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Looks like Real Estate is finally hitting bottom.
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Love betting against the leveraged ETFs, these guys degrade with time.
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This was a pick gone wrong - I intended to short it.
However I am keeping it - as a reminder of where we were - and whether in what order do we revisit.
We are in a bear market - and with the exception of the 1998 scare(or the 1987 crash) - Bears don't give up - especially in weak economic environment.
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Pair Trade
Short DRN and DRV
Let the contango take 'em both out.
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This one seems simple. You have 8.93% of all mortgages at 90 days late or MORE up from 5.79% same time last year. Eventually this "shadow inventory" will have to be chipped away at, and REITs will have to recognize losses on some of the "assets".
Stats taken from http://mortgage.freedomblogging.com/2010/05/05/8-4-of-o-c-late-on-house-payment/31131/ See for yourself.
Recs
Government tax credits have expired, looks likely the bottom will fall on housing, again.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/208418-is-housing-already-double-dipping?source=email
http://seekingalpha.com/article/208266-is-a-housing-double-dip-on-the-way?source=email
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Ultra-shorts and Ultra-pros are all bad investments due to daily rebalancing
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Because ultras suck
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Half-life period of leveraged ETF is inversely proportional to its volatility.
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