Facebook, Inc. (NASDAQ:FB)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

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Member Avatar AZgunner (< 20) Submitted: 3/24/2015 12:39:35 PM : Outperform Start Price: $85.76 FB Score: -0.97

Going to put PayPal out of business. With instant messaging and exchanging funds. Their phone apps are way ahead in an aggressive market.

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Member Avatar cmrk3 (33.29) Submitted: 3/21/2015 10:41:50 AM : Outperform Start Price: $83.92 FB Score: +1.49

Barron's List World's Greatest CEOs 3/23/15 - Mark Zuckerberg

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Member Avatar optioncoach (98.36) Submitted: 3/20/2015 11:06:05 AM : Outperform Start Price: $84.15 FB Score: +1.16

Finally trying to break out to the upside. Looks like they are finally trying to move this stock higher. Getting long again. Last time it failed to rally. Going for it again.

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Member Avatar lucdewailly (88.68) Submitted: 3/18/2015 12:11:53 PM : Outperform Start Price: $76.40 FB Score: +6.99

Let's see how their position shakes out in the mobile payment development...

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Member Avatar RexMorganMD (< 20) Submitted: 3/17/2015 11:42:41 PM : Outperform Start Price: $79.25 FB Score: +5.91

Easy to use, growing global internet usage

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Member Avatar Tinkerfan (43.05) Submitted: 3/17/2015 2:23:43 PM : Outperform Start Price: $79.47 FB Score: +5.82

always growing

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Member Avatar Roy3731 (49.86) Submitted: 3/17/2015 12:47:48 PM : Outperform Start Price: $79.36 FB Score: +5.93

this stock is unstoppable...

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Member Avatar Aquest (66.27) Submitted: 3/15/2015 4:59:16 PM : Outperform Start Price: $77.96 FB Score: +7.32

Oculus Rift.

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Member Avatar ajmalagisi (< 20) Submitted: 3/14/2015 12:09:03 PM : Outperform Start Price: $77.96 FB Score: +7.32

Bouncing and time to buy

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Member Avatar thumbsUpFool (98.26) Submitted: 3/12/2015 10:18:44 PM : Underperform Start Price: $78.60 FB Score: -6.48

I am not a naysayer or a doomsday predictor. This market is in new territory though, and it WILL come down sooner, rather than later. There are two strong predictors of serious crashes and those are the Shiller PE (CAPE) and Warren Buffet's favorite Mkt Cap to GNP. The CAPE goes back further, so let's look at that. There have only been three times before now that the CAPE (price to last 10 yr avg earnings or "Cyclically Adjusted PE) has soared past 25x. The Great Depression, The Dot Com boom, and the Housing Boom. All three times the market plummeted back down. The average 3 yr annualized return following these peaks averages about -19%. High PE and negative PE stocks will be absolutely obliterated, and this is one of those. I am calculating based on historical averages that the likelihood the crash has already begun is 27%. It's still more in the markets favor than not that the climb will continue, but each month that passes will eventually tip that in the other direction.

So where are we going?
I don't know, I can only go on history, and history does not always repeat itself exactly the same way. I do know though that I have made many successful stock picks based on books I've read and my personal experiences. History was the sole basis of every one of these books and every one of the decisions I made...

When will the drop occur?
Again, I don't know, I can only guess based on the averages of the amount of time it has taken in the past. In the Great Depression, after the CAPE reached 25, the crash happened within approx 300 days. The market during the dotcom and housing booms started its decline more than 4 years after reaching 25x. It will most likely be somewhere in between but this is one of only 4 data points so many outcomes are possible.

I'm thumbsupfool, why the hell am I giving a thumbs down?

Because this is a seriously overvalued time. One of the greatest in US market history.

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Member Avatar BASSALDMF (51.15) Submitted: 3/5/2015 10:12:28 PM : Outperform Start Price: $80.90 FB Score: +4.72

let us face it, FB is profitable, Twitter is a looser.

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Member Avatar CantonTownship (45.35) Submitted: 3/5/2015 9:50:27 AM : Underperform Start Price: $81.23 FB Score: -4.87

I am not a big fan of email or Facebook.

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Member Avatar skigolfkayak (43.17) Submitted: 3/4/2015 8:27:07 PM : Outperform Start Price: $81.23 FB Score: +4.87

CEO is making me a believer. he is, not appears, visionary. he is altruistic, developed a revenue stream, and leads FB.

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Member Avatar maxxx2004 (54.53) Submitted: 2/24/2015 9:07:52 AM : Underperform Start Price: $78.50 FB Score: -8.66

This locomotive is running out of steam..

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Member Avatar ERojo (< 20) Submitted: 2/17/2015 9:20:39 AM : Underperform Start Price: $75.30 FB Score: -12.37

NSA

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Member Avatar Hitler555 (30.23) Submitted: 2/11/2015 8:18:32 PM : Outperform Start Price: $76.86 FB Score: +9.41

One live with one person when you can invite 200 friends on face book.

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Member Avatar Jim576 (< 20) Submitted: 2/9/2015 2:27:23 PM : Outperform Start Price: $74.63 FB Score: +11.17

Addictive gossip social media with monetization of the service

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Member Avatar Lasereyes (53.95) Submitted: 2/8/2015 9:03:50 PM : Outperform Start Price: $74.05 FB Score: +12.02

They know everything about everyone. Buy and Hold.

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Member Avatar CellBlock9 (91.40) Submitted: 2/8/2015 12:06:39 PM : Outperform Start Price: $74.05 FB Score: +12.02

mgk, S&P 4 star

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Member Avatar TheTaylor (< 20) Submitted: 2/8/2015 1:39:42 AM : Outperform Start Price: $74.05 FB Score: +12.02

They know everything about everyone.
Buy Now.

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