Excel Maritime Carriers Ltd (EXM)

EXm and most bulk shippers are full of cash. It costs abt Uss 8000.00 a day to run a ship,and the market is paying 85000.00 Uss per day for a Panamax on a one yeaar charter,if its less than 8 yars in age.I recently saw a fixture for a ship being constructed and to be delivered in late 2009 at a figure similar to above. The index is now at 9200 after being at 11500 or so.A cape size vessel of abt 170000,00 dwt fetches Uss 150000,00 a day after having reached figures of uss 200.000,00 five months ago.The other sideof the equation is what a ship costs to build or buy,and the financing involved.Ships have gone up in price five times on the used market bcse owners will only let an older one go (at a handsome profit) if they can get hold of a newer ship to replace it.Unless the bottom falls out ofcommodities,I see no risk to buy exm between 33.00 and 45.00,and if u want to be safe buy tomorrow at 36.00 and sell the sept 40.00 call at ard Uss 4.00 dropping yr cost to 32.00.If its worth more than 40.00 and u loose it u made abt 27% in 73 days.This stock has too many Panamax on long charter till 2010 with Bunge at Uss 24000,00 a day (originally fxd with Quintana),so lets hope the market holds steady so they can get some capital appreciation on the vessels.

Great P/E. It may take a while for everyone to notice this one, but according to my favorite master investor (PL), that is a good thing. Get in now, while it's small. Global economy will help while management is righting the ship (pun intended, sorry).

Unbelievably undervalued! This sell-off is an opportunity to make some serious cash.

Killer yield for a company trading at a recession level. Graham formula (using the conservative numbers from 2007) gives me a fair value of $30, for a margin of safety of almost 75%.

Companies like Peabody Energy and Arch Coal are shipping overseas their low BTU coal. The market demand is only going higher. Excel Maritime is excelently set up to profit from this and other commodities.

Drybulk Shipper that recently missed estimates. The entire drybulk shipping sector is inflated, and I believe it will come down to earth soon.

I liked this stock and took my profit sometime ago. The technicals do not look so hot of late. It is trading well below its 50 and 200 Day Moving Average per a MSN one month chart.

Dry Bulk carrier EXM is down from a highs of $81 (Oct. 07) and 60 (May 08). Yet the company has made substantial progress, particularly with the merger with Quintana. Estimates for 2009 are in the range of $6.00 - 7.50 and the dividend was just doubled to an anual rate of $1.60, with "promises" of more to come over time.
It's business is shipping of commodities like iron ore, coal, grain, fertilizer, etc. While business conditions might well soften overall, the outlook for coal, fertilizer, grain is not likely to decrease.
Many are worried about possible oversupply of ships as some carriers are expanding their fleet with new purchases, over and above the combined rate of growth of the business and retirement of older ships. However, EXM is at least partially shielded from the POSSIBLE over supply by long-term contracts.
While the stock will likely be volitile, the current price is right. Target price = $75 over about 2 years - but could be much sooner.

Ridiculously oversold.

International play. Do you realized there are only a limited number of dry bulk carriers. If you wanted to build a new one, you'd have to wait til 2011-12! And almost all their profits are given back to the stockholders because they can't really be reinvested. Great play! Also love DSX!!!

oversold. fair value is 53 dollars. This dry bulk shipper is on sail. Get it?

China needs commodities to continue its economy ramp up, this company is a sure winner as it transports what China needs. I expect the share price of this company to go up along with its profits. Also this company is a Zach's recommendation.

The merge with Quintana will diversify Excel's exposure. Management said it is also looking for more consolidation. This means more predictable earnings, better diversification, larger fleet, larger client base, etc. Low P/E, sector unjustly out of favor, decent dividend. The market will catch on soon.

Growth for this sector may top out in 2009. This company just doubled their dividend and if it earns $6.50 this year and $7.00 next year, this is a great value. This company is still in a sweet spot shipping some of the only assets countries want iron ore, coal and grains, to get rid of their dollars that keep falling in value.

Severely undervalued right now...just look at the P/E

No-brainer buy at this price. Solid company, long contracts.
There is no armageddon. Yes, baltic index is tanking - so what, these companies are locked in long contracts and will manage just fine through a slowdown. China will go through stockpiles in a month - month and a half. The spike in libor affected ship financing a bit, but looks like the extreme was short-lived.
I prefer NM to EXM, largely because of nicer geographical diversification, newer ships and brilliant management.
Anyhow, both companies are amazing buys.
Major stock rebound-normalization by year's end.

under-recognized consistent small cap performer

Extremely undervalued company. It may take some time for the market to see the value of this company though.

Dry bulk shipper. Efficient CEO, that takes advantantage of the current high spot rates . At least a hold for 1 year or so.