Elan Corp, plc (ADR) (ELN)
The Company's Biopharmaceuticals unit is engaged in research, development and commercial activities and its EDT unit focuses on product development, scale-up and manufacturing to address drug optimization challenges of the pharmaceutical industry.
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Historically poorly run company. One product which causes death all too often/terrible press. No products on horizon, including Bap, worth anything other than being money pits for underachievement. What R&D there was, has been all but killed off due to debt load, which is overwhelming and coming due in the near future. Convoluted ownership of company parts precludes any sale.
Recs
With the additional time being added on to their ongoing clinical trial for AD, the mounting debt becomes increasingly problematic. Additional delays or unanticipated safety issues could end up bringing ELN down.
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get lowing
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12.00 dollar stock by 2009 shoooooooort it
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Technical: long term trend - Down; short term trend - Down;
Options: 09-Apr Puts:4,140 Calls:12,392 P/C = 0.33 - Contrarian Short
Trade time frame: 1-3 days.
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As of close of business on 2/20/08, this was a 1-star Morningstar stock trading at more than double its Morningstar fair value.
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Need some good news.
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With all biotechs there are many steps to final approval. Take a look at Dendreon stock to get a feeling. The stock is currently up and in the long run will pay off but in short-term with any stock requiring FDA multi-step approval moving down is not only possible but probable.
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Good products can’t over come bad management.
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Elan not only has Tysabri for MS, they have a monster Alzheimer's program. If all goes well, they will be first to market with one or two dominating therapies. This is a 100 billion market. They will own the space.
On top of MS and AD, look for developments in Chrones, RH, and Parkinsons. Icing on the cake, a fast-developing nano program with dozens of drugs in development. Elan currently makes just under 5% royalties on these partnerships. Look for that percentage to increase as the benefits of nano delivery become evident over the next several years.
Recs
Despite intruiging P1 data, the unclear role of anti-amyloid agents in the onset and progression of AD will likely slow the potential for early anti-amyloid monotherapies, including ELN's AAB-001.

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