First Marblehead Corp (NYSE:FMD)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

The Company with its subsidiaries offers national, regional financial, educational institutions, as well as businesses, education loan marketers & other organizations, a suite of outsourcing services for private education lending in the U.S.

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Member Avatar SoMch2Knw (83.84) Submitted: 10/8/2013 3:22:46 PM : Outperform Start Price: $8.49 FMD Score: -67.32

Time to re-trigger my biggest loser...

http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/gallery.html?FMD

... holding out hope. FM is just starting to reap the benefits of its past 5 year reorganizing. A deadly IRS decision looms in the future, but here at 80 cents I'll risk a little sump'n sumpin.

Not exiting losers that might rebound here in CAPs land is not beneficial to your score (I think).

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Member Avatar BACnumber1 (< 20) Submitted: 9/11/2013 7:57:19 AM : Outperform Start Price: $8.60 FMD Score: -66.21

priced low now.

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Member Avatar roe123 (< 20) Submitted: 5/8/2012 4:52:37 AM : Outperform Start Price: $9.90 FMD Score: -102.74

First, the revenue model is on the right track. FMD's revenue model is comprised of 4 segments:

- Partner lending: Suntrust consilidated all of its student lending activities through FMD. After July 2012, the regulatory uncertainties will disapear (report is expected from the CFTB), and that should bring back major players into the field. That should help buiding a partner rooster.
- Banking services: UFSB is already profitable.
- Capital markets: They are improving. Securitization revenues are not out of sight.
- Fee for service: TMS is having a big success and will be even more succesfull with the new refund management business in the next months.

Second, the expenses are well managed and the company is in good financial position:

- Expenses have been reduced by 78% in the last years, and there is still room to further reduce it (as mentioned in the last CC).
- Company has no dept, and $201M in cash, plus assets worths 2x that amount (so it is trading at 0,5$ per cash dollar)...

Third, the products and services are being accepted by the market and industy:

- 704 schools now recommending monogram
- Partnership with NAIS has big potential (2100 schools, 400 000 families), for monogram and TMS

Forth, the timing:

- The financials of the company have been recently simplified (de-consolidation of trusts). That attracted a lot more analysts (as show during the last CC) as the statements were hard to interpret
- The company experienced an increase (3 to 4 fold) of the loan demand in the last 3 months compared to last year (quiet months)
- Direct marketing dollars are budgeted

Disclosure: I am long fmd.

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Member Avatar ViDLuV (60.76) Submitted: 8/18/2011 6:21:43 PM : Underperform Start Price: $12.20 FMD Score: +143.30

Near 52 week low. Will test this low and probably come close to 1.00 before bouncing if at all.

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Member Avatar AllenSmithee (73.59) Submitted: 7/27/2011 5:57:12 PM : Outperform Start Price: $15.60 FMD Score: -127.24

misunderstood company

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Member Avatar MKArch (99.74) Submitted: 5/17/2011 10:25:46 AM : Outperform Start Price: $18.20 FMD Score: -129.19

An old favorite hidden gem that I bailed on in my personal portfolio a couple of years ago when it looked to me like securitizing student loans was gone for good and managment didn't seem to be considering any other options. I cleared it out of my CAPS portfolio a few months ago when I needed room for something new and was looking for dead wood to prune away. They have been developing some fee businesses lately including an acquisition but nothing that had me thinking they have a viable business model.

Last night's earnings announcement changed my mind enough to add them back in CAPS anyway. Forget the different statements that show nothing more than a non business slowly burning cash. The announcement that they will not be selling their tiny bank franchise (one branch I think) and will start originating student loans from the bank in 2012 has me interested in the FMD story again. I'm no financial expert however it would seem to me that the tiny size of their bank and stricter lending regulations would make it difficult for them to build a student loan focused lending operation up any time soon. However FMD fans will probably recall that Goldman Sach's invested several hundred million dollars in FMD in the early days of the financial crisis at prices of ~$12.00-$15.00/ share. There was speculation at the time that G.S. would assist FMD in becoming a spread lender and in fact offered a warehouse loan that seemed to fit that bill that FMD ultimately declined to accept. I'm thinking G.S. might be in the background looking to salvage their investment here and it's at least worth another CAPS thumbs up bet.

