Exelixis, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXEL)

It's a toss-up at this point whether EXEL will get approval for their drug. But at this price, I'll take a chance. They can fund the Stage III trials, which will tell the tale.

They have enough money to complete Phase 3 studies for cabozantinib and get FDA approval (cabo is basically all the company's about by now, as they've focused totally on it). The trials so far are extremely positive; getting approval (and moving on to other forms of cancer) will take years, and MIGHT fail (so this is a high-risk position), but the probability of success is good and the prospective returns of such success absolutely breathtaking (definitely a multibagger from today's depressed stock price). It's also pretty uncorrelated from "the market in general", a pleasing rarity in these days of very high correlation among asset classes.

Buyout in 2012? Not impossible and near a technical floor with advancing 21 day RSI.

There are currently 47000 EXEL shares in my "fund" with break-even of around 2.81 USD.
http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/fund-trades/671856.

Constant positive medical news. Stock price will follow. $12 in 2012

Not to worried about the recent drop (other than that my stake suffered), positive test results leading into the next phase of testing

Roll the dice to a cancer cure. Follow directions next time!!!

A hiccup in phase 3 trials created a huge selloff. Once this drug passes, this stock should double at least.

9.75

Cancer drug met Ph3 primary endpoint.

Thyroid cancer results are very good. If cabozantinib proves to be safe or has limited side effects then the prospects for this stock are very good. If the drug works on prostate cancers or other cancers then the prospects for sustained long-term growth are even better!

I know I am not supposed to invest with emotion, but my father recently passed from cancer. I can only hope they find a cure, or better treatment.

There is no better biotech to be in!

I cannot resist the potential, so I am parking my money in a good basket of small cap biotech picks. This is the sector to be in for the next 5 years in a big, big way. Only picking the stocks in this sector with the brightest potential.

There's not much time before topline data is announced from the EXAM phase III trial of cabozantinib in medullary thyroid cancer. That's a rare form of cancer, but I wouldn't underestimate the power of the first successful phase III trial in Exelixis' long history. It also would establish proof of concept for a drug that has also demonstrated significant positive phase II results in ovarian and prostate cancer, which are vastly larger markets.

Standing in the way of success are the high resistance of the cancer to chemotherapy and recent reports of fatal side effects of cabozantinib, which were the primary driving force in dragging the share price down from 12 to the current level. Given the impressive success of cabozantinib in recent phase II trials, I would give the phase III trial about a 60% chance of showing a significant benefit. The delay in completing the trial due to longer-than-expected times to progression is not predictive of success or failure - I've seen this go both ways too many times to count. The mortality and side effects, I believe, are similar in scope and frequency to those noted with other angiogenesis inhibitors.

I'm squeamish about phase III trials and FDA decisions so I may dump out if I get 10-20 points prior to the data release. Otherwise, I'll be taking the plunge (in CAPS only, of course).

results due end of Sept

I still cannot believe this dropped so significantly due to two deaths in the trials. XL-184 will be approved and this stock will skyrocket, if it isn't bought out before then.

Good pipeline and good startpoint

The drop in the dow today is giving great bargain prices