CurrencyShares British Pound Ster. Trst (FXB)

shorting all currency funds. it would be sad if they outperform s&p at these low rates and GBP isn't what it used to be to boot.

One of many currencies I have recently made an underperform call on.

If a currency outperforms the s&p for an extended period of time with this little leverage, it will be the new "American dollar" from a new global powerhouse with the military, economic conditions, tax base, stability, and political will similar to the U.S. China is my vote for the future global safehouse, but I can't see global investors trusting their capital with a communist regime. The consensus seems to be that the dollar will be slowly replaced by a basket of stable currencies, and as such, the S&P should outperform these currencies in the long run.

--Wh1sp

Continued national credit rating downgrades relative to other western nations will result in difficulty borrowing and higher interest rates, hindering long-term economic prospects.

WELL HES A STUPID BOY AND THE NEXT LIFE IS JAPANESE!

Interesting, but I'm going with stocks.

FXB

USD FXB FXE FXF FXC FXS FXM

This is a one-star company within 10% of its 52-week high. It's gotta go down some time!

The dollar has been falling like boxers who fought Mike Tyson before he was old enough to drink. Right now I wouldn’t bet on Mike Tyson, and wouldn’t bet on the Euro either. It seems we may have a perfect storm ahead, and a better way to play the oil bubble. It is very interesting how things have gone over the years, as major changes in the market have changed the way investors have and will play it. Over the last year oil has had a parabolic move upward and looking at its trading from $131 to $139 a barrel, it has looked to have topped out a couple weeks ago. It seems the traders could smell it. The change in momentum beginning with an investigation into speculators pushing the price of oil up and nothing gets politicians moving like constituents running low on disposable income (its about the only thing that gets a politician moving). When this didn’t work there was rhetoric about how the price of oil was inflated and it had nothing to do with supply and demand. Some blame ETFs such as OIL and USO, others blame speculators, I believe that most of the problem is the race between the US and China to fill their strategic oil reserves and now the US has backed off. Since this and OPEC’s words didn’t bring the price down they decided to start pumping an extra 200,000 barrels a day next month. This is not the key to getting everyone out of oil bull mode, but it was the language used. Farhan Haq, spokesman for Ban Ki-moon, stated that he was told Ali al-Naimi said that production would increase 200,000 barrels and that “the King believes that the current oil prices are abnormally high, and he is ready to restore prices to their appropriate levels.”

A move downward in oil should be expected as not too long ago the price of oil had its largest one day dollar move ever. That was a point where speculation should have been made with respect to a bearish oil move. The Euro will be adversely affected as a decrease in oil price will inflate the dollar. The dollar will strengthen as we pay less to import oil and thus decrease the trade deficit. The dollar has been rallying for a while as I believe the market believed the dollar had bottomed. OPEC stated that the price of oil must be brought down because higher prices will lower demand and hurt OPEC’s market. I think the statement was true, but there is another reason that they are backing a lower oil price. Ali al-Naimi stated last week that increasing production would do nothing in reducing the price of oil. Also, even with less demand, oil at a higher price helps OPEC. The reason I believe that they increased production was the weak dollar. Oil producing nations have bought many dollars as an investment, but also have many emerging markets such as China. These investments are in jeopardy as countries have been skeptical of increased investment as they have seen their own currency growth surpassed by losses in the US currency. If this skepticism turns into a flight from the dollar we could see a tremendous drop as investors all over the world try to release their positions. It is not a worry that the dollar is weak, as it has been for sometime, but there needs to be some assurance that it will rebound at some point. There is no problem with the US working from a deficit as the rest of the world saves as long as this debt is bought back at some point as it was done during the Clinton years.

OPEC’s move to protect the dollar will increase investment and push it higher. This is not the only thing that will push the Euro downward. Europe has seen a major move in their real estate markets over the past few years. This move has been likened to a mini US bubble as they have the same problems as the US only on a smaller scale. This along with Europe’s unwillingness to cut rates and lower chances of inflation could cut decrease their growth much more than that of the US going forward. All of this makes me quite bearish on the Euro going forward as the US dollar appreciates in the coming years.

US AND BRITISH CURRENCIES TIED TOGETHER. THE POUND IS ON THE DECLINE

Excellent hedge against the dollar.

While the $ is going down, the pound will go up.

Dollar will continue to fall against major currencies. British interest rates are rising, hence monthly dividends become more attractive.

no one better than this

See my pitch under FXE.

The world's supply of currency as a whole can only increase at the global level of inflation. The dollar has been beat up and taken through the mud though the dollar could struggle for years to come, I believe the contrarian play is the most prudent. With global securities and small caps outperforming large caps by a record level the last 6-7 years. I am finding most of the values in stocks that are part of the S&P. With real estate crashing, inflation looming it's head, and all-star emerging markets fund managers saying that it's getting harder to find REAL values, the S&P 500 may be the BEST way to play the upcoming bear market. *scratches head*... oddly enough. I believe that the S&P will outperform TIPS (a synthetic inflation fighter, vs. the natural inflation fighter the stock market).

For the last 8 years, investors have been working SOOOO hard to outperform 75% of the market (the S&P 500). This has been easy to do over the last 8 years simply by NOT investing in the S&P 500. Times are changing and as fewer and fewer people leave the large cap sandbox, the better opportunity there is for the biggest sandbox in the park. My prediction at the start of last year has already started coming true (the S&P 500 will be much more difficult to beat moving forward). I don't believe this is out of steam either. With a long term pick, the dollar could easily regain ground over the long run, in which case the relative value of other securities will naturally drop, making the relative value of the S&P 500 a massive winner. Fool on!!!

Unless you've been living under a rock the past few years, you no doubt have heard plenty of reasons why the US dollar is sure to drop. However:
1) All the other people who aren't living under rocks have heard it too, so all the bearish arguments should already be factored into the price
2) This is being compared to the S&P 500, which has returned an average of about 10% per year over the long term -- the pound would have to average a 10% gain per year, every year, to match this
3) On a purchasing power basis, the British Pound (and other major European currencies) are currently significantly overvalued versus the US dollar