Fossil Group, Inc. (NASDAQ:FOSL)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

The Company is a design, development, marketing and distribution company that focus in consumer fashion accessories.

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Member Avatar TSIF (99.96) Submitted: 1/15/2016 4:01:12 PM : Outperform Start Price: $29.59 FOSL Score: +13.71

I would NOT have touched Fossil Group at $100 a year ago....at $60 Five Months ago...at $50 two months ago...

It slammed down to $30, but I doubt that had I been paying attention I would not have been interested from $50 to $35...

It's been a highly over valued equity for years, bumping up to $130 and back down again, but never near a reasonable valuation.

At this level it is much more interesting. The margins are decent for retail. Cash flow is outstanding. Unlike most retailers, it has been profitable all four quarters of a year, not just the fall or holidays. Buying back a half Billion in stock each of the last three years is keeping the net tangible from growing, but for a company with a 1.5B market cap, the buy downs have only improved valuation, not decreased it. (I would rather they had not borrowed to do it..)

Overall, the 350 stores, 250 outlets, and worldwide reach with brand names (FOSSIL, MICHELE, RELIC, SKAGEN, and ZODIAC, as well as under the licensed brands, including ADIDAS, ARMANI EXCHANGE, BURBERRY, DIESEL, DKNY, EMPORIO ARMANI, KARL LAGERFELD, MARC BY MARC JACOBS, MICHAEL KORS, and TORY BURCH) gives this one a good chance of maintaining even in a down market. The biggest detriment I see is the exchange rate.

Wasn't a fan, but under the right conditions, I can re-evaluate. Hold/monitor....if I'm right this one should be a nice up-thumb addition.

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Member Avatar PrototypeZ (23.55) Submitted: 12/30/2015 2:08:33 PM : Underperform Start Price: $37.13 FOSL Score: +0.84

Theory test: Poor performers for 2015 will continue to be poor performers in 2016

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Member Avatar MysterInsidious (33.50) Submitted: 12/18/2015 8:09:16 AM : Underperform Start Price: $35.50 FOSL Score: -1.88

Fossil downgraded to Sell by Goldman Sachs with a price target of $26. The fashion watch business is rapidly shrinking and it will be very challenging for Fossil to compete in a very crowded smart watch market.

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Member Avatar AnsgarJohn (94.75) Submitted: 12/14/2015 7:40:18 AM : Outperform Start Price: $37.76 FOSL Score: -2.87

Nice dip Fossil Beter in Beleggen recommendatio for 2015 For the full year, revenue is now expected to decline by 8% to 10.5%, with EPS between $4.15 and $4.75.

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Member Avatar FoolDiligence (< 20) Submitted: 11/28/2015 5:30:44 PM : Outperform Start Price: $83.08 FOSL Score: -48.19

Using CAPS to track after appearing on Greenblatt screen

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Member Avatar kGen (29.82) Submitted: 11/19/2015 10:07:30 AM : Outperform Start Price: $35.92 FOSL Score: +3.48

I bought it at 35.7, it's worth 96.7 according to the Peter Lynch line. I will sell at 80.

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Member Avatar roymarshall (26.22) Submitted: 11/13/2015 2:50:11 PM : Outperform Start Price: $32.98 FOSL Score: +8.95

Waiting for the shorts to cover. buy orders is from 33.18-33.35. thats where people are trying to pick this up long

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Member Avatar CH37 (39.54) Submitted: 11/13/2015 10:38:26 AM : Outperform Start Price: $34.77 FOSL Score: +4.11

so cheap , why ?

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Member Avatar NHWeston102 (< 20) Submitted: 10/2/2015 11:26:59 AM : Underperform Start Price: $53.94 FOSL Score: +35.80

May be heading for extinction....a merchandising trilobite, neither leading in luxury or tantalizing for tech. Won't be a good year if interest rates rise, either.

