CurrencyShares Euro Trust (FXE)

short all currency funds.

Recoverin in Europe is faster than expected. BCE is going to rise rates at similar time than EEUU.

EUR/USD: The Euro hit $1.60 April 2008, then retraced to $1.25 October-November. Now $1.41.

If Euro breaks $1.60, it could form a fifth wave up. But the dependence of Europe upon exports suggests that their economies cannot support a much stronger Euro. This would be an unstable period that would sooner or later top and reverse.

EUR has support around $1.30 and $1.25 (9-month low). But Fibonacci says EUR could retrace to about $1.15... the lowest since October 2003. And if it can break these levels (and some support around $1.10-$1.05), it could fall back to? parity.

In the short term, FXE is failing at a test of resistance at its 2-month highs ($1.43). Stochastics are failing to form a new high on this test of resistance, confirming the case for a reversal, which has already formed 4 consecutive bearish candles.
During the run-up to this level 2 months back, the stochastics were very overbought for an extended period. Stochastics fell sharply, but FXE remained range-bound near the 1.43 highs. These divergences suggest that another selloff may be in store.

EVER HEARD OF AVERAGES!

Europe is broke.

the euro will get stronger and stronger against the dollar due to monetary emission by the US federal reserve.

The amount of <20 players bearish on the Euro is astonishing and should be looked as a contrarian indicator.

Eurodollar postionning on retail traders and speculators is -1.5 and is also a good contrarian we might be closing on the bottom.

The US$ is way overbought and EuroDollar short squeeze will end and market will return to fundamentals you want it or not.

Don't worry if you are long FXE because when US$ is going to reverse it is going as sharp as when it went up.

Europe's turn to go through credit crunch should weaken dollar short-term despite US rescue package.

As the dollar strengthens against the Euro this should drop.

Five plus years is a long time on the Euro being dominant, but it has a lot of appeal.

The dollar has been falling like boxers who fought Mike Tyson before he was old enough to drink. Right now I wouldn’t bet on Mike Tyson, and wouldn’t bet on the Euro either. It seems we may have a perfect storm ahead, and a better way to play the oil bubble. It is very interesting how things have gone over the years, as major changes in the market have changed the way investors have and will play it. Over the last year oil has had a parabolic move upward and looking at its trading from $131 to $139 a barrel, it has looked to have topped out a couple weeks ago. It seems the traders could smell it. The change in momentum beginning with an investigation into speculators pushing the price of oil up and nothing gets politicians moving like constituents running low on disposable income (its about the only thing that gets a politician moving). When this didn’t work there was rhetoric about how the price of oil was inflated and it had nothing to do with supply and demand. Some blame ETFs such as OIL and USO, others blame speculators, I believe that most of the problem is the race between the US and China to fill their strategic oil reserves and now the US has backed off. Since this and OPEC’s words didn’t bring the price down they decided to start pumping an extra 200,000 barrels a day next month. This is not the key to getting everyone out of oil bull mode, but it was the language used. Farhan Haq, spokesman for Ban Ki-moon, stated that he was told Ali al-Naimi said that production would increase 200,000 barrels and that “the King believes that the current oil prices are abnormally high, and he is ready to restore prices to their appropriate levels.”

A move downward in oil should be expected as not too long ago the price of oil had its largest one day dollar move ever. That was a point where speculation should have been made with respect to a bearish oil move. The Euro will be adversely affected as a decrease in oil price will inflate the dollar. The dollar will strengthen as we pay less to import oil and thus decrease the trade deficit. The dollar has been rallying for a while as I believe the market believed the dollar had bottomed. OPEC stated that the price of oil must be brought down because higher prices will lower demand and hurt OPEC’s market. I think the statement was true, but there is another reason that they are backing a lower oil price. Ali al-Naimi stated last week that increasing production would do nothing in reducing the price of oil. Also, even with less demand, oil at a higher price helps OPEC. The reason I believe that they increased production was the weak dollar. Oil producing nations have bought many dollars as an investment, but also have many emerging markets such as China. These investments are in jeopardy as countries have been skeptical of increased investment as they have seen their own currency growth surpassed by losses in the US currency. If this skepticism turns into a flight from the dollar we could see a tremendous drop as investors all over the world try to release their positions. It is not a worry that the dollar is weak, as it has been for sometime, but there needs to be some assurance that it will rebound at some point. There is no problem with the US working from a deficit as the rest of the world saves as long as this debt is bought back at some point as it was done during the Clinton years.

OPEC’s move to protect the dollar will increase investment and push it higher. This is not the only thing that will push the Euro downward. Europe has seen a major move in their real estate markets over the past few years. This move has been likened to a mini US bubble as they have the same problems as the US only on a smaller scale. This along with Europe’s unwillingness to cut rates and lower chances of inflation could cut decrease their growth much more than that of the US going forward. All of this makes me quite bearish on the Euro going forward as the US dollar appreciates in the coming years.

European economy is slowing, Next US president will be far more fiscally conservative. US Dollar will again be a safe haven.

Fellow fools have given a decent reprise of the economics; I can only add that some analysts estimate the EURO is over-priced by about 20%. Highlighting what has already been said here, Ben's signal that inflation is a bigger concern than a slowdown suggests an upcoming rate hike, probably before the year is up: that would be bearish for this EFT.

The Euro is a good balance against the falling dollar. As the US continues to maintain a current account deficit, it seems the dollar should continue to weaken which reduces the value of American stocks.

This stock acts as a stable hedge that will increase when the market falls.

As the credit panic starts to wane, I think there will be a recovery for the USD -- not all the way back to where it was by any stretch of the imagination, but maybe the 140s or even 130s.

We are loosing the battle on a strong dollar so exptect the euro to continue to gain against us. Last August I told a friend it would hit $2.00 by the end of 08. I still think that if not more...

What happens when Europe cuts their interest rates?

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/credit-crunch-puts-hurt-uk/story.aspx?guid=%7B3EE74AD0%2D4B1C%2D43C0%2D8CBC%2DF18E74AFEA5F%7D

The dollar will continue to fall as the Fed lowers the interest rates.

Dollar will continue to fall against major currencies. EU interest rates are rising, hence monthly dividends become more attractive.