Exelixis, Inc. (NASDAQ:EXEL)

CAPS Rating: 4 out of 5

A development-stage biotechnology company dedicated to the discovery and development of novel small molecule therapeutics for the treatment of cancer and other serious diseases.

Results 1 - 20 of 374 : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Next »

Recs

0
Member Avatar pchop12316 (68.66) Submitted: 12/13/2014 12:03:36 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.44 EXEL Score: -8.27

about time to exel

Recs

0
Member Avatar Scrappyq99 (< 20) Submitted: 10/9/2014 2:03:43 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.53 EXEL Score: -19.03

It has nowhere to go but up. It has been beaten up after the latest trial news with some of it being positive. Still has a few things in the pipeline.

Recs

0
Member Avatar rnisco (< 20) Submitted: 9/30/2014 9:14:55 PM : Underperform Start Price: $1.58 EXEL Score: +19.27

exel is now tainted and will remain so for the foreseeable future. Put your money into something that will grow. Do not just hang on-take your losses and turn them into a gain with a much better rated company.

Recs

0
Member Avatar usubanas (99.71) Submitted: 9/3/2014 12:18:53 PM : Outperform Start Price: $1.89 EXEL Score: -31.21

I thought plunge to $4 was a great buying opportunity. Now plunge to $2 again great? I expect RCC data in 2015 to finally move this thing up.

Recs

0
Member Avatar asilverp (59.96) Submitted: 9/2/2014 7:43:18 PM : Underperform Start Price: $1.85 EXEL Score: +29.27

Falling on unusual volume, not a good sign.

Recs

0
Member Avatar Strixx (64.78) Submitted: 8/15/2014 2:41:21 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.22 EXEL Score: -73.09

I do not own this stock, but am strongly considering it.

Recs

1
Member Avatar RayJay111 (< 20) Submitted: 7/22/2014 1:40:52 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.62 EXEL Score: -66.55

This is a stock for an investor with a long range purview. With a variety of drugs and treatments nearing the clinical trials stage it should be a clear cut winner in 3-5 years.

Recs

0
Member Avatar marsuculix (31.86) Submitted: 7/15/2014 4:20:46 AM : Outperform Start Price: $4.08 EXEL Score: -70.89

I missed the boat - but run-up will continue as long as takeover rumors are spreading...

Recs

2
Member Avatar topinch (< 20) Submitted: 7/3/2014 8:03:18 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.61 EXEL Score: -66.55

There are several things affecting the performance here, earlier when there was a possibility of this company finishing third trials early stock shot up to 8 with analysts expecting higher, they annouce trials will continue, stock returns down to 3 to 4 range, trials are scheduled to end in nov, dec, no reason not to expect this one to return to being north of 7.

Recs

1
Member Avatar Estrogen (46.09) Submitted: 5/24/2014 2:54:48 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.75 EXEL Score: -163.17

stock have taken a drumming, but still has good pipeline and partnerships. At this level, buy, buy buy, and take your profits on a double.

Recs

0
Member Avatar TerryFool (49.64) Submitted: 4/27/2014 1:59:46 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.37 EXEL Score: -69.87

SPEC BUY@ 3.25 TP 14

Recs

0
Member Avatar jtallenmd (99.54) Submitted: 4/23/2014 1:01:45 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.45 EXEL Score: -70.46

Doubling down after ending a losing pick.

Recs

1
Member Avatar peregrine (98.85) Submitted: 4/8/2014 8:58:33 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.61 EXEL Score: -74.11

An independent data monitoring committee recommended COMET-1 phase 3 trial involving Cometriq in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) to proceed to its final analysis. Most biotechs would shoot up on this news because it verifies the safety and potential efficacy of the therapy, yet EXEL shares crashed on the news. The fall in the share price was classic overreaction with severe manipulation to shake out retail investors, on the excuse that the street was hoping for the trial to be stopped early for efficacy. This is an extremely high expectation for any biotech, and should have barely moved the shares to the downside at all. On top of this EXEL has an extremely strong pipeline, nice partnerships, strong cash position, with some very nice upcoming catalysts this year. One doesn't see buying opportunities like this often, and I would not be surprised to see shares trading north of $8 as shares reach a fair valuation prior to the next data release on COMET-1. EXEL at its current valuation is only being valued at one time peak sales, when most other biotech are valued at three to five times annual peak sales estimates. In other words, it would not be a stretch at all for shares to move to above $11.25 before COMET-1 data update is even released.

