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The Company is a apparel and home furnishing retailers.
The average number of diluted shares has dropped from 74M to 45M over the past 4 years. During that same time the total debt held by the company has dropped by about $150M. Most companies are taking on debt to fuel buybacks - these guys are repurchasing shares with operating earnings.Dillard's ROA (8%) is higher than Macy's, Target, and Kohl's, and is nearly as high as Nordstrom. The company has been strategically closing lower-performing stores over the past several years, yet has still found a way to increase revenues. They also own the vast majority of the stores they operate. So closing lower-performing stores not only increases performance, it also yields nice little earnings bumps along the way.Even though I'm green-thumbing this company at a "peak" (stock price and operating income are both near all-time highs), I think a PE of 12 for this company represents a good entry point. Being a southern-based retailer, they don't feel the adverse impacts of poor weather (as much).
Dillard's is running out of tricks to keep EPS growing. The company has used all its cash (and more) on buybacks, and CapEx is likely to tick up in 2014 with several new stores set to open. The retail world is super-competitive, and the department store space is particularly unfriendly. Macy's and Nordstrom are probably better bets due to their early embrace of the internet and other tech-forward innovations.
Revenues are a only a little up for Dillards in the last years but you need to dig a little further to understand why the stock multiplied by more than 18 times since 2009. Dillards is one of the few retailers generating a lot of cash flow and they have minimal capital expenditures. With the free money not used by capital expenditures they are buying back massive amount of their shares. This is having a major effect to boost the earnings per shares quarter after quarters. The trends show a rise in net earnings and if christmas 2012 is very good, this stock have the potential to make it again for another year. This is obviously a boring play that can still pay big times.
Dillard's owns almost 90% of the buildings and land that they occupy. This mean's that Dillard's only has to pay a lease on 10% of their stores. No other retailer can cut costs like that because they don't own their stores!
Old school retail. Boring.
I don't care that I have been wrong about this many times before and am likely wrong now... I just cannot believe it! If it was so easy, why didn't they turn a profit for all those years of low unemployment?
Dillard's has made some fundamental changes in it's buying offices that have significantly improved its bottom line, thus supporting the meteoric rise of DDS. However, I believe that trading at over 45 is about the hype and not the substance.
Just had a big run up, small profit margin, stagnating (slightly declining) revenues, and sitting under a big pile of debt.
DDS should peak any day now as reality lets the steam out of the government's current "We're in a recovery!" propaganda campaign. Discretionary spending is rapidly becoming impossible for tens of millions of Americans and is being viewed as unfashionable by millions more. If you're financially suicidal, by all means buy home builders and dept. stores. Otherwise, leave them alone for a while--say maybe 10 years or so.
UGLIEST profit chart I have seen inalmost all retail. Have you been in a storelately ? Even at christmas you could heara pin drop
hmm... wasn't expecting this stock to move from $3.50 to $15 before entering bankruptcy. Detours always add spice to life.
Lost $80,000. when the market hit bottom. Don't want to losse it again and wil it go to $20.
I'm been trying to short this. Anyone have some, I'll give it back at about 8.00
Dillards got plenty of money on hand and they owned 95% of allproperty. Remember K-Mart bought Sears.Now they are closing allthe stores that under performing.
Ut Oh. Someone doesn't have enough money to pay their bills!
Unfortunately this isn't a Christmas movie, so we might not get a happy ending this year.
I have been following this company for a long time. I went all in two days before the March rally and sold off sometime in April, believing it to be a small bump in a long slow destruction of value in non-globalized companies catering to the dieing American Debt Machine. Now... As someone else stated, DDS seems to be the worst of the bunch. Not only is revenue down this year by 13%, but they were already losing money even before our consumer based debt machine had its heart attack. They seem to be closing stores by the month, which, along with aggressive inventory and cost reduction, could do them wonders in the short-term; I expect that this is what accounts for the insider rally recently, but investors are soon going to be greatly disappointed when they realize that real growth is never going to return. Think about it....... Dillards is trading for the same price as it was BEFORE this crisis hit pubic consciousness last year... Either someone knows something else important, or this is a perfect case of over-exuberant optimism. I just bought puts for January.
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