CurrencyShares Japanese Yen Trust (AMEX:FXY)

Japan as a country and Japanese companies are losing their economic competitiveness. After decades of trade surpluses, Japan recently had a trade deficit; and the changes seem to be more structural than cyclical. For more info:
http://www.moneyandmarkets.com/why-the-yen-is-set-to-weaken-48844

Unsustainable debt burden. Waiting to go BOOM

One of many currencies I have recently made an underperform call on.

If a currency outperforms the s&p for an extended period of time with this little leverage, it will be the new "American dollar" from a new global powerhouse with the military, economic conditions, tax base, stability, and political will similar to the U.S. China is my vote for the future global safehouse, but I can't see global investors trusting their capital with a communist regime. The consensus seems to be that the dollar will be slowly replaced by a basket of stable currencies, and as such, the S&P should outperform these currencies in the long run.

--Wh1sp

Alternative to T-bills/safe haven (EWP pick, SS choice for preferred currency).

Short Yen currency trade

Get it before it's down for the count.

tracking my hedges

The dollar is a complete joke. Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain. Go do volunteer work and everything will be ok! Savings rate: negligible. Parasite class: enormous. Plan to deal will the problem: laughable. Sell when the Yen hits 85.

Yen is one of the better fiat currencies.

I predict that dollar will fall against japanese yen due to rising infaltion

This might have been a great play three months ago but I think this trend may not be your friend. Bearish sentiment is strong and fear is palpable. In my humble opinion, a recession is surely to come if it isn't already here and I think it is dangerous to be moving into investments that move inversely to the S&P 500. ETF SDS (which appreciates inversely to the S&P) is selling for around $100! I bought my SDS around $45. and sold $85 calls expiring in December 2008.

Meanwhile, Warren Buffet is buying his favorite stocks. I believe this is a time to buy the U.S. stocks you've always wanted to own but couldn't buy because they were too expensive.

Discount brokerages are offering free trades to new investors to increase their equity and if you don't have enough money to buy 100 share round lots you can buy 10, 20, 30 shares of a dividend producing company like G.E. without paying a commission (Uncle Warren purchased lots of G.E. around $24.). Of course he has a deal where he can't lose but G.E. is such a diversified company it is hard to believe they will NOT profit from either a Democratic or Republican administration.

I believe the U.S. market is way oversold and when my grocery clerk tells me he lost money and sold all his stocks I take that to be a signal to buy. Wells Fargo offers 100 free equity trades a year if you have a PMA account. That might be an excellent vehicle for us folks who can only afford to buy small numbers of shares at at time. I would be a buyer of the S&P 500 (SPY) at these levels.

If lending in the U.S. loosens I believe investors should be buyers in best of breed home builders. I am buying Pulte Home on dips (symbol PHM). Pulte is in a unique position to profit from a housing recovery and an aging baby booming generation. Pulte owns Del Webb Active Living Communities for us aging hippies who refuse to "Go gently into that goodnight." Seniors are selling their equity rich homes and purchasing Pulte Del Webb community homes free and clear.

Afraid of an individual company stock? You can buy the home building sector by buying XHB, the ETF for the industry. It is cheap in the low teens.

Asia, and Japan, in particular, since we are taliking about Japan, are doing just fine, thank you, in comparision to the U.S.

Japan and the Yen are positioned to really take advantage of the weak dollar and US economy.

NTMF

Primarily the growing dispairity of interest rates. Japan wil likely increase their rates, while the US has little choice but to lower theirs.

I think it will outperform the S&P for a few months, but I don't see it lasting long. Once the government buys up the defaulted mortgages, the market will stabilize, and be able to offer a return to greatness. It is just my opinion, but I believe it to be the last piece of the puzzle.

I believe the current economic rescue packages are going to inflate the dollar big time. I vote for the Yen!

Techinal and fundamentally,

FXY shdreach 110USd before end 2009

Japan Bull Market Checklist
Strong Currency...check
Low Exposure to Sub-Prime...check
High savings rate..check
Banks flushed with cash..check
Ability to buy distressed U.S assets..check
Deflationary economy showing sings of ending...check
Japan market ready for takeoff!!