Dollar Thrifty Automotive Gp (NYSE:DTG)
The Company's operations operates company-owned stores under the Dollar brand and the Thrifty brand, provides vehicle leasing to franchisees, operates reservation centers for both brands and conducts sales and marketing activities for both brands.
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That P/E is as high as Mount Everest :)
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The stock's fundamentals don't look very good.
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Take the name of this company to heart. Dollar is right, and that's where it's going thwiftly.
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Going with the crowd. Recession and cost cutting across companies and individuals will hurt travel industry in general
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Debt looks very likely to chop them up! Stiff competition, crazy run-up, horrid niche in a horrid economy. WTF?
Read the thread...
http://caps.fool.com/Pitch/DTG/4054181/geez-welcome-to-fantasyland-wh.aspx
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Short squeeze !!!
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Big debt looks like a fast eddie type stock.
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I can copy UltraLong too. Not sure if UL got this one from a quantitative screen, but it sure looks ripe now.
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Ultralong says so.
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Following Ultralong's picks is:
1. Popular
2. Effective
3. Fun
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Geez!!! Welcome to fantasyland, where all of your magical dreams come true and unicorns dance in the meadows. I wonder if money also grows on trees in this magical land as well. Who ya gonna call? Ghostbusters maybe...perhaps they can exorcise the demons possessing this stock. Ok ok...im done, now to the meat and potatoes....
Its crap! Can I stop there? Oh all right...fine! Dollar Thrifty has taken a pile of dipsticks and turned into a log cabin. How??? I don't have the SLIGHTEST (where is the damn bold key) idea! This company derives 67% of its revenues from Florida, California, Hawaii, Arizona, Texas and Nevada, 5 of the 6 hardest hit states when it comes to housing prices and vacations. If you could pick the absolute worst markets to maintain a rental car business you'd have Thrifty Auto!
$1,851,500,000 in debt. Allow me to repeat that.... 1 billion, 851 million, 500 thousand dollars in debt, and heres the maturity schedule....
2009: 189.8M
2010: 512.3M
2011: 510.9M
2012: 510.4M
2013: 128.1M
Change...can anyone spare some change???
Factor in that whopping 93 million dollars in cash they have with only about 210M in revolving credit available and you have a recipe for disaster, or a massive secondary, you choose your poison. Debt to equity of nearly 3.6....yikes!
DTG is slated to lose roughly 85 cents in 2009 and 19 cents per share in 2010. For a company that is incredibly dependent on profits to make their debt payments, this doesn't look healthy at all. Are they in compliance of their covenants right now; yes. Will they be by late 2010.... uhhhhh no!
Do I think someone has been passing around the opiates, uhhhh yes! True valuation here is in the $3-5 range.
UltraLong
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I am already down 30% in the 2 days I've been holding this short position, but I'm going to hang in there.
This company has nothing to justify it's current valuation. Nothing. Whatever momentum trading strategies are being employed to push this stock up will crush it when reality inevitably kicks in.
Look at the revenue growth and profit margin numbers--do those justify the valuation or the stock run-up? Companies need to make a return on their investment--is their return attractive? Should I risk holding equity in this company when it is in a combination of the auto/travel sectors? Does this sound like a market out-performer, or even a market matcher? Is this a good place in the market to put my money for risk-adjusted return?
If the answer to any of those questions is "No"--don't buy this stock.
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stock up over 1500% during past three months, presumably on perception of reduced exposure to general automotive sector troubles, green shoots, and because Americans will be traveling more domestically. Pretty weak rationale for such a move. Also, significant debt.
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Merger=smart.
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Rental businesses increase over the summer and Dollar mgmt has done their due diligence.
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debt debt debt debt debt
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Executive decisions demonstrate that the company is similar to , a ship with an unskilled Captain at the helm . Hope Investors will abandon ship before it sinks . The Executive Officers have their Golden Parachutes ; with which to escape ,
no worse for wear .
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