+ Watch EBIX
on My Watchlist
The Company is an international provider of software and Internet-based solutions for the insurance industry.
p/e 10.4short float 41% maybe see squeeze out soon
Massively undervalued at the time of the Goldman buyout collapse. I think they'll probably approach their previous position around $20-22
#34) On January 24, 2014 at 8:46 AM, ThisIsFor2053 (59.83) wrote:EBIXA 15-year-old Amish boy and his father were in a mall. They were amazed by almost everything they saw, but especially by two shiny, silver walls that could move apart and then slide back together again.The boy asked, 'What is this Father?' The father (never having seen an elevator) responded, 'Son, I have never seen anything like this in my life, I don't know what it is.'While the boy and his father were watching with amazement, a fat old lady in a wheel chair moved up to the moving walls and pressed a button. The walls opened, and the lady rolled between them into a small room. The walls closed and the boy and his father watched the small numbers above the walls light up sequentially.They continued to watch until it reached the last number… and then the numbers began to light in the reverse order. Finally the walls opened up again and a gorgeous 24-year-old blonde stepped out.The father, not taking his eyes off the young woman, said quietly to his son..... 'Son, go get your Mother...'
Turn key system for corporate and government healthcare exchanges. More corporations and governments will be moving to exchanges to drive increased competition making EBIX a winner for consumers and shareholders.
Shorts wrong. None of fraud allegations prove out.
Short Squeeze, Earning reports, change in Call's purchased, affordable medical care exchange activities, price is discounted well below true market value. EBIX has the lowest PE ratio's in comparison to its competitors as a result of shorting strategies and false misleading articles. 100 Million stock repurchase program. They are th e best value growth stock I can see at the moment.
Long. Software for insurance industry. Revs up consistently, 1 analyst. 6x ttm PE.
The shorts talk up an extremely emotional screen of smoke and lies. Ebix's accounting is faultless.
Ebix’s had a 11% earnings yield and 205.7% ROC a quarter ago with debt about the same as annual earnings. I like its growth model as it stands and support it wholeheartedly.
WOW is right
Stock oversold following initial announcement of investigation. If allegations end up being overstated, then company has quality portfolio of products needed for insurance industry to fall back on.
Investors should consider selling puts. You can achieve some very high annualized returns at strikes significantly below the current price. e.g.Sep 13 $9.00 strike at 65¢ has 28% discount and 39% annualized return.
Criminal probe needs time to settle
I don't think it can go much lower.
Great cash flow
Why EBIX Is A Double In The Next 3-6 MonthsEBIX has been getting lots of attention in recent months due to Gotham City's short posts and SEC investigation. However, I think during times like these it is important to take a step back and think about the possible outcomes. Fundamentally, EBIX is a high quality business with strong, recurring free cash flow and minimal capex needs. This favorable annuity-style free cash flow stream allows EBIX to return significant capital to shareholders. EBIX currently yields 3.2% and repurchased $118MM of stock since 2008 or 34% of current market cap. At today's price, EBIX trades at just 5x FCF or a 20% FCF yield. Now lets work through some math on the valuation.Bull case (25% probability): SEC investigation results in no issues, EBIX fixes corporate governance issues, and management and the board can refocus on organic growth and finding accretive acquisitions. In this case, I expect EBIX to trade back to its historical average P/E multiple of 15x. On 2013 EPS of $1.87, EBIX is a $28 stock.Base case (50% probability): SEC investigation finds some corporate governance issues, possibly even Raina departs or is removed from his CEO role. In this case, the strong free cash flow will not be adversely impacted. Corporate governance issues will be repaired over time but the company's reputation with investors will be damaged. In this case, I value EBIX at 10x P/E which results in a $20 stock price.Bear case (25% probability): SEC investigation results in material misstatements of financials and the company needs to restate historical financial information. In this case, EBIX will likely trade to 4x P/E while the company is in the restatement period which could take as long as 12-24 months. This values EBIX at $7.50. Even in this case, EBIX's software platform still generates substantial FCF and is a high quality business which could be sold to private equity so there is no chance that EBIX is worth 0.I estimate EBIX's fair value based on the above scenarios and probabilities at $19 (110% upside). The margin of safety lies in the strong underlying free cash flow that the business generates and the company's ability to repurchase stock and increase the dividend. Buying at just 5x FCF, over a 50% discount to fair value provides a significant margin of safety.EBIX's story is very similar to HLF over the last six months. A short seller created and presented a presentation on why HLF was a fraud, citing some valid issues, but over exaggerated his points. The stock fell 44% to $25. At the trough, HLF traded to 5x P/E, exactly where EBIX is now trading. The company used the opportunity to repurchase stock which was highly accretive. In the next month, HLF subsequently rebounded 80% back to its price prior the short seller's presentation. I expect similar price action from EBIX and recommend investors with a 3-6 month time horizon accumulate EBIX shares at these bargain prices.
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