Endurance Specialty Holdings Ltd. (NYSE:ENH)

PrincetonAl (90.73) Submitted: 2/5/2007 11:41:51 PM : Start Price: $29.48 ENH Score: +36.47

I'm betting against the hurricanes. And more importantly, assuming around 5.50 - 5.75 in earnings in 2006 and an essentially flat market (maybe slight increase in profitability of underwriting, slight decrease in premiums underwritten or some such similar opportunity), that it will still be in the 5.75 range in earnings in '07.

That's a whopping F P/E of 7. And a P/B that's real nice too. And that's real F P/E projection, not a housing industry F P/E before the bubble collapsed ;-).

Ok, some discount because of the hurricanes, and they do destroy book value faster than most management teams do, even the poor ones ;-)

But still, this looks like a solid 20%+, and I don't see the S&P doing that.

Federalist73 (< 20) Submitted: 12/6/2006 12:10:19 AM : Start Price: $32.15 ENH Score: +22.90

I got in before Katrina and friends and took a hit but stayed in. Premiums are increasing, much less active hurricane season, strong and "educated" management, deversified coverage away from hurricane alley, and a nice dividend. It's struggled but headed higher, barring a repeat of '05.

njbrewer (67.44) Submitted: 10/7/2006 9:10:00 PM : Start Price: $29.91 ENH Score: +27.29

Strong capital base, seasoned leadership, and excellent underwriting discipline. A best of breed company currently trading at a discount.

christianbusch (71.30) Submitted: 9/26/2006 4:23:03 AM : Start Price: $29.83 ENH Score: +25.76

No hurricanes - good year

cheezyches (75.37) Submitted: 9/16/2006 2:38:28 PM : Start Price: $29.20 ENH Score: +28.05

ENH appears to be a conservatively run reinsurance company. Cash flows and income over the last four years have been pretty strong, despite ENH suffering substantial losses through Katrina. However, Katrina losses were more a result of a freak collision of bad events - category 5 storm on a city below sea level in which city engineering was knowingly un-sufficient. The levees failed, the city got slammed.
Statistics are a way to deal with long term trends. I am a long term investor. I think the management of ENH is properly thinking about long term trends, including the effects of global warming. That said, there are high risks here.

Financials: I am not an expert at valuing companies, but using 3-year ranges of P/Book Value of 1.2-1.4, and growth rates of Book Value at 10-14%, I think ENH is conservatively worth around $40 today (Sept 06). Plus, it has a decent dividend yield of around 3%.