Dyax Corp. (NASDAQ:DYAX)

Accuracy is a harsh mistress. I feel like I've had a good handle on Dyax the last few years, but on reviewing my total score for the stock it comes out close to zero. That's the result of not wanting to close my sole losing pick for years on the off chance that it would turn around and bring my pick into the green. Many other players with high accuracy continue to maintain badly losing picks, giving the impression they are still defending positions that they would have given up much earlier if not for the meaningless parameter of accuracy.

In reality, there's likely a formula for judging when a score has gone south enough that it's better to take the accuracy hit and close. Usually I hold too long, especially since I play the same harem of two hundred stocks. I'm trying to dump my losers earlier but it's a hard thing to do, especially with the red thumbs that could give me back 500 points overnight with a failed trial or adverse side effect.

All that aside, I've continued to follow Dyax and I'm in the process of working my score and overall accuracy back into the winning column. I recently rode Dyax up from the trough of 1.12 in August, and now I'm seeing a 20% jump in the last week that I can't justify. Is this a true breakout? Don't ask me, I can't tell the difference. The best I can do is see that price momentum and volume seem to be slowing back down after a spike which means there's a good chance that the upward move won't be maintained.

Dyax continues to book rather weak Kalbitor revenues and burn cash. They have predicted cash flow neutrality in 2013 but I'm skeptical. Meanwhile, the approval of Shire's competing anti-HAE drug Firazyr and the withdrawal of the MAA for Kalbitor have cast further shadows on long-term growth prospects. The company has gone deeper into debt with a recent 20M financing secured by royalties from the LFRP program. The interest rate is 13% which will drop to 12% in August. Yuck.

LFRP is the wild card here, but the company has projected only 70-85M in total revenues in 2016. I think their projected numbers of 110-125M for Kalbitor in the same year are very optimistic, so I have to assume LFRP gets the same treatment. Overall, I see Dyax as in for a very long struggle unless some larger company with a big appetite thinks the potential is bigger than the debt.

insider buying

see this post.
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/dyax/556162.

Should get some play.

I believe the stock price has reached a floor. Institutions & insiders have started buying in large quantities.
I like betting with insiders who have a stake in the game.

First approval of a drug to treat a disease that until now had very few treatment options. This company is a buy-out candidate.

Just received FDA approval for lead drug DX-88, the company has spent a lot of time marketing and preparing for release of the drug, so the approval is big news for HAE application. Also working with Cubist Pharm as a blood inhibitor for open heart surgery, so the drug has additional potential there as well. Proprietary technology with phage display offers a nice supplement to ongoing drug research, so my guess is that we will either see DYAX perform well over the next couple of years, or a bigger player may take notice and offer to buy them out.

12/01/2009 FDA Class 2

until drug approval

The thing to know about Dyax is that the HAE indication for DX-88 is mostly beneficial to get the drug approved for human use. Once DX-88 is approved, it is available for off label indications like CABG, currently in phase II trials. If a couple surgeons see better outcomes with DX-88 in their solutions (and the trials are quite promising), the drug will become very popular very quickly regardless of what the on-label indications are.

great bio-tech partners - with lots of "magic beans" in pipeline

better off investing in magic beans

finding a partner to sell their top drug will boost the stock (the successful completion of phase III sent the stock up by 50% in a day, but that didn't last. Make use of it)

Well organized and focused

Hot New Products....stock took a beating....when Genzyme deal feel through...This stock due for a nice come back....sell on announcement

Too many promising projects inside their pipeline.

Development of new medicine, pending outcome of further research and medical experimentation.

Yeah, yeah, yeah, lets see if any of their candidates get past large scale phase III trials. Lets see if the patients have kidneys and liver left afterwards.

If it gets approved money will flow.