Exelixis, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXEL)

CAPS Rating: 5 out of 5

A development-stage biotechnology company dedicated to the discovery and development of novel small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of cancer and other serious diseases.

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Member Avatar RayJay111 (< 20) Submitted: 7/22/2014 1:40:52 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.62 EXEL Score: +4.10

This is a stock for an investor with a long range purview. With a variety of drugs and treatments nearing the clinical trials stage it should be a clear cut winner in 3-5 years.

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Member Avatar marsuculix (< 20) Submitted: 7/15/2014 4:20:46 AM : Outperform Start Price: $4.08 EXEL Score: -7.82

I missed the boat - but run-up will continue as long as takeover rumors are spreading...

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Member Avatar topinch (< 20) Submitted: 7/3/2014 8:03:18 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.61 EXEL Score: +4.29

There are several things affecting the performance here, earlier when there was a possibility of this company finishing third trials early stock shot up to 8 with analysts expecting higher, they annouce trials will continue, stock returns down to 3 to 4 range, trials are scheduled to end in nov, dec, no reason not to expect this one to return to being north of 7.

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Member Avatar Estrogen (76.86) Submitted: 5/24/2014 2:54:48 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.75 EXEL Score: -105.65

stock have taken a drumming, but still has good pipeline and partnerships. At this level, buy, buy buy, and take your profits on a double.

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Member Avatar superstar (98.45) Submitted: 5/19/2014 3:49:52 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.39 EXEL Score: +6.33

Possibly the single best risk/reward investment in the entire biotech sector. The company has a strong pipeline and well over 400 million in cash, not to mention some solid partnerships. Several upcoming catalysts in 2014, including COMET-1 data, among others. Placing an average biotechnology valuation of 5x potential earnings would place a share value at $16.70. The sell off in this one appears inexplicable, but that is what provides opportunity for Foolish investors.

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Member Avatar TerryFool (< 20) Submitted: 4/27/2014 1:59:46 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.37 EXEL Score: +5.97

SPEC BUY@ 3.25 TP 14

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Member Avatar jtallenmd (99.58) Submitted: 4/23/2014 1:01:45 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.45 EXEL Score: +3.59

Doubling down after ending a losing pick.

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Member Avatar TruffelPig (< 20) Submitted: 4/17/2014 7:57:25 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.33 EXEL Score: +6.97

Sell off was nonsense, new base established. Ride this pony up into data :).

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Member Avatar peregrine (97.87) Submitted: 4/8/2014 8:58:33 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.61 EXEL Score: -3.02

An independent data monitoring committee recommended COMET-1 phase 3 trial involving Cometriq in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) to proceed to its final analysis. Most biotechs would shoot up on this news because it verifies the safety and potential efficacy of the therapy, yet EXEL shares crashed on the news. The fall in the share price was classic overreaction with severe manipulation to shake out retail investors, on the excuse that the street was hoping for the trial to be stopped early for efficacy. This is an extremely high expectation for any biotech, and should have barely moved the shares to the downside at all. On top of this EXEL has an extremely strong pipeline, nice partnerships, strong cash position, with some very nice upcoming catalysts this year. One doesn't see buying opportunities like this often, and I would not be surprised to see shares trading north of $8 as shares reach a fair valuation prior to the next data release on COMET-1. EXEL at its current valuation is only being valued at one time peak sales, when most other biotech are valued at three to five times annual peak sales estimates. In other words, it would not be a stretch at all for shares to move to above $11.25 before COMET-1 data update is even released.

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Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.70) Submitted: 4/1/2014 9:13:31 AM : Outperform Start Price: $4.15 EXEL Score: -15.22

The nature of the market is to deliver a swift kick to the teeth just when you think you've got it nailed. After standing on the sidelines half a dozen times as biopharmas rebounded from disproportionate haircuts, I finally made my move with Exelixis after a study continuation PR mystifyingly resulted in a 36% haircut to the stock last Wednesday morning. Everything I've seen in the last couple of years seemed to suggest that Exelixis would rebound sharply during the trading session after a bizarre pre-market overreaction to a minor setback. I went in big, watched things go in the wrong direction, doubled down when momentum finally shifted my way, and then watched it turn on me again. By Friday I was down about 15K on 30000 shares with a cost basis of 4.11. At least I have the comfort of knowing I'm in good company, if my Twitter stream is to be believed.

I still can't say I understand what happened. Exelixis announced an interim analysis of the COMET-1 trial had been completed with a recommendation by the IDMC that the study progress to completion rather than being halted for efficacy. Now, Exelixis had certainly enjoyed a nice run in 2014 to that point and it would certainly be understandable if traders trying to play an early termination of the study decided to exit the stock. I think a 10% decline wouldn't have surprised me. After all, topline OS data from COMET-1 is still expected this year along with several other major catalysts (COMET-2 pain pallitation data, phase III data for cobimetinib in melanoma, OS readout from EXAM). Instead, by the end of the week, the stock was down 45% from where it started the week and 60% from recent highs over 8.

Rather than run through the streets half-naked and scream that the market is insane, I've tried to amass logical reasons why Exelixis stock would react to a study continuation PR almost as if it was an early termination for futility PR.

