Fossil Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FOSL)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

The Company is a design, development, marketing and distribution company that focus in consumer fashion accessories.

FOSL News and Commentary

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All Players

503 Outperform
65 Underperform
 

All-Star Players

116 Outperform
12 Underperform
 

Wall Street

15 Outperform
3 Underperform
 

Top FOSL Bull/Bear Pitches

The best Bull and Bear pitches based on recency and number of recommendations.

TMF1000 (99.77)
Submitted May 30, 2017

Started at $12.62. This is a long-term play on smart-watches by FossilIn 2017, they will launch over 300 SKUs, introducing smart products to all of their licensed brands. The products will be improved from last year. There will be more innovations in… More

PdoBear (24.36)
Submitted September 11, 2009

The CEO is looking at the time on his Blackberry right now. It shows it is the time to GTF_. And he is. The insiders are dumping their shares faster than the guys at AVIS. Watches may not be as obsolete as newspapers but they're becoming that way.

FOSL VS S&P 500 (SPY)

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Recent Community Commentary

Read the most recent pitches from players about FOSL.

Recs

0
Member Avatar TMFFlygal (99.27) Submitted: 7/18/2017 9:07:13 PM : Outperform Start Price: $10.26 FOSL Score: +4.99

cash flow yield

Recs

3
Member Avatar TMF1000 (99.77) Submitted: 5/30/2017 10:01:22 AM : Outperform Start Price: $12.62 FOSL Score: -17.25

Started at $12.62. This is a long-term play on smart-watches by Fossil

In 2017, they will launch over 300 SKUs, introducing smart products to all of their licensed brands. The products will be improved from last year. There will be more innovations in function and design, better software and apps and they will be slimmer and sleeker. The addition of these watches will help expand their addressable market. The wearable category creates a 30% larger market for Fossil and wearable category is growing at a 20% a year clip compared to a decline in sales of traditional watches.

By 2020, they will also be introducing connected jewelry, a market that is expected to grow to $4 billion in 2020. The smart bracelets will help them build their fitness tracker products category.

They will continue to reduce their traditional watch SKUs. SKUs for traditional watches are down 16% from last year and that reduction will continue. In 2016, they sold 1.5 million wearables, which represented sales of $170 million. The majority of these sales came from Fossil and KORS during the fourth quarter. These products have lower margins than traditional watches, but as they scale up the number sold in 2017, costs they must pay to suppliers will decline improving margins. Currently wearable margins are in the mid-40% range.

Greater scale should mean better prices paid to suppliers, which will help boost gross margins. Gross margins need to come up into the 50%+ range, closer to traditional watch margins. In 2017, they plan on investing 10 points of connected margins to generate greater volume sales, which in time will improve margins as they renegotiate contract with suppliers.

It estimated that the wearable market was $13 billion in 2016. This market is believed to have the potential to double in the next four years and all of the growth will come from the sale of watches.

The first quarter of 2017 is expected to be the weakest quarter. There will be forty fewer stores in operation. Plus they will be selling less through off-price channels. After the first quarter, their goal is to improve top line growth sequentially throughout the year as they introduce more wearables. Margins will still be lower on these products, so earnings aren’t expected to be very strong. They also will be advertising more. The majority of earnings, for 2017, will be generated in the fourth quarter. It is going to be a long year for investors.

Perhaps the price will fall further. But five years from now, what will the New Fossil look like? Can they once again, including smartwatches hit the $2.7 billion sales mark record? Can they exceed it? Can they improve gross margins on the wearable sales to 56%, like they did with traditional watches? Smartwatches sell at higher price points, so why can't they build up margins as demand increases? If they can hit the $3 billion mark in watch sales, with 56% overall margins, the far fewer shares outstanding should allow them to record substantially higher record net income per share. And to me that is worth building a position in them now. There is risk. Apple and another watch retailer may take market share from Fossil. I recognize the risk and will allocate accordingly, but this seems like a good five year calculated risk.

Recs

0
Member Avatar TheNatureBoy4 (72.25) Submitted: 3/30/2017 10:40:57 AM : Outperform Start Price: $19.06 FOSL Score: -48.48

I love getting burned on this piece of s%!t stock. I've called this the wrong way many times.

Leaderboard

Find the members with the highest scoring picks in FOSL.

Score Leader

jasffsaj

jasffsaj (95.54) Score: +662.80

The Score Leader is the player with the highest score across all their picks in FOSL.

Top
Pick
Member Name Member
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
Index
Gain
Score Commentary
NVTreasureHunter 28.90 7/17/2009 Underperform NS $24.26 -55.36% +164.22% +219.58 0 Comment
UndatheRadar < 20 1/22/2009 Underperform 1Y $12.00 -9.75% +205.47% +215.22 1 Comment
zeusol < 20 12/19/2008 Underperform 3Y $15.50 -30.13% +182.43% +212.56 1 Comment
qasamm 24.30 8/31/2010 Underperform 3Y $48.46 -77.65% +134.90% +212.55 0 Comment
gillyman32 < 20 9/3/2010 Underperform 1Y $50.20 -78.43% +123.46% +201.89 0 Comment
TheDKG 51.98 9/8/2009 Underperform 3M $27.23 -60.23% +141.34% +201.57 0 Comment
PdoBear 24.36 9/11/2009 Underperform 5Y $28.09 -61.45% +137.19% +198.63 1 Comment
anil1942 < 20 9/28/2009 Underperform 1Y $27.97 -61.28% +135.98% +197.26 0 Comment
Phoenix748 < 20 10/14/2008 Underperform 3M $18.98 -42.94% +153.57% +196.51 0 Comment
TrackCarter < 20 9/21/2009 Underperform 3M $29.12 -62.81% +133.66% +196.47 0 Comment

Wall Street

See what the Wall Street professionals think, according to their public statements and filings.

