Dendreon Corp (NASDAQ:DNDN)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

A biotechnology company focused on the discovery, development and commercialization of novel therapeutics that harness the immune system to fight cancer.

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Member Avatar siri22 (< 20) Submitted: 3/4/2014 1:55:39 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.08 DNDN Score: -13.51

with Europe and world around corner, this stock will make money

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Member Avatar SqwiiTrader (37.30) Submitted: 11/9/2013 10:49:00 AM : Outperform Start Price: $2.60 DNDN Score: -3.31

TOS prediction

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Member Avatar bIlluminati (30.14) Submitted: 11/7/2013 3:49:49 PM : Underperform Start Price: $2.38 DNDN Score: -4.81

Except for Provenge, no products. Significant lead time for new product, burning money, sales down.

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Member Avatar Herbstmd (52.86) Submitted: 11/5/2013 3:12:34 PM : Underperform Start Price: $2.57 DNDN Score: +2.42

Nothing new in cancer, and competitors products appear to have advantages. No real expectation of expanded sales.

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Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.73) Submitted: 10/24/2013 5:45:54 PM : Underperform Start Price: $2.39 DNDN Score: -4.48

In seven years of following biopharma stocks, I can remember two instances where I was absolutely flabbergasted by a phase III trial success. One was Delcath's positive results for their PHP system in metastatic melanoma in April 2010, and the other was Dendreon's success in the IMPACT trial in April 2009. In both cases I went heavily into negative territory with my underperform picks, gave up on the picks for significant losses, and then eventually kicked myself when both stocks fell back to their pre-trial levels and subsequently carved out new lows. I also continued to trash my score with both stocks, attempting ill-advised outperforms for comebacks that were too small and too late when they finally arrived.

I still suspect that Dendreon somehow found a way to game the IMPACT trial to meet the primary endpoint after missing it in the interim analysis. Many have said that the commercial weakness of Provenge, aside from reimbursement concerns, is related to oncologists not being convinced by the data despite FDA approval. Although I don't see the FDA as a reed blowing in the winds of public opinion, the fact remains that the pressure brought against the agency prior to the approval of Provenge was unprecedented. I have seen the FDA approve drugs like Adasuve and Zelrix that are useless or superfluous after prior rejections, and I believe at a certain point if the drug isn't clearly harmful they will throw up their hands and let the marketplace make the ultimate call on whether the drug survives.

In the case of Provenge, I believe that call has been made, and it isn't a favorable one for Dendreon. The latest quarterly revenues were disappointing, the burn continues to be prodigious, and institutional owners are dumping the stock. A favorable opinion from CHMP on Provenge approval in Europe was basically a blip on the long-term price chart. Dendreon will always have its cheerleaders until their share price approaches zero and probably afterwards, but my assessment is that bankruptcy is only a matter of time.

I did learn a valuable lesson from greenthumbing Dendreon along with many other stocks that I didn't believe in long-term. While these stocks will often shock the street by doubling overnight on a positive development after a long period of decline, it's very difficult to get the timing right so that even the double makes the trader whole. What happens more often is that the double doesn't happen until the trader is down 60% from his starting price, he holds on against his own better judgement to try to get back to even, and then rides the stock back down to the bottom of the hole again once the catalyst proves to be bogus. Be very careful buying declining stocks for a rebound if you don't believe in the story. It just doesn't work.

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Member Avatar sosa50 (73.28) Submitted: 10/21/2013 5:24:18 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.40 DNDN Score: +3.85

Speculative takeover candidate...desperately needs sugar daddy to save a good drug from a marketing and implementation nightmare!