1. The stock was overvalued after the run this year - no argument here. Momo traders and generalists have been all over Exelixis since the biopharma bull market started to look like a bubble market. I would probably have entered a red thumb if the share price hadn't dropped after the PR. But a lot of the bubbly pricing had already fizzled in the month before the PR.
2. Pressure on the biopharma sector due to concerns about mid-caps like Gilead and Alexion amplified the negative effect of the PR.
3. COMET-1 is likely to fail - concerns about study design were raised when the COMET trials began in mid 2012. COMET-1 employs a lower dose of cabozantinib than was used in the unexpectedly successful phase II trial. New treatment options like Xtandi and Zytiga will prolong the lives of the control patients and make it more difficult to show a survival advantage of cabozantinib. The phase III trials of Xtandi and Zytiga were terminated early for efficacy, a bar that cabozantinib has now failed to meet.
4. Some large hedge funds or institutions got a whiff of something worse than a continuation and ran from the stock in volume. This is certainly possible, since the interim analysis had no futility component. The trial would have been continued even with no evidence of cabozantinib efficacy. Do institutions still pay for "consultations" with doctors involved in clinical trials in the wake of the Martoma conviction? I sure as hell think so. We'll know more about this theory when the next 13F filings come out.

I might have been foolhardy to continue to dig myself a deeper hole as Exelixis failed to find support. Nevertheless, I see myself holding onto this position and probably exiting with a profit once traders venture back into the newly-cheap holding. Someone big may have gotten spooked, but with all those catalysts coming this year Exelixis is just too juicy to ignore.

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Member Avatar g60 (20.53) Submitted: 4/1/2014 1:36:29 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.67 EXEL Score: -2.88

Plenty of catalysts this year. After the over reaction on the interim results, happy to get in at multi-year lows.

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Member Avatar EvanBuck (99.79) Submitted: 3/31/2014 2:52:26 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.43 EXEL Score: +3.78

Got some RL money in this pick. My pitch: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/this-weeks-biotech-blowup/952472

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Member Avatar Crystalball (95.91) Submitted: 3/31/2014 9:45:32 AM : Outperform Start Price: $4.01 EXEL Score: -12.49

Big upside to this biotech. The recent decline was only due to the common announcement that the company's clinical trial of cancer therapy cabozantinib's use in treating prostate cancer will continue beyond its interim point. Big upside on this one -- even before the completion of the trial.

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Member Avatar naughtyguy (30.59) Submitted: 3/31/2014 9:01:47 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.43 EXEL Score: +3.78

Oversold!

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Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 3/27/2014 4:23:06 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.90 EXEL Score: -10.09

If you've been following the story on Exelixis, Inc the last two days, then you already know it...if you don't, you need someone better than me to explain it, perhaps ZZ will add a pitch to his upthumb soon.

Short answer is that this is the biopharm world where fortunes are made and lost at a rapid rate. You shouldn't invest here, no matter what your conviction bias may be about a drug and it's benefits...the road to proving you are both effective and safe is long and rocky, and the few that win sometimes fall out excecuting manufacturing and sells (DNDN)

This breakdown was a little unusual as it was fueled by an FDA rejection. Brian Orelli, MF blogger summarizes nicely..

http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2014/03/26/talk-about-high-clinical-trial-expectations.aspx?source=itxsitmot0000001&lidx=4

But I believe there was more involved than just disappointment that unlike it's peers, Exelixis would have to complete a trial rather than ending it early. In part, safety has been a concern, and the population Exelixis used for Comet1 was difficult to quantify.

That the trial will go on speaks a positive to the safety. Nothing major to stop the trial, although many issues have been looked at due to the trial population. Time is not something some investors care to deal with and Exelixis already has a lofty market cap, (was over a billion, now down to a mere $750M) to defend with little else to back them up if things go south.

In addition, I believe the selloff was further enhanced by the somewhat erratic Biopharm market in general which is somewhere between a hiccup and a case of the stomach flu. If times had been good for BIOS, this would have been less of a hit, and if biopharms bounce back this will as well.

So why buy at $4 a share...I do think though Exelixis Inc has a lofty valuation, that bio-investors will decide to take on the risk at this price point. Once the shorts are covered and reloaded, and the dust settles, this should rise at least 10%....it may oscillate, but going back into end of trial it should see a boost. I'm not playing it for appoval, just for decent data and speculators to return. The coffers have enough money for now and for a biopharm this has a good support of instituional investors...(or unfortunately seem to be decreasing biopharm positions of late).......

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Member Avatar usubanas (99.41) Submitted: 3/27/2014 4:01:25 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.90 EXEL Score: -10.39

Unrealistic expectation that the trial would be stopped at interim for efficacy. Fantastic buying opportunity.

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Member Avatar helicopterfool (27.85) Submitted: 3/27/2014 11:36:21 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.89 EXEL Score: -10.65

Anchak & Porte

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Member Avatar bcurtis9944 (23.50) Submitted: 3/26/2014 7:31:17 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.07 EXEL Score: -14.63

bounce back

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Member Avatar DrGoldin (99.71) Submitted: 3/26/2014 12:20:15 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.11 EXEL Score: -14.63

Not going to be profitable for several years, but I'll buy it at a 1/3 discount.

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Member Avatar AndrewGreenBull (99.23) Submitted: 3/26/2014 9:43:24 AM : Outperform Start Price: $6.37 EXEL Score: -47.08

The market is in a panic, best timing at $4's

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