+ Watch ECYT
on My Watchlist
No need to say more: http://www.thestreet.com/story/12441443/1/the-endocyte-bear-thesis-why-march-will-be-a-bad-month.html
When Endocyte ran over 16 in July I was skeptical of the steep climb and cautioned longs that it might be wise to take some gains off the table. The stock proceeded to run as high as 19, so when it began to drop back down I was quick to close my red thumb when I had a winning score. The stock has continued to drop, however, to a degree I find surprising given the potential effect of upcoming catalysts. A CHMP decision on conditional approval of vintafolide is still expected before the end of 2013, topline PFS data from the TARGET phase IIb trial of vintafolide in NSCLC is expected in Q1 2014, and an interim analysis of the PROCEED phase III trial of vintafolide in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer is planned for H1 2014.There's an obvious overhang to these catalysts, which is the failure of vintafolide to demonstrate an overall survival benefit in the PRECEDENT phase II trial in platinum-resistant ovarian cancer in 2011. That failure could result in a rejection of vintafolide by CHMP and could also be a negative indicator for the outcomes of ongoing trials. A recent Seeking Alpha article from PropThink briefly reversed the downward momentum in the stock but selling and decline have resumed. Notable recent insider and institutional activity has included 15000 shares sold by the CEO and a VP between 14 and 18, as well as a substantial reduction in holdings by healthcare hedge fund Orbimed.Is the smart money exiting Endocyte ahead of a negative CHMP recommendation on vintafolide? Very possibly. This stock is certainly not for the conservative biopharma trader as it could get cut in half again with the negative catalyst. On the other hand, proof of "regulatory concept" for the drug could initiate a renewed steep climb to a billion dollar valuation. One approach might be to wait for the current downward decline to clearly stabilize, enter gingerly ahead of CHMP. and then attempt to recover any losses by carefullly playing an overreaction in the case of a rejection.
ECYT Will and has made millions of dollars and this is just the beginning. Unless they have an unseen setback with their drugs in the pipeline. My prediction is the stock quadruples x2
heavy insider trading
Endocyte Inc. (ECYT) is a bio-pharmaceutical Company developing targeted therapies for the treatment of cancer and inflammatory diseases. It uses its proprietary technology to create novel small molecule drug conjugates, or SMDCs, and companion imaging diagnose. Company website - http://www.endocyte.com/The company currently has three product candidates in phase I clinical trials and one product in a phase II clinical trial. Reason for the dramatic drop in the share price: The company’s stock plunged over 65 percent to $3.57 after it released disappointing results from supplemental analyses of a Phase II clinical trial for its cancer therapy EC145. Endocyte has been testing the compound in conjunction with other cancer-fighting agents in women with platinum-resistant ovarian cancer. The analyses showed that EC145 did not help patients live longer.My reason for recommending this obviously speculative stock is not because of its future prospects. In fact, I really could care less about its future prospects. The reason I am recommending this stock is because it’s currently trading at just about its Net Current Asset Value (NCAV). Normally I try to avoid stocks that trade at or below their NCAV. Most of the time they are either Chinese small caps (frauds) or the current assets are mostly made up of inventory. This company on the other had is one of those rare opportunities, it is not a fraud and 99 percent of the current assets are made up of cash and short-term investments. The company’s NCAV is $120.89 million, and that’s after removing prepaid expenses. Below are my calculations: Current Assets – Prepaid Expenses = 140.00 – 0.81 = 139.19 Total Liabilities = 18.30 Current Assets – Total Liabilities = 139.19 - 18.30 = 120.89 Another thing I liked about this particular biotech is that its cash burn rate is very low. According to my calculations the company’s average monthly cash burn rate is about $1.507 million. I calculated this by dividing the company’s annual Free Cash Flow (negative) and dividing it by 12 (months). I was able to acquire 3 years’ worth of financial statements so I calculated the cash burn rate by taking the average of the 3 years. (This company only recently went public, which is the reason I was only able to get 3 years of financial statements.) The company has a total of $138.87 million in cash and short-term investments. By dividing this number by the cash burn rate ($1.507 million), I have come to the conclusion that the company can survive for about 92.15 months or 7.68 years. This is if they don’t take on any additional debt or sell more stock.As you can see by now there is a large margin of safety here. If this stock continues dropping it could be a huge bargain! All of the company’s future prospects are not of any concern to me. If the company does develop some new life-changing drug it will just be icing on the cake.
Based on the assumption the ovarian cancer drug is effective.
A small bio-tech that soon many will be talking about.
Most of you won't even know this company - but in 5-10 years everyone with cancer will be treated with their targeted therapies. They collaborate now with Lilly and Merck and Pfizer.......Phase III recruiting, initial data on ovarian cancer FANTASTIC. I own this one in real life and I bet it will go up between 10-100 times. So I hope. There are obviously risks involved with such small companies.
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