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Member Avatar Notwage (< 20) Submitted: 3/21/2011 9:16:22 PM : Outperform Start Price: $20.90 FMD Score: -136.20

Big speculative play.

Can management find a new way to grow revenues? Looks like they have a solid chance with their new focus.

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Member Avatar haoluoluo (98.72) Submitted: 11/24/2010 12:17:25 PM : Outperform Start Price: $20.89 FMD Score: -149.11

Turn around play. New business models defined and launched. Adequate cash on hand to survive. Can potentially (but still far from) stand on its own without capital market operations, and gravy if cap mkt does come back to life for private student loans. Most recent acquisition of TMS shows management's confidence in cash position and focus on growth.

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Member Avatar Houston1817 (< 20) Submitted: 5/2/2010 12:42:50 AM : Outperform Start Price: $29.80 FMD Score: -162.72

FMD

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Member Avatar medinaluis (< 20) Submitted: 11/18/2009 10:09:13 PM : Outperform Start Price: $22.30 FMD Score: -165.37

if cannot find a job, get a loan to study. Plain and simple

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Member Avatar WF2005 (29.69) Submitted: 8/21/2009 11:41:56 AM : Outperform Start Price: $360.24 FMD Score: -174.73

The was a MF Hidden Gem. I like to keep gems around to remind me ...

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Member Avatar GenChaos (78.87) Submitted: 6/18/2009 2:26:36 PM : Underperform Start Price: $18.50 FMD Score: +199.85

These guys need to find something else to do because their core business is as good as dead. Obama Admin's made its intentions clear that they're planning on eliminating the middleman when it comes to doling out student loans. FMD is the middleman.

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Member Avatar Ibeatmykids (77.27) Submitted: 4/8/2009 1:40:11 PM : Outperform Start Price: $23.40 FMD Score: -232.03

this stock is in a perfect position to make me big money. Credit will start flowinng eventually, Obama is big on education and this stock is cheap. In time, this stock will make me some serious green.

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Member Avatar dougs65 (38.13) Submitted: 11/2/2008 9:57:37 PM : Outperform Start Price: $17.90 FMD Score: -191.89

This prie is too low to pass up. This stock will benefit when credit starts to flow again.

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Member Avatar daddylight (33.36) Submitted: 10/23/2008 11:31:38 AM : Underperform Start Price: $17.90 FMD Score: +146.93

The officers have abandoned ship, the agreement with TERI went under, the market for loans is permanently impaired. This is just a shell now.

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Member Avatar ajfuchs (< 20) Submitted: 10/18/2008 10:08:24 AM : Outperform Start Price: $16.90 FMD Score: -193.59

POSITIVES
1) Core franchise and know-how in long term business - student loans
2) Belief is that the student loan origination business is more important here that the loan pooling and securitization capabilities
3) Founder return
4) Large Goldman Sachs private equity funding in the middle of the crisis shows confidence

NEUTRAL
1) Company needs to change their financing model in the short-to-medium term since securitization is not currently available.

NEGATIVES
1) Very large risk is that Securitization market are closed for extended period of time and the company fails to find other ways to finance its student loan origination

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Member Avatar lawyerguy (< 20) Submitted: 10/14/2008 4:39:50 PM : Outperform Start Price: $18.20 FMD Score: -190.97

Playing a risk/reward ratio here on the likely probability that the credit markets will eventually stabilize.

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Member Avatar jnkeefe (< 20) Submitted: 10/13/2008 5:38:55 PM : Outperform Start Price: $21.10 FMD Score: -179.63

Should climb out

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Member Avatar RNZ100 (93.29) Submitted: 10/8/2008 8:13:20 PM : Outperform Start Price: $17.50 FMD Score: -185.25

Oversold (but then again, what isn't?!)

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Member Avatar FSOAbroad (84.43) Submitted: 9/30/2008 3:46:53 AM : Outperform Start Price: $25.00 FMD Score: -167.11

Going to try and take advantage of the current volatility to make some easy points. If the stock goes up several hundred percent I'll even make my real money back.

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