Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)

Surprise, surprise!

Against all odds, like a gnarled dandelion growing defiantly out of the wasteland that is retail, Dillard's posted a profit.

That was the headline. But let's take a look at the story.

This is mostly from Reuters, but will look through it more in the next few days. They posted a profit of $0.11 per share compared to last year's same quarter loss of $0.76. Not bad. $0.14 is from a tax credit of some kind, Reuters is calling it a tax benefit. Sales down 9.9% on a 4.2% increase on margin. Inventory down 22% and lots of cost cutting. They're certainly getting lean. This looks more like they will survive in the long run, but it's not exactly looking all that great for growth at the moment, though Christmas will bring people into the stores again, at least those who are still working.

On this mixed bag of news shares rose 9%, making the share price $14.51. If they continue to post the same earnings, this makes their forward P/E 33. But a lot of estimates I've seen put forward earnings at something more like .05 - .15 for the whole of next year.

Haven't seen guidance yet, but I'm not seeing any story telling me this is worth $14.51 now or anytime in the next year.

topped

Ut Oh. Someone doesn't have enough money to pay their bills!

Portefeuille12. This dog's price has runup too far. The stock price ought to tumble as investors rotate out of the retail and consumer sectors.

Unfortunately this isn't a Christmas movie, so we might not get a happy ending this year.

I have been following this company for a long time. I went all in two days before the March rally and sold off sometime in April, believing it to be a small bump in a long slow destruction of value in non-globalized companies catering to the dieing American Debt Machine.

Now... As someone else stated, DDS seems to be the worst of the bunch. Not only is revenue down this year by 13%, but they were already losing money even before our consumer based debt machine had its heart attack.

They seem to be closing stores by the month, which, along with aggressive inventory and cost reduction, could do them wonders in the short-term; I expect that this is what accounts for the insider rally recently, but investors are soon going to be greatly disappointed when they realize that real growth is never going to return. Think about it....... Dillards is trading for the same price as it was BEFORE this crisis hit pubic consciousness last year... Either someone knows something else important, or this is a perfect case of over-exuberant optimism.

I just bought puts for January.

High debt, declining sales, big losses, and too many underperforming stores make this retailer a candidate for bankruptcy. Shorting DDS is as close to a sure thing as you can get.

Stock has tripled but I can't really see why. Heavy losses, exposure to the consumer and the home-furnishing consumer at that.

Department stores are struggling, we all know that - but this company is the worst of the bunch - there is a reason they are named one of the least admired companies every single year.

All High-end retailers will crash. This recession is just getting started.

I was in a Dillards store last night-pretty much by myself. There were employees standing around everywhere with no one to help. I had one ask me if I needed assistance, but most just stood there looking straigt ahead. Customers were almost nil. I looked at some of their goods, and the prices were very high. Despite a decade of underperformance, Dillards management has not gotten the message. They lack a reason for being. If I want to pay full price for clothing, there are better choices, such as Macys which has a much larger selection, and runs aggressive ads. Dillards ads are more to tell you that they are still open-they very seldom have anything compelling to offer in their ads. Last night was my first visit in over a year, and probably my last for at least another year, and I was looking to purchase. I went to another store and bought dress shirts last night, but Dillards gave me no reason to leave any money at their registers. Inexplicably this stock is up almost 200% in the last 3-4 months. I think short is the way to go.

Dillards is a real heavyweight within the brick retailers, with a vast amount of their holdings in the south and southwest. Dillards needs to reduce the number of poorly operating stores and interject outside senior management to improve operating procedures and reduce family members micro-managing every aspect of their operation.

TDRH Play

DDS has an illiquid balance sheet. It is also loss making.

If you don't know why this is going to underperform class, then you have not been paying attention.

retail is a tough business in this environment.

Higher end retail stores are not going to be singing christmas carols this year

Awful balance sheet, poor inventory and real estate management. DDS is an antiquated retailer that failed to adjust and is paying the price.

Hmmm something may be going on funny here
http://www.footnoted.org/buried-treasure/what-are-they-shopping-for-at-dillards/

eh it's "meh" retailer running big losses last two Q's with debt anyway.