Player Name Player
Rating
Start
Date
Call Time
Frame
Start
Price
Stock
Gain
S&P
Gain
Score End Date Commentary
TrackStandpoint 40.20 10/14/2014 Outperform 5Y $99.42 -56.11% +2.54% -58.65 2/18/2016 @ $43.64 0 Comment
trackisigroup 71.87 10/2/2014 Outperform NS $93.66 -88.44% +27.42% -115.85 0 Comment
TrackKeyBanc 97.50 1/13/2014 Underperform NS $118.83 -90.89% +34.68% +125.57 0 Comment
TrackPiperJaff 86.76 10/23/2013 Outperform NS $125.97 -91.40% +41.54% -132.94 0 Comment
TrackBarclaysCap 91.52 8/5/2013 Underperform NS $110.70 -90.22% +45.05% +135.27 0 Comment
TrackCitigroup 94.35 10/16/2012 Outperform NS $87.60 -87.64% +70.92% -158.55 0 Comment
TrackZacks < 20 8/7/2012 Underperform 3M $91.77 -8.21% +1.88% +10.09 11/6/2012 @ $84.24 1 Comment
TrackCitigroup 94.35 5/16/2012 Outperform NS $74.60 +19.57% +4.60% +14.97 8/8/2012 @ $89.20 0 Comment
trackbenchmark 99.63 5/9/2012 Outperform NS $78.80 +33.60% +12.35% +21.25 2/11/2013 @ $105.28 0 Comment
TrackZacks < 20 1/11/2012 Underperform 3M $79.37 +68.49% +8.25% -60.24 4/4/2012 @ $133.73 1 Comment
TrackBreanMurray 78.52 1/9/2012 Outperform NS $80.79 +20.70% +4.67% +16.03 2/7/2012 @ $97.51 0 Comment
TrackKeyBanc 97.50 1/5/2012 Outperform NS $78.64 +48.55% +44.82% +3.73 1/10/2014 @ $116.82 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 84.69 12/14/2011 Underperform 3W $81.53 -86.72% +103.24% +189.95 0 Comment
TrackTheBenchmar 82.29 11/28/2011 Outperform NS $87.59 +34.16% +13.28% +20.88 2/15/2012 @ $117.51 0 Comment
TrackUltraLong 23.42 11/8/2011 Outperform NS $90.41 -88.02% +94.94% -182.96 1 Comment
TrackCharlesPayn < 20 9/23/2011 Outperform 3M $94.19 -88.50% +117.91% -206.42 0 Comment
TrackTheBenchmar 82.29 8/10/2011 Outperform NS $81.49 +28.85% +11.42% +17.43 10/28/2011 @ $105.00 0 Comment
TrackZacks < 20 8/8/2011 Outperform 3M $93.89 +0.98% +13.91% -12.93 11/8/2011 @ $94.81 1 Comment
TrackHeebner 41.33 12/31/2010 Outperform NS $70.48 -84.63% +98.57% -183.21 0 Comment
TrackBBTCapMkts 84.22 11/2/2010 Outperform NS $59.92 -81.93% +107.18% -189.11 0 Comment
TrackJimCramer 84.69 8/19/2010 Outperform 3W $44.14 +84.71% +12.85% +71.86 12/15/2011 @ $81.53 0 Comment
TrackBreanMurray 78.52 1/11/2010 Outperform NS $35.44 +197.71% +10.37% +187.35 10/31/2011 @ $105.51 0 Comment
TrackJesupLamont 75.20 12/2/2009 Outperform NS $32.00 -66.16% +122.34% -188.50 0 Comment
TrackJefferies 84.72 9/3/2009 Outperform NS $25.16 -56.96% +149.14% -206.09 0 Comment
TrackSunTrustRH 87.02 2/18/2009 Outperform NS $13.30 -18.57% +215.56% -234.13 0 Comment
TrackRonBaron 80.58 3/31/2008 Outperform NS $30.54 -64.54% +94.42% -158.96 1 Comment
TrackPiperJaff 86.76 2/5/2008 Outperform NS $35.30 +87.59% -0.71% +88.31 7/24/2012 @ $66.22 0 Comment
TrackCowenandCo 86.06 11/2/2007 Outperform NS $35.97 -69.89% +71.42% -141.31 0 Comment
TrackSoros 86.75 9/30/2007 Outperform NS $37.36 -71.01% +69.90% -140.91 1 Comment
TrackNWQ < 20 9/30/2007 Outperform NS $37.36 -71.01% +69.90% -140.91 2 Comments
TrackJimCramer 84.69 9/24/2007 Underperform 3W $36.88 +19.69% -28.88% -48.57 8/19/2010 @ $44.14 0 Comment
TrackPiperJaff 86.76 8/15/2007 Outperform NS $30.38 +32.62% +2.89% +29.73 1/2/2008 @ $40.29 0 Comment
TrackWellsFargo 93.32 2/21/2007 Outperform NS $27.92 -61.21% +80.35% -141.56 0 Comment

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