National Beverage Corp. (NASDAQ:FIZZ)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

The Company develops, manufactures, markets and distributes a portfolio of multi-flavored soft drinks, juice drinks, water and specialty beverages.

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Member Avatar CMFmdriver78 (< 20) Submitted: 1/16/2016 6:27:32 PM : Outperform Start Price: $35.79 FIZZ Score: -1.76

SpiffyPop

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Member Avatar TMFSpiffyPop (99.58) Submitted: 1/15/2016 11:52:18 AM : Outperform Start Price: $38.11 FIZZ Score: -8.82

Having a bit of fun here, as I haven't deeply researched FIZZ. On the one hand, it seems better positioned within its industry to shift toward healthier beverage consumption; on the other hand, the stock has had a huge (somewhat hard-to-figure-out) sunup in the past year. But really, it's just for this line alone opening the 2015 annual report -- unusual, somewhat crazy, impressive in a way, and funny -- that I'm choosing Outperform. From the CEO's letter, where the second sentence is the topper:

"There is an atom at the core of this Company; its essence and function is creativity – all forms! What neons that difference is – that atom has been confirmed by the culmination of distinctive innovation. Operationally, we are on course to effectuate a change in our industry as no other company can . . . and our ‘new mindset’ more than amplifies our ability to profoundly change the health of America! What an incredible side effect! National Beverage and that beautiful butterfly on this [annual report’s] cover have a more exciting life as a result of this evolution . . ."

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Member Avatar TMFPencils (99.82) Submitted: 12/4/2015 4:55:47 PM : Underperform Start Price: $43.66 FIZZ Score: +9.80

I like the business -- great operating efficiency (incredible ROE, ROA, and ROC), proven capital allocation skills on the part of this experienced leadership team (including tax savvy, by paying a special dividend in 2012), and it is in a nice position as consumers consume healthier beverages (like sparkling waters and juices) instead of carbonated beverages. I think the company will continue to do well.

The stock, however, I have my doubts about right now. It's nearly doubled over the past six months on virtually no news out of the ordinary (so far as I can tell), and this is not a quickly-growing company. Sales have grown at a CAGR of 0.7% over the past three years, and earnings at a CAGR of 4.3%.

Earnings growth is starting to pick up (up 8.8% over the past year), but it doesn't strike me as enough to justify the stock's P/E of roughly 38.4 -- the highest it's been over the past 10 years. Something's gotta give.

A lofty valuation, growth that's taking a long time to pick up, and an arguably inexplicable run-up in the stock over the past six months makes me think we'll see a lower share price at some point over the next 6-12 months.

I'm optimistic about the long-term opportunities of the company, but can't get past the valuation today. Underperform, for now.

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Member Avatar TMFGalagan (93.09) Submitted: 11/30/2015 1:32:59 PM : Underperform Start Price: $43.10 FIZZ Score: +8.80

Recent double in this low-growth stock makes little sense. Expect it to be special-dividend based and for dividend to be less than most expect.

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Member Avatar meridius91 (36.07) Submitted: 8/12/2015 10:49:48 AM : Outperform Start Price: $23.60 FIZZ Score: +56.70

LaCroix. There is a movement away from soda but not from carbonation. LaCroix is well positioned and can double this stock

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Member Avatar markwilson01 (62.54) Submitted: 7/13/2015 1:47:44 PM : Outperform Start Price: $24.01 FIZZ Score: +55.67

FIZZ is in a great position to capture the healthy trend in the soda market with Le Croix Brands. My Wife and I have never been soda people and now buy truck loads of Le Croix (when it is not sold out at Safeway)

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Member Avatar Brodie408 (< 20) Submitted: 8/17/2013 9:02:27 PM : Outperform Start Price: $16.05 FIZZ Score: +104.23

National Beverage Corp has consistently outperformed the market since its IPO and with solid management and healthy fundamentals this seems unlikely to change.

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Member Avatar RicanMath (65.81) Submitted: 6/18/2013 12:17:56 PM : Outperform Start Price: $17.33 FIZZ Score: +87.96

Strong fundamentals and revenue/income growth with little debt. Well run small company that I look to as a target of acquisition.

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Member Avatar SkidRowYourBoat (< 20) Submitted: 10/11/2010 1:11:23 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.75 FIZZ Score: +158.02

Financials are decent and investors will stay for the dividens.

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Member Avatar josephwrichards (83.56) Submitted: 8/9/2010 11:30:47 AM : Outperform Start Price: $9.94 FIZZ Score: +185.06

Steady sales growth (3% average of last three FY) during recession, Net Income (TTM) vs. 1 Yr Ago(%) of 34.4% vs. 0.3% for industry. Great balance sheet: Current Ratio of 2.3 and Total Debt to Equity of 0.00. Return on Assets (TTM) of 13.7% and Return on Investment (TTM) of 23.2%. Gross margins are below industry averages.

