+ Watch EXAS
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An applied genomics company that develops proprietary DNA-based technologies for use in the detection of cancer.
Exact seems destined to bounce around like a cork in the ocean for the next few months as bears like Whitney Tilson hammer down on their short thesis that the recent USPTF recommendations prove the stock is worthless, while bulls focus on increasing Cologuard revenues and the fact that CMS hasn't changed their support of Cologuard yet. Complicating matters somewhat is Exact's recent press release indicating that the Cologuard reimbursement national limitation amount (NLA) on the recently published CMS CLFS isn't consistent with CMS' own guidance applying crosswalk methodology to the assigned CPT codes. Complicating matters further is that I had very little success determining what exactly this means. Exact believes Cologuard is entitled to reimbursement equal to the sum of the NLA's for the three applicable CPT codes, which would come to $501.26. Apparently the NLA on the final CLFS is lower, although Exact declines to specify the number. I made some game attempts to navigate the CMS website to determine what number is listed for the Cologuard NLA but was unable to find it, and I don't have six hours to break down the whole business of CPT codes, crosswalk methodology, and NLA's. That means I probably won't be trading Exact, since I don't have vital information that I'm sure others do have access to, but it's still fun to bet on CAPS that some life will come back into this stock before the next shoe, or boot, comes crashing down.
The current FDA commentary on the efficacy of Colonguard will be punishing, and EXAS is a one-trick pony. Prognosis dire...
competing products to Cologuard
A strong buy on this pullback. Colonguard was just approved by the FDA in August. Although they are off to a slow start, I believe sales will start picking up. Just expanded there partnership with AETNA. See other major partnerships coming in in the future.
Most people, it is safe to say, do not enjoy getting a colonoscopy. Therefore, any company that offers a non-invasive colorectal cancer screening test has a good chance of squeezing out a nice, large profit.
Medicare reimbursement rate of 504 / test!!!
Proven by the Mayo clinic. Strong reimbursement rates from Medicare are approved at $502 per test, and market will be between 2 million to 8 million tests per year.
Huge advance in colonrectal cancer detection that will obviate the need for a colonostophy. This test will be BIG! It saves money ($2,500 vs $500), saves the patient the VERY unpleasant experience of a colonsoptophy an it is highly accurate.
According to reports this non-invasive proceedure can detect 90% of stage 1 and stage 2 colorectal cancers at an early treatable stage. FDA has just approved it. With a low 10% false positives and its low cost when compared with colonoscopy. It looks like a winner as we look for cheaper ways to provide quality care.
FDA approval seems inevitable. Even if their current sales channel fails to fully mature or their reimbursement rate falls too low the current price is low enough to make them an acquisition candidate.
On the rec of Kirk Spano. Upon FDA approval and subsequent execution of business plan, they will have a way to prevent most of the 50,000 yearly deaths due to colorectal cancers not found early enough. This is the 2nd most deadly cancer and yet also the most preventable with screening as it can take ten full years to develop. Market is large and the company may also develop other stool based tests for detecting other forms of cancer, opening more markets and more importantly saving more lives. Strong and experienced management and strong balance sheet.
Hoping their participation at the Baird conference yields some business partnerships.
Look at their product. Who will really use this?
Very important screening test
The graying of America makes one high on pharmaceuticals.
Boomers getting old."Can I stick this in your butt?""No, but here's some poo."
Blood based tests don't find PRE-CANCERS with any amount of accuracy. The ColoGuard(EXAS) test is done in your own home in 1 minute, no doctor, no office visit, no needle stuck in your arm. The accuracy of the stool based DNA test is far better than any blood based test.10,000 person Phase 3 FDA/Mayo clinic validation study will be complete in this quarter for top line results reported in Q4 THIS year.
My belief is that a stool DNA test will not be successful. There are several blood-based diagnostic tests for CRC that look promising, and much more patient friendly.
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