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Member Avatar usubanas (99.53) Submitted: 10/21/2013 11:51:01 AM : Underperform Start Price: $2.45 DNDN Score: -1.26

slow and painful path to bankruptcy

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Member Avatar pavlos1971 (99.69) Submitted: 9/17/2013 4:29:10 PM : Underperform Start Price: $3.25 DNDN Score: +27.46

IMHO, it will be very hard for this company to make money in time for a miracle resurgence. The technology was promising back 5 years ago, but not great, and it is still very tedious and very expensive. In the meanwhile, there exist cheaper, faster, more reliable ways to help patients with pancreatic cancer, and the competitive landscape gets wider every couple of months. Today's jump in the stock price was due to authorization for marketing in the EU, but I think these news are too late and too little. The company was spending more than it was making in the US, so their model just doesn't scale. I see little room for improvements or further therapies coming out of DNDN, but sometimes I wish I'm wrong (even though I am short stock and own puts in RL).

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Member Avatar AndrewGreenBull (99.32) Submitted: 8/9/2013 10:03:29 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.75 DNDN Score: -39.11

Revenue of Provenge actually is not a surprise, once DNDN get a nod from the European Medicine Agency, we will see a rapid growth. The possibility is very high, because DNDN recently got positive opinion from the board. Decision should be made in couple month

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Member Avatar BACnumber1 (< 20) Submitted: 3/8/2013 11:21:10 AM : Underperform Start Price: $5.99 DNDN Score: +75.89

Now look. I love most pharma companies. However there is no cure for cancer and very little progress has been made for a cure in the past many years. I am way more bullish on stocks like ARNA and NVO, as diabetes is an epidemic which IS on the other hand gaining momentum....

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Member Avatar NHWeston102 (81.52) Submitted: 2/15/2013 1:41:06 PM : Underperform Start Price: $6.19 DNDN Score: +79.60

Peaked and headed down.

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Member Avatar wayouy (< 20) Submitted: 2/1/2013 3:51:04 PM : Outperform Start Price: $5.97 DNDN Score: -78.88

price per dose will fall in line with market pricing and sales will increase leading to profitability, plus huge short position makes it worth the risk at this price pint

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Member Avatar Frimax32 (< 20) Submitted: 1/4/2013 12:09:59 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.10 DNDN Score: -84.07

I understand they bottomed out and FDA has become tolerant

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Member Avatar Investstack (< 20) Submitted: 11/16/2012 11:06:08 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.98 DNDN Score: -71.70

The imunization technology goes well beyond prostate cancer and can be applied to many cancers and has been patented. Expansion to Europe and Asia will help but ongoing tests of use of Provenge for earlier stage prostate and other cancers offer a potentially new form of cure with little to no side effects. Could be a buyout but the technology has a high value once management comes up with a plan to expand use.

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Member Avatar rrdas (< 20) Submitted: 10/31/2012 9:33:03 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.82 DNDN Score: -62.21

Time to buy DNDN. When everyone is scared and its time to be greedy. It will run like PCYC.

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Member Avatar islandsunsetter (< 20) Submitted: 6/14/2012 1:47:56 AM : Outperform Start Price: $7.30 DNDN Score: -104.54

Nice strong bounce on lots of good rumors.

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Member Avatar FWWright (< 20) Submitted: 6/13/2012 4:44:48 PM : Outperform Start Price: $7.30 DNDN Score: -104.54

I think Provenge will be part of a multiple treatment path for a subset of Prostate cancer patients and thus the product will survive. Also, DNDN has an FDA approved facility that could be used for other personalized-vaccines. Finally, the stock is way oversold and should benefit from some short-covering.

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Member Avatar Fishboy1970 (< 20) Submitted: 6/10/2012 8:15:33 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.36 DNDN Score: -97.25

Zytiga will not get through the FDA and be approved in the pre-chemo setting. ASCO presentation says Provenge goes first!

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Member Avatar rparnell76 (< 20) Submitted: 5/3/2012 12:30:03 AM : Outperform Start Price: $11.75 DNDN Score: -110.26

I think they will do well now that they are on the move up. We will see.

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Member Avatar rightminded (< 20) Submitted: 3/2/2012 6:23:25 AM : Outperform Start Price: $11.51 DNDN Score: -112.40

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