Evergreen Solar, Inc. (ESLR)

I company appears on track to have long term probility starting in about 9 months. Their String Ribbon technology gives it a cost advantage on most of its competitiors. It also has about 750 million in long term contracts.

ESLR will continue moving sideways for awhile. It is, nevertheless, a company with a good technology, strong European allies, and strong long term growth potential. At this price it is a good one to own and hang on to. Our energy problems with fossil fuels are real and this is a company you can feel good about owning...still, it will take awhile.

It will take a while, money will be made and lost on the way, but ESLR will ride the solar wave with others. It will probably take some breakthrough in technology. Probably, maybe, a while... who knows when. We can just hope to pull away from the crude oil teet.

In 5 years, I believe ESLR is going to be one of those stocks that everyone wished they picked up right now. In investor slang, ESLR is going to be a "ten bagger". Below are some items I selected from Standard & Poors stock rating for ESLR:

"We expect total revenues to increase 67% in
2008, followed by a 277% rise in 2009.We see
these forecasted gains driven by sales from
ESLR's second (expected to start up in the summer
of 2008) and third U.S. plants (start-up expected
in early 2009). ESLR's revenues fell
sharply in 2007, as its interest in the EverQ partnership
was reduced to a one-third stake at the
end of 2006.

We expect losses in 2008 similar to those of
2007, and see results turning solidly profitable
in 2009, on the sharp rise in revenues we see
after ESLR's new plants are up and running.We
see these factors partly offset by costs related
to ESLR's aggressive capacity expansion plans.

In July 2008, ESLR signed a $1.2 billion sales
contract with Germany-based IBC Solar AG, extending
through 2013, and bringing Evergreen's
backlog to about $3 billion with five customers.
The other contracts include deals (extending
through 2012) with U.S-based groSolar and Germany-
basedWagner & Co Solartechnik, signed
in June 2008 and valued at a total of $600 million,
and two agreements signed in May, for the
delivery of a total of $1 billion of solar panels
through 2013.

In July 2008, ESLR signed a $1.2 billion sales
contract with Germany-based IBC Solar AG, extending
through 2013, and bringing Evergreen's
backlog to about $3 billion with five customers.
The other contracts include deals (extending
through 2012) with U.S-based groSolar and Germany-
basedWagner & Co Solartechnik, signed
in June 2008 and valued at a total of $600 million,
and two agreements signed in May, for the
delivery of a total of $1 billion of solar panels
through 2013.

Risks to our recommendation and target price
include slower than expected adoption of PV
cells as an energy source, and a later than expected
time for ESLR to turn profitable.

The shares recently traded at 14X our 2009 EPS
forecast, a large discount to many of ESLR's
peers.We view ESLR as a high risk investment,
given the execution risk related to its aggressive
growth plans and its current planned startup
of capacity. However, we expect Evergreen
to turn solidly profitable in 2009 and generate
strong gains for several years after. Based on
these views, we set our 12-month target price
of $16, about 25X our 2009 EPS estimate."

Big prices in oil make solar cheaper.

This stock has been pumped up and beaten down. Sure, they have cash problems, but they also have a nice proprietary technology, a new plant in germany, a decent stream of contracts, and increasing sales (while hemorrhaging $), and they have a reasonably secure silicon supply structure.

Now, the price of oil was artificially and temporarily pusghed down by - duh - short term weather patterns of warm winter. Well, umm, it's gonna' get awful hot this summer, and plenty cold this winter, so I see oil back in the 60's in 2007, and alt energy stocks will track oil (even though logically short tetm oil fluctuations have nothing to do with the long term viabity of AE). I mean, as oli continues to rise, won't more people in highly insolated areas be psyched to have electricity that gets cheaper each year as the system is paid off? I prefer STP, but hold both.

ESLR is a solar company that has its own source of polysilicon. This has been a huge problem with other solar companies and the demand will out strip the supply until more manufacturing kicks in. MDU just opened their second plant in Germany this month, (April 2007) and Germany is the largest consumer of solar energy in Europe.

High risk solar power play - they use less silicon than other solar manufacturers and have long term supply contracts to bridge them across the raw silicon supply problems. California's new interest in renewable energy is a boost.

