DB Crude Oil Double Short (AMEX:DTO)

declining ability to compete will drag stock down

Will lose tracking accuracy if held more than 1 day, so definitely will underperform in the long run. No brainer.

Iran

I thought I set this one lower, but I guess I bungled it. At least this one went in in my intended direction. My range on oil has been upset slightly, but I still believe in my play.

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I have a personal bias that puts crude between $78 and $92.
Analysts are extremely wide ranging, a few even expect $6x oil next year when Libya brings it's production back online. Some other analysts are calling $200.00, but I haven't bothered to read their drivel to see what their irrationale rationale is. I should at least read it to be more balanced, or get a laugh. Part of it may be a play on Iran. If things do go South there, then I agree that I'm in trouble, but I don't invest based on low odds catalysts.
My belief is that when one spigot opens another will close.
Opec has a hard need to get $80+ per barrel to support the infrastructure and entitlements oil spawned in the region.
The economic level doesn't support greater than $90 for any length of time.
Greater than $92 oil is a result of speculation.
I'll trade equities between $78 and $88 leaving some margin.
I won't bet against speclators, so I'm not calling oil down in RL, but I will call it up if it bottoms again.

Again, my personal bias that is worth the bits it's now stored on.....

WTI/Brent going to get hedged away. Pipelines being reversed. Need more leveraged volatility plays anyway for balance.

The leverage in these along with rebalancing and management costs, plus the long-term upward trend in markets makes them poor performers over the long term. Easy red thumb points.

Dollar to rise with EU crisis and the end of QE

Oil prices have risen due to issues in Egypt and Libya. Libya is only 3% of world supply and should restart producing at full capacity soon. So the increase in price of oil is not justified and it will fall. I am hoping to see the price of oil around $70-80 and I will sell.

Oil is over extended. Should come down to at least $75 a barrel. I will end this position when oil reaches $75.

Ultra-shorts and Ultra-pros are all bad investments due to daily rebalancing

Stocks will go up more than oil goes down.

oil should roll over

Double short oil? not a good long term play.

Expect this to underperform as we enter spring and into summer.

Bad news has battered the market and it is time for a rally. I recommend shorting this etf. Over the long term the expenses of this etf alone will eat away at gains. A combination of this and the fact that at some point the market will move higher will result in this etf under-performing dramatically.

Because Ultras Suck

this is just to earn some CAPs credit as per my bet on USO