Recs

7
Member Avatar zzlangerhans (99.85) Submitted: 4/1/2014 9:13:31 AM : Outperform Start Price: $4.15 EXEL Score: -77.49

The nature of the market is to deliver a swift kick to the teeth just when you think you've got it nailed. After standing on the sidelines half a dozen times as biopharmas rebounded from disproportionate haircuts, I finally made my move with Exelixis after a study continuation PR mystifyingly resulted in a 36% haircut to the stock last Wednesday morning. Everything I've seen in the last couple of years seemed to suggest that Exelixis would rebound sharply during the trading session after a bizarre pre-market overreaction to a minor setback. I went in big, watched things go in the wrong direction, doubled down when momentum finally shifted my way, and then watched it turn on me again. By Friday I was down about 15K on 30000 shares with a cost basis of 4.11. At least I have the comfort of knowing I'm in good company, if my Twitter stream is to be believed.

I still can't say I understand what happened. Exelixis announced an interim analysis of the COMET-1 trial had been completed with a recommendation by the IDMC that the study progress to completion rather than being halted for efficacy. Now, Exelixis had certainly enjoyed a nice run in 2014 to that point and it would certainly be understandable if traders trying to play an early termination of the study decided to exit the stock. I think a 10% decline wouldn't have surprised me. After all, topline OS data from COMET-1 is still expected this year along with several other major catalysts (COMET-2 pain pallitation data, phase III data for cobimetinib in melanoma, OS readout from EXAM). Instead, by the end of the week, the stock was down 45% from where it started the week and 60% from recent highs over 8.

Rather than run through the streets half-naked and scream that the market is insane, I've tried to amass logical reasons why Exelixis stock would react to a study continuation PR almost as if it was an early termination for futility PR.

1. The stock was overvalued after the run this year - no argument here. Momo traders and generalists have been all over Exelixis since the biopharma bull market started to look like a bubble market. I would probably have entered a red thumb if the share price hadn't dropped after the PR. But a lot of the bubbly pricing had already fizzled in the month before the PR.
2. Pressure on the biopharma sector due to concerns about mid-caps like Gilead and Alexion amplified the negative effect of the PR.
3. COMET-1 is likely to fail - concerns about study design were raised when the COMET trials began in mid 2012. COMET-1 employs a lower dose of cabozantinib than was used in the unexpectedly successful phase II trial. New treatment options like Xtandi and Zytiga will prolong the lives of the control patients and make it more difficult to show a survival advantage of cabozantinib. The phase III trials of Xtandi and Zytiga were terminated early for efficacy, a bar that cabozantinib has now failed to meet.
4. Some large hedge funds or institutions got a whiff of something worse than a continuation and ran from the stock in volume. This is certainly possible, since the interim analysis had no futility component. The trial would have been continued even with no evidence of cabozantinib efficacy. Do institutions still pay for "consultations" with doctors involved in clinical trials in the wake of the Martoma conviction? I sure as hell think so. We'll know more about this theory when the next 13F filings come out.

I might have been foolhardy to continue to dig myself a deeper hole as Exelixis failed to find support. Nevertheless, I see myself holding onto this position and probably exiting with a profit once traders venture back into the newly-cheap holding. Someone big may have gotten spooked, but with all those catalysts coming this year Exelixis is just too juicy to ignore.

Recs

0
Member Avatar g60 (44.78) Submitted: 4/1/2014 1:36:29 AM : Outperform Start Price: $3.67 EXEL Score: -72.80

Plenty of catalysts this year. After the over reaction on the interim results, happy to get in at multi-year lows.

Recs

0
Member Avatar EvanBuck (99.85) Submitted: 3/31/2014 2:52:26 PM : Outperform Start Price: $3.43 EXEL Score: -70.81

Got some RL money in this pick. My pitch: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/this-weeks-biotech-blowup/952472

Recs

0
Member Avatar Crystalball (93.41) Submitted: 3/31/2014 9:45:32 AM : Outperform Start Price: $4.01 EXEL Score: -76.90

Big upside to this biotech. The recent decline was only due to the common announcement that the company's clinical trial of cancer therapy cabozantinib's use in treating prostate cancer will continue beyond its interim point. Big upside on this one -- even before the completion of the trial.

Recs

0
Member Avatar bcurtis9944 (23.74) Submitted: 3/26/2014 7:31:17 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.07 EXEL Score: -78.09

bounce back

Recs

0
Member Avatar AndrewGreenBull (98.87) Submitted: 3/26/2014 9:43:24 AM : Outperform Start Price: $6.37 EXEL Score: -88.90

The market is in a panic, best timing at $4's

Recs

0
Member Avatar rjstarrman (< 20) Submitted: 11/2/2013 3:40:36 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.99 EXEL Score: -89.27

lots of potential in the pipe line

Featured Broker Partners


Advertisement