Based in US, Evergreen Solar (ESLR) is a solar cell, panel and module developer and manufacturer, engaged in the generation of electricity through photovoltaic processes. The company currently accounts for less than 1% of the global photovoltaic market, but is in the process of ramping production significantly to cater to the increasing demand. In the same lines, the firm has entered into a strategic partnership with Q-Cells and Renewable Energy Corporation and holds a 33% interest in EverQ, a comprehensive solar power product provider based in Germany.

As the total market for photovoltaic products is expected to reach $18.6 billion by 2010 from about $10 billion in 2006, Evergreen stands a chance to benefit from this soaring worldwide demand for solar energy. The firm has signed a series of contracts with six clients worth more than $700 million. Given that Evergreen's sales have never reached $100 million, these agreements envisage a turnaround for the company. Moreover, its partnership with Q-Cells should help it to tap the German market, known to be the world's fastest-growing solar-energy market.

Counting on its String Ribbon silicon-processing technology, which uses about 30% less silicon than average, has given the company a cost advantage over competitors. Endorsing the market trends, its sales increased 225.8% year over year to $36.4 million from $11.2 million in third-quarter of 2006. Going forward, its revenue growth relies on the expansion of EverQ in Europe and its capacity expansion program, which augurs well for Evergreen.

As market demand has moved upward, investors appear to be paying more attention to alternative energy themes, endowing Evergreen’s shares with a large upward potential. Future announcements of additional growth opportunities should help stimulate additional interest in the coming months.

This one is just undervalued while ignorant people maintain their overconfidence in oil supply... They will get their rude awakening one day, hopefully by then I will be off-grid and self-sustaining ;-)

american value their individulism. solar vs. oil sounds very hippy and patriotic.
solar is suitable for american consumers. this is particularly true in a down ward housing market that hits the hight end homes most. a solar roof provides good differentiation.
also solar is easier to implement compare to wind.

company specific: it is trading at good discount. better perfoamce than peers. the new cfo knows the industry and money.

ESLR's strength is its ability to eek out more and more production out of every kg of silicon feedstock. Though there are many companies working on next gen solar cells (e.g., DSTI), whether those will work in the marketplace is TBD. If they do work, ESLR will then have a problem...but that problem will be at least five years away, since there are years of pent-up demand in the global system, and ESLR, via its partnerships, has positioned itself well. If the alternatives don't save the world as advertised, ESLR stands to continue to be a growing company beyond five years.

The long-term pressure on oli prices will eventually make solar and other alterrnatives price comptetitive on their own merits. With thier low-cost production methods Evergreen Solar stands to benefit in the long run.

*Growing number of sales contracts
*Steady, secured supply of silicone (say that fast 10 times)
*Growing global market for solar (and alt energy in general)
*High oil prices
*Competitive advantage in solar arena with its lower required amount of silicone per watt
*Expanded facilities coming online
*Seems to have handled the raw vs. granular silicone processing hurdle successfully

As fossil fuel supplies continue to dwindle, solar power will become an economic (and political) no-brainer for many households and businesses, and systems will be increasingly integrated in new construction. ESLR is very well positioned with secure silicon supplies, patented fabrication processes, and rapidly expanding manufacturing capacity in the US and Germany.

Continued unrest in the middle east will keep alt energy stocks popular.

These guys appear to have developed a viable production process for PV.

Even if they never become the dominant manufacturer in the industry they will probably make money liscensing their technology. Or perhaps get bought by someone else?

Bottom line, this is a real business in an emerging sector.

Solar power is the best alternative to energy in this World.

Evergreen is currently experiencing growing pains due to credit availability. They have a several quarters of production already sold. The Obama administration's agenda promises to lift companies such as ESLR.

Most importantly, this stock has been so battered in recent trading, that technical indicators make this a buy at $2.17 (as of this posting.)

Leader in solar tech with strong polysilicon supply and foriegn pentration. Will benefit from gradual move to solar over next decade, likely to far outperform markets over long term. Patience and willingness to weather storms of volatility. Investors may want to hold STP & SWPR to hedge results of any one company.