Dillard's, Inc. (DDS)

Personal investigation of stores: Very badly centrally managed company.

Can't remember the last time I shopped there or heard someone say, "oh this? I got it at Dillard's." America shops at Old Navy, Gap & Wal-Mart. A good buy at half the current price.

High debt, declining sales, big losses, and too many underperforming stores make this retailer a candidate for bankruptcy. Shorting DDS is as close to a sure thing as you can get.

TDRH Play

DDS has an illiquid balance sheet. It is also loss making.

I made a 98% profit on DDS over the last 14 months. I sold and bought twice. I'm up 48% on the third go round. My rationale is that it is the best performing stock I own.

Undervalued. Not the best numbers, but is a stock waiting to burst open. If you are willing to wait. Now is the time to get in at a great value. The classic buy low and sell high

I think DDS is a great company. If you think back to about 3-4 years ago or longer. DDS found there ninch and right now. I believe DDS is trying to compete with Macy's and walmart's customers. What they need to do is go back to how they did business before, like 5+ years ago. They will find there company does extreamly better long term. Right now, I do expect that this company goes out of business. The one reason why i keep looking at it, is to the fact that I am hoping someone takes over this company and saves the jobs, and saves the Dillard name from being bankrupted. Another Positive I like about DDS is the fact that DDS is old school to there customers. Everything this one on one with the customers, compared to how Macy's and other chains get what merchandice they want and check out, without the one on one attention. How are customers suppose to know the benefit of the merchandise? DDS by far blows everyone else out of the water. As of now on there current level. I see this stock getting lower and lower. The DDS executives need to do whatever they can to put DDS back where they were 5+ years ago. They should also close under performing stores like Springfield Missouri and other locations.

retail is dismal

If you don't know why this is going to underperform class, then you have not been paying attention.

I'm still hoping for more consolidation in this sector. I don't think Dillards is going to be a buyer, so they is a good chance they will get bought out.

Short this thing to 0.

its going to be a poor xmas

I was in a Dillards store last night-pretty much by myself. There were employees standing around everywhere with no one to help. I had one ask me if I needed assistance, but most just stood there looking straigt ahead. Customers were almost nil. I looked at some of their goods, and the prices were very high. Despite a decade of underperformance, Dillards management has not gotten the message. They lack a reason for being. If I want to pay full price for clothing, there are better choices, such as Macys which has a much larger selection, and runs aggressive ads. Dillards ads are more to tell you that they are still open-they very seldom have anything compelling to offer in their ads. Last night was my first visit in over a year, and probably my last for at least another year, and I was looking to purchase. I went to another store and bought dress shirts last night, but Dillards gave me no reason to leave any money at their registers. Inexplicably this stock is up almost 200% in the last 3-4 months. I think short is the way to go.

economy on downturn high ticket items will not be in the demand plus fuel pricing making delievery very expensive

over priced

Surprise, surprise!

Against all odds, like a gnarled dandelion growing defiantly out of the wasteland that is retail, Dillard's posted a profit.

That was the headline. But let's take a look at the story.

This is mostly from Reuters, but will look through it more in the next few days. They posted a profit of $0.11 per share compared to last year's same quarter loss of $0.76. Not bad. $0.14 is from a tax credit of some kind, Reuters is calling it a tax benefit. Sales down 9.9% on a 4.2% increase on margin. Inventory down 22% and lots of cost cutting. They're certainly getting lean. This looks more like they will survive in the long run, but it's not exactly looking all that great for growth at the moment, though Christmas will bring people into the stores again, at least those who are still working.

On this mixed bag of news shares rose 9%, making the share price $14.51. If they continue to post the same earnings, this makes their forward P/E 33. But a lot of estimates I've seen put forward earnings at something more like .05 - .15 for the whole of next year.

Haven't seen guidance yet, but I'm not seeing any story telling me this is worth $14.51 now or anytime in the next year.

Higher end retail stores are not going to be singing christmas carols this year

I have been following this company for a long time. I went all in two days before the March rally and sold off sometime in April, believing it to be a small bump in a long slow destruction of value in non-globalized companies catering to the dieing American Debt Machine.

Now... As someone else stated, DDS seems to be the worst of the bunch. Not only is revenue down this year by 13%, but they were already losing money even before our consumer based debt machine had its heart attack.

They seem to be closing stores by the month, which, along with aggressive inventory and cost reduction, could do them wonders in the short-term; I expect that this is what accounts for the insider rally recently, but investors are soon going to be greatly disappointed when they realize that real growth is never going to return. Think about it....... Dillards is trading for the same price as it was BEFORE this crisis hit pubic consciousness last year... Either someone knows something else important, or this is a perfect case of over-exuberant optimism.

I just bought puts for January.