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Member Avatar 21popsontop (< 20) Submitted: 1/11/2010 8:39:17 AM : Outperform Start Price: $8.80 FIZZ Score: +233.56

The company shows to have a little FIZZ about it and little or no dept. Grew right on through the world coming to an end and looks like a company on the ball. Pays a nice dividend for the price and even better should it get cheaper. These kind are hard to figure on market value because sometimes they don't play by the same rules. In fact ,I would say it is overpriced,if using a calculator but if the company continues to breeze through showing laid back,and steady growth, no problems along with the dividend,then could outperform nicely going forward and deserves a look. Strange company to try and put a price on for sure.

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Member Avatar NCSO449 (< 20) Submitted: 1/19/2009 4:21:20 AM : Outperform Start Price: $5.95 FIZZ Score: +360.60

RIP IT ENERGY FUEL!!! I know everyone has not had a RIP IT yet, however the soldiers in IRAQ and other deployed locations are drinking it everyday. It is now sold at Military Exchanges globally. They are now working with Wal Mart to launch the product in their stores. If you have a such a diverse group of consumers as you do in the military you will see FIZZ climb with RIP IT. ripitenergy.com or nationalbeverage.com

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Member Avatar kenny928 (59.63) Submitted: 3/5/2008 12:18:39 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.91 FIZZ Score: +566.19

Watch

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Member Avatar hoytw (39.84) Submitted: 11/18/2007 10:47:13 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.92 FIZZ Score: +574.87

from forbes, nice div.

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Member Avatar watcher91 (< 20) Submitted: 10/16/2007 10:59:56 PM : Underperform Start Price: $6.08 FIZZ Score: -447.27

This stock has struggled to make a hit drink, and will remain flat for quite awhile.

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Member Avatar heavyoil (< 20) Submitted: 10/11/2007 11:44:46 AM : Outperform Start Price: $6.05 FIZZ Score: +452.08

Pays a good dividend

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Member Avatar Zanatose (< 20) Submitted: 9/11/2007 5:46:58 PM : Outperform Start Price: $5.68 FIZZ Score: +481.31

The company has no debt and is profitable despite increases in raw material costs.

Management and insiders have big stakes in the company so I doubt the stock will go down much further.

I can't find any of their products at any of the stores in my area. On one hand, this could be caused by poor products. But poor products are rarely profitable, so I hope this simply means their is lots of room for growth.

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Member Avatar MM4L (81.60) Submitted: 9/2/2007 12:30:44 AM : Underperform Start Price: $6.91 FIZZ Score: -371.22

After being pulled out of Starbuck's stores, I think Jones Soda (JSDA) has gone flat. This was a huge opportunity for Nat'l Beverage to slide in and take that lucrative contract.. maybe even join with Starbuck's and produce some new sodas under the profitable Starbuck's label. Didn't happen. Even if I was a big fan of some other of Nat'l Bev Corp.'s variety of soft drink products, I don't know where, for the life of me, I could even find them.

WHAT THEY PRODUCE: Faygo, Everfresh, Home Juice, Mr. Pure 100% juice and juice-based products, LaCroix, Shasta, Crystal Bay and ClearFruit flavored and spring water products, Rip It, Rip It Chic, FREE, PowerBlast, St. Nick's and Ohana fruit-flavored drinks.

Of those, I have tried Shasta. Would I choose a Shasta over a major brand (Coke or Pepsi product)? Not no, but hell no. Shasta is the soda you drink when it is the only option.

No ads, no promotions, no FIZZ.

CRYSTAL BALL: I would not be surprised to see the management cash out and leave the shareholders and Nat'l Bev product fans (if there really are any) high-and-dry.

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Member Avatar RangeDog (< 20) Submitted: 7/20/2007 3:56:09 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.85 FIZZ Score: +381.23

Pitch:

This is a company to both love an hate. You have to love the fact that they appear to have such a strong financial position. You have to hate the fact that their creative marketing is so horribly below potential. To date they have been unable to come up with that mainstream hit from within. Hopefully the Jones Soda deal will provide a more aggressive growth element that the company has been lacking, and if one of new internal offerings FINALLY hits, this could be a very, very nice ride. I'm in at $10-11, but in the short term I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock price hit $8.

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Member Avatar gloii (< 20) Submitted: 4/18/2007 1:12:45 AM : Underperform Start Price: $8.83 FIZZ Score: -260.33

I bought this one at 13, rode a short rollercoaster and sold at 15. I think its long term prospects are not that great. National beverage has been around for a while but name recognition on their most popular drinks will not drive it to great success in my opinion.

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