The First Marblehead Corp (FMD)

if cannot find a job, get a loan to study. Plain and simple

FMD has a too high valuation compared to its sales potential. It is also loss making at least until 2010. Its stock price may be more than halved.

Another "personalized" reccommendation.
I wonder how many fools get the same reccommendation the same day I do.
Anyway, they have done fairly well for me in the past and the company looks cheap at the current price.

The was a MF Hidden Gem. I like to keep gems around to remind me ...

It seemed like a good idea at the time... sigh.

Fishing. This one's got whiskers, if'n I'm right.

These guys need to find something else to do because their core business is as good as dead. Obama Admin's made its intentions clear that they're planning on eliminating the middleman when it comes to doling out student loans. FMD is the middleman.

Taking a chance on a stock that is not directly tied to mortgages and the toxic debt explosion but has been swept up in the credit crunch. A very risky pick for a RL portfolio but big potential, at least in CAPS.

this stock is in a perfect position to make me big money. Credit will start flowinng eventually, Obama is big on education and this stock is cheap. In time, this stock will make me some serious green.

Hopeful bottom pick

Losses piling on top of losses.

This prie is too low to pass up. This stock will benefit when credit starts to flow again.

The officers have abandoned ship, the agreement with TERI went under, the market for loans is permanently impaired. This is just a shell now.

POSITIVES
1) Core franchise and know-how in long term business - student loans
2) Belief is that the student loan origination business is more important here that the loan pooling and securitization capabilities
3) Founder return
4) Large Goldman Sachs private equity funding in the middle of the crisis shows confidence

NEUTRAL
1) Company needs to change their financing model in the short-to-medium term since securitization is not currently available.

NEGATIVES
1) Very large risk is that Securitization market are closed for extended period of time and the company fails to find other ways to finance its student loan origination

Student loans

Playing a risk/reward ratio here on the likely probability that the credit markets will eventually stabilize.

Student loan demand increasing. Dan Meyers back at the helm. Will asset backed securities unfreeze soon?

Should climb out

This is an experimental portfolio consisting of small-cap or larger picks that have recently entered the $1.50-3.00 range (favoring the low end), with the theory being that most stocks entering this range are not going to stay there unless they've been there for a while already.

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FMD's business is going to languish for a while, but let's take a look at their current situation. P/E ratio is 1.75. Long-Term Debt to Equity is 0.58. Quick ratio is OVER 50! Unless they keep sliding down a slippery slope, this company is not going to vanish. With a little strategic direction, they are back in business.