DDR Corp. (NYSE:DDR)
The Company is in the business of acquiring, developing, redeveloping, owning, leasing and managing shopping centers.
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This is the wrong time to be a retail REIT with lots of debt and negative income for the past 3 years.
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third avenue large new holding
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high price with no support from fundamentals
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Hang in there with this co. Good management, good properties. Triple play in 1 to 3 years :)
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This met a high level screen to indicate a buy and strong outperform against its peers (other tickers in its industry). My 1st version of this spreadsheet devles deep into the company's balnace sheet and recent income statements, combined with other relevant price data for the company including insider/institutional holdings, short interest, debt levels, etc.
Testing capabilities of this 1st version of my automated, valuation spreadhseet matched with my personal criteria and see how it holds up.
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CRE boom.
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REIT with poor fundies
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DDR has been beaten down to the point where it is an extremely value-added selection. This company is a major player in the commercial real estate business with over 700 properties. Once the recession is over (and it will be) these properties stand to profit from lease arrangements.
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top player divergence to the poisitve
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They own good property and should keep paying down loans, with a div.
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Good dividend and stable financial now with Otto family contribution. Although some dilution, but the earning will make this stock soar.
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Real Estate is on the come back. FINALLY!
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Commercial Real Estate :(
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Market price is at a large discount to analyst estimates
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Target price zero. Just riding it down.
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Clearly going to zero. (May go to $5 first though) Just look at the balance sheet.
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Real estate has hit bottom. Buy now.
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stock has been pummeled
good management team
good anchors at centers
de-leveraging will hurt long term growth, but
overly priced into stock
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Overleveraged, overweight in non-core assets and lifestyle centers, poor cash management and operations quality.
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We first need to distinguish between a good company and a good stock, and a bad company and a bad stock. A good company can have overvalued stock as much as a bad company can have undervalued stock.
In my opinion, it seems like DDR is a case of 'good company' with 'undervalued stock'. Let me explain.
The bulk of DDR's problems lie with 2 key points:
- Fear of Real Estate
- Fear of Inability to Repay Near-Term Debt Obligations
For the first point,
http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/irol/88/88051/3rdQuarter_2008_Property_List.pdf
Upon a review of its property holdings, you will see that most of its anchor stores are stores such as Best Buy, Wal-Mart, Home Depot, Staples, Costco, and Supermarket Chains. The only major problems I foresee are from Mervyn's and most recently, Circuit City.
I do believe DDR's earnings will be severely hurt by this, however, it would be highly unlikely that DDR would post a loss.
And as a word of optimism,
http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?c=88051&p=irol-newsArticle&ID=1213982&highlight=
"Developers Diversified also today provided updated information regarding its investment in stores occupied by Mervyns, a privately-owned retailer with 38 locations within the Company's 730-property portfolio. Developers Diversified does not expect its financial results to be materially impacted by the retailer's recent announcement that it would liquidate, due to the protections provided to the Company by letters of credit aggregating over $32 million and significant tenant interest already expressed for the locations currently occupied by Mervyns by numerous higher credit quality retailers."
For the second point,
http://www.fool.com/news/associated-press/2008/10/20/developers-diversified-tumbles-on-debt-disclosure.aspx
And I quote "In a company statement Monday, the REIT disclosed it has $400 million of consolidated debt and $60 million of joint venture debt maturing next year. The company has $1.2 billion of consolidated and joint venture debt maturing in 2010."
So it has near-term debt oligations of $460M in 2009 and $1.2B in 2010. With dividend suspension, DDR will save $82M per quarter and a planned asset disposition will save a further $890M. That is $1.5B over 2 years. Along with free cashflow from operations, DDR will have no problem repaying its debt obligations and any interest attached to them.
This company is a strong buy with a 2-4 year time horizon.
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