Fastenal Company (NASDAQ:FAST)

good history safe stock

overpriced. liable for a 50% loss in the next recession

This is a great company, but so is the current valuation. The growth just doesn't justify a $13.9 billion market cap. The stock is currently overvalued by about 40 to 50 percent. Remember what a smart investor once said - "a great business is not a great investment if you pay too much for it."

DCF on this stock is less than current. I think they have some pain to work through, but it's a needed product.

no debt

Steady grower. (TSA)

298. Fastenal Co. (NASDAQ: FAST) is repping out new all-time highs like it's nobody's business. Sell. Do not think twice. The valuation here is so high that a small mis-step will result in lower prices. The chart is parabolic. Target: $30-$40. I'm betting CAPS points on this one coming back down to earth. Since when can you apply a P/E of 40+ to a company set to grow at less than 20%? Well, if your answer was: "In your dreams." You'd be right. Mark my words, Fastenal will fall below $40 in the next 5 years.

http://beta.fool.com/bradford86/2012/01/16/price-market-part-46/

Outperform

PE of 32.7 and yield of 1.9% ... continue with the great momentum that keeps exceeding expectations

Solid business
Wide moat/durable competetive advantages
Persistent/predictble FCFs, returns on capital and profit margins
Strong balance sheet (cash, D/E, Current Ratio, etc)
Managers are competent stewards of owner capital
Currently trading well above FV
Fair value = 30.80
Moderate-High FV uncertainty
Buy with 37% MOS below 19.70
Sell now above 41.90

Awesome management

Good management, great net margin and ROI, dividned, and great projected growth.

bad technicals

Good growth world wide

buy the dip

Insider Trading brought me to this stock. Valuation is high, but growth opportunities trump that concern. Was not familiar with the company prior to this week - Surpirsed that it is roughly the same size as Grainger - A name that I am familiar with. One of the coolest things this company does is place product vending machines in their customers facilities - You can walk up to the machine and by a 3/8" carbide drill bit or whatever else you may need - Likely not much profit in the actual drill bit, but the visablity of the machines and the ability of the Fastenal salesmen to gain access to these business on a weekly basis is invaluable.

valuation. P/S is well above reasonable range given op margin

Good long term investment.

No long term debt. Most Innovative and progressive company in thier market. Will take the market by storm w/ the automated solutions machines. These machines will reduce customer TCO and bring about instant accountability for customer consumption.