The Walt Disney Company (DIS)

i like diseny because i a fun place to fun .

DIS is about to take a dive. It's amazing they've managed to do as well as they have for so long considering the distressed areas many of their main products are in--media, parks, recreation, cruising and consumer discretionary products.

In 1998 I was looking into a few stocks so I could make my first stock buy. Disney was a possibility. They had just split 3 for 1 and were trading around $30/share. I felt that they were not the best choice and went with MSFT instead. Since then they have gone nowhere and I don't feel they are in any better shape now than they were then.

Consumer discretionary won't be returning for another few quarters in any kind of strong numbers. Growth-adjusted PE is nearly twice the industry average.

I got on for a few weeks I didn't know why the HELL this was gaining, (was it me or was it not long ago that everyone was watching what they spent???). I didn't know why I originally picked it but it went up. Now I think I am doing the right thing this time and shorting it. When inflation kicks in this will hit an all time low.

The parks are way too expensive given the economy. Movies are also too expensive. Free digital will grow and grow.

short term momentum screen

Although they have a strong, established brand, the simple fact is that people are cutting back on entertainment/discretionary spending. Park attendance will be down this year, DVD sales are down (with nothing big on the horizon) but their fixed costs remain high.

Don't expect big things from their parks division for at least a year.

This stock is largely dependent on consumer spending, and there isn't a lot of that going on now. I can't imagine joe and jane smith dropping two grand this christmas on a trip to disney.

No brainer. We are in a recession. This will be the worst recession any of us has seen. Disneyland is almost $300 for a family of four to get past the turnstiles. I need more consumer stock ideas to short.

Who has money to go? Everyone isn't wealth or close to it. Will pick up but not right now.

Fear of recession, people will stop spending for a few months at the very least.

Sorry Mickey

Tough times are going to hit the pocketbooks of people who would normally venture to the parks and shell out for Disney DVDs. They've got more to shed before they bounce back off of the baby boom that seems to be hitting us.

With the refinance craze long over, the funds to take the family to Disney will dry up. Coupled with the inevitable Disney destruction of Pixar and movie sales will drop. NBC recently reported that local advertising is drying up, which can not bode well for Disney's ABC / ESPN affiliates. Sell now, buy later.

Gas Prices and other issues have hurt the stock. Media from Disney needs to be produced.

trying a couple experiments, which hopefully wont mess up my whole portfolio. trying to follow the downtrend.

Reports from WDW in July reveal rather low attendance. Visitors say longest waits at major attractions are 30 minutes or less rather than the usual 60+ minutes. Attendance is definitely down. Soft economy, high gas prices, etc. are taking a bite out of Mickey's cheese, I'm sad to say.

I own a fair chunk of DIS, so I hope I'm wrong, but we'll have to wait and see.