iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (AMEX:FXI)
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Classic new paradigm bubble. State capitalism is not a new paradigm and it's not different this time.
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China's goin down, baby, DOWN...
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Bullish on China for a bit.
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Real Estate, One-child social tsunami, pick a problem and China is going to have to deal with it.
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I don't know when China's economy will collapse, but it's going to happen. Many people naively believe that China's FX reserves can shield them from economic catastrophe. They are wrong! Those reserves would be useless in a local currency crisis and there are liabilities against them. According to Chanos, the banks could be holding more debt that their entire FX reserves are worth. In addition, they cannot sell the US treasuries without strengthening their currency, which would destroy their manufacturing sector. They are essentially stuck in a dollar trap, just like Japan was in the 80s. Helicopter Ben can bring them to their knees with another couple rounds of QE! China is in deep trouble!
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Chinese growth.
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Currency goes up, China goes down.
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http://www.fool.com/investing/international/2011/02/23/our-top-short-idea.aspx
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Motley Fool Says so.
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Inverted yield curve in China might mean a recession is coming.
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Very heavy on Chinese financials, which have tons of horrible loans. Chinese cooking books.
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Stock has been languishing recently, but I believe it is now poised to resume a healthy upward trend
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New buy recommendation of the Oxford Club, saying "A historic opportunity is developing there" (in China).
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China overplayed and bubbly
the hedge fund shall SHORT!
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This is one of five country specific ETF's that I bought back in mid 2009 (fxi, ewy, ewz, inp, & tur). Now with experts on China talking about the need for an appreciating Yuan, interest rate hikes on the horizon, talks of increasing taxes on real estate to cool a red hot housing market that is quickly appreciating, you might say "woah....time to take a step back". Not me. Consumer confidence is rising thgoughout Asia and with China supplying an ever increasing amount of products to countries like S. Korea, Japan, USA, etc. the recent downturn we saw in manufacturing there is just a blip. The middle class is growing quite fast in China as well. Along with that new middle class comes increased domestic sales of food, clothing, entertainment, electronics, etc. I'm thinking that these steps won't be near enough to cool a red hot economy. Macro fundamentals are fairly sound. Leadership is quite smart and has kept China growing when the rest of the world was contracting. These policies,imho, are just to keep growth from reaching 10%+ in the coming years. Also, let's not forget the whole green movement that is going to be sweeping the world over the next ten years. China is on the forefront of green tech. I'm happy to buy in again at these levels as I'm fairly confident that China will outperform the S&P over the next five years. Some people say they are in a bubble...if they are then the bubble is just beginning. I'm happy to ride it for quite a while....but I will be keeping an eye on this one a little more closely than say something like Canada. :D
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China is going to jump in 2010
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Dollar Up
Yen Down
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Dollar crash
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China will lead the emerging markets and easily outpace the S&P 500.
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