been seeking out foreign partners for the Olympics. I'm sure Western travel agencies will be more than happy to strike a deal with Ctrip. This would only solidify the incredible advantage that this company has in the Chinese travel industry.

Even though this stock is in the shaky Chinese company sector, they have a great percentage of the market share and trade on the Nasdaq so it can't be all that bad~

Well positioned in the market that it going to continue to grow. The only thing that masses of chinese spend money on is travel and education.

the olyimpics.

Easy pick, Chinese markets at key support levels to bounce, this stock is primed for growth.

China travel market is forecasted to grow exponentially between now and 2020, CTRP had phenomenal earnings and was flushed with the market.

this stock high yield momentum is outragious, is ta must own

Ctrip.com International is a Shanghai and is a personal service and has a market cap of $3,288.96. It is a leading travel service provider of hotel and their revenues has increase 54%. So I think that from this information that this is a stock to watch.

30%+ growth per year for 5 yrs? c'mon... easy money.

Getting in at a low point. I see big things for this company immediately following the Olympics and for quite a while past that.

A solid business plan which has already proved to be working and tons of upward potential in a market that has a massive amount of headroom left.

Proven business model now being adapted to a burgeoning middle-class with increasing disposable income and (perhaps as important) the desire to enjoy all the trappings of wealth that their Western counterparts have enjoyed. Combine all this with the way CTRP are constantly beating estimates and gaining market share and the opportunities are tremendous.

Ctrip is emerging as the dominant player in the rapidly growing Chinese online travel market. Morningstar analysts quote iResearch data indicating that in 2006, online travel represented 1% of the total Chinese travel market. They predict 35% annual growth (in Chinese online travel) through 2010. With online travel representing only 1% of the total travel market, and the Chinese economy taking off, most of the the industry's growth is still ahead. The Bejing Olympics should also give a near term boost to growth.

Hidden Gems has recommended CTRP 3 times: January 2006 (up 290%), February 2006 (up 276%), and May 2006 (up 156%). With this dramatic run up in stock price and a P/E of 100+ is the stock overvalued at today's price of $56.90 per ADR?

Morningstar's DCF calculation estimates an intrinsic value per share of $54.00. I ran some numbers in the Hidden Gems DCF calculator as a sanity check. Here they are:

Discount Rate: 15%
2007 FCF (I just used net income): $54,605,000 (From Feb 2008 6-K)
FCF Growth year 1-5: 30%
FCF Growth year 6-10: 15%
Terminal FCF Growth: 8%
Shares Outstanding (diluted): 34121 (From Feb 2008 6-K)

Est Intrinsic Value (Excluding cash etc.): $72.08

It looks like the stock is not over valued, although it might be fully valued under more conservative assumptions.

* Quality exposure to the Chinese market
* RMB is likely to continue to appreciate vs the dollar
* Online travel market in China has just been tapped and it will grow rapidly for years
* Ctrip is the current industry leader so it's building a moat with brand recognition
* 2008 Olympics are likely to give Chinese travel a near term boost

hot

because its good

This one is poised for great growth. they don't overpromise but they over-deliver. Olympics coming, an obvious catalyst.

Ollympic coming up with move this stock.. Has always outperformed the market and with the amount of chinese growth the hotels will be very needed

Recommendation of the Gardners'

Motley fool article