PowerShares DB Oil Fund (ETF) (AMEX:DBO)

Hormuz - What will Iran do?

global population growth and rise of the east

Outperform

Energy is one of the long term places to be. I feel that we are 15 to 20 years out from alt energy making significant inroads on oil and gas usage. Barring a global meltdown, oil can only go up from here. Too many people not enough energy.

oil demand will outstrip supply, and dollar devaluation will raise commodity prices; US economy meanwhile will be going sideways for some time.

Time for Oil

Oil is going to $200 over the next five years as the world economy recovers. All the new oil fields are expensive to put into production and higher oil prices are needed. Also demand will continue to grow because of the growing economies of the developing world.

peak oil

Oil may be oversupplied right now, but Venezuela and other key oil regions are finding peak production levels for their oil fields even while they're backing off production. As the cost of extracting oil increases exponentially due to the capital cost of offshore platforms and spendy alternatives like sands and shale, so will the futures price of oil erupt like Old Faithful. Besides this perfectly valid reason, investors will also grow a new speculation bubble over the next year which will provide risky profits.

As recently as Spring of '08, explorer were evaluating new fiielld development based on oil at $75, at a time when oil was well north of that price.

The world has plenty of oil, it is just more expensive to extract.

The world is going to run on crude based energy sources for at least the next decade, based on the massive structural change that would be required and the technological breakthroughs needed to produce a cheaper alternative.

The U.S., worlds largest consumer of oil, has decided to neglect it's own reserves.

Emerging markets are thirsty for crude as their economies expand and their citizens start to, well.....consume! Finally, the geopolitical wildcard, a one way play.

I also commented on IEO. I just don't see any oil stocks going anywhere right now during this recession. Oil hovering in the $40's a barrel even after OPEC cut production. People are travelling less. Enough said.

Oil ETF will not grow as strong as rest of economy

Crude Oil Futures

Over the last 10 years the lowest price for NYMEX light sweet crude was ~11/bbl. Adjusted for inflation it is about $15/bbl. Currently the price is $36/bbl. That means the price could drop further by ~50%. On the other hand average price of crude over the past 5 years (2003-2008) is $57. Additionally, India and China have grown by leaps and bounds and hence the price is could double from here once we are out of the recession. I do not expect S&P 500 to double.

$147 a barrel was too high, but sub-$40 is too low.

oil cannot stay cheap

Oil is going up, buy now at bottom. ETF's are the way to go with energy sector stocks

Oil down to 80?

bullmarketn09