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Member Avatar theo20185 (21.11) Submitted: 4/14/2015 6:35:46 PM : Outperform Start Price: $81.14 FOSL Score: -47.76

Fossil was hit hard by lowered guidance for 2015 and the release of Apple's smart watch. The company's earnings are still good, and the lowered price makes this an opportunity to start the pick.

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Member Avatar Lawrence56 (< 20) Submitted: 4/13/2015 12:22:02 PM : Underperform Start Price: $83.44 FOSL Score: +48.92

Smart watches need an ecosystem

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Member Avatar TMFRedRaider (54.01) Submitted: 3/30/2015 11:10:39 AM : Outperform Start Price: $82.06 FOSL Score: -49.13

This is a valuation call. Yielding 7% FCF doesn't require huge growth to outperform. My conservative estimate for ROIC is about 16%, which is likely low.

The days of double-digit growth may be over but I still expect something around 8% or 9%. They continue to be the main licensee for mid-luxury brands as evidenced by the KORS renewal and the addition of Kate Spade.

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Member Avatar skat5 (83.10) Submitted: 1/23/2015 6:39:30 PM : Underperform Start Price: $99.11 FOSL Score: +57.53

The soaring soaring Swiss currency will make this company's watches either very pricey, or very unprofitable if they have to mark them down. This applies to any Swiss company, no matter how great their product.

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Member Avatar CMF_AMDG4 (36.43) Submitted: 1/23/2015 5:45:05 PM : Outperform Start Price: $99.11 FOSL Score: -57.53

Looking at metrics it looks reasonably priced compared to it's peers. It is trading at the low range of its 52 week hi/low. Is selling 13% below price target. Way more stylish than Coach. The women in my neighborhood. (early adapters: read: quite of few Tesla's) go for FOSL over Coach.

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Member Avatar learnedall (22.82) Submitted: 9/12/2014 4:10:20 PM : Underperform Start Price: $103.46 FOSL Score: +61.48

Digital watches, notably apple's watch, spells trouble for fossil's long term prospects, as well as other watch companies that aren't high end premium brands. Digital watches easily supplant low end watches just by pure functionality.

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Member Avatar rknapton (24.41) Submitted: 8/26/2013 7:50:39 PM : Outperform Start Price: $115.28 FOSL Score: -84.63

Long. Grew revenues 11% last quarter and earnings by 18%, so decently valued at 16x forward estimates.

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Member Avatar FOOLIN7 (31.84) Submitted: 4/5/2013 3:20:00 PM : Outperform Start Price: $92.77 FOSL Score: -84.67

SS#16

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Member Avatar johnrobi (< 20) Submitted: 2/25/2013 12:55:18 AM : Outperform Start Price: $101.90 FOSL Score: -89.56

Fossil's management has performed masterfully. This is a situation where a management team with reputation for brilliance is running a business with great economics, as WB might say. The growth numbers speak for themselves. More notably, the company has foresight to pinpoint future headwinds such as the expiration of licensing agreements. The firm has made strategic bolt-on acquisitions in sourcing and distribution. This will further enable them to control costs and renew licensing agreements that will result in maintained margins. Further, the company has recognized the need for brand trust within foreign markets and further established their European footprint with the Skagen acquisition. When you buy Fossil, you buy into the growth of companies like Michael Kors, for whom Fossil produces watches and jewelry.Their moat is widening. Valuation is scary, but with much more room to grow, it is worth buying for the long-term. I am confident more watches will be sold, in aggregate, five years from now and I think there is a high probability that Fossil will increase its share of this growing pie.

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Member Avatar 2008Rehab (< 20) Submitted: 9/8/2012 8:55:01 AM : Outperform Start Price: $85.84 FOSL Score: -90.59

They make nice watches.

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Member Avatar MiguelCouto (< 20) Submitted: 7/13/2012 5:08:53 AM : Outperform Start Price: $66.00 FOSL Score: -88.74

Good past performance after 2008/2009 crisis

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