Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. (NASDAQ:GMCR)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

The Company together with its subsidiaries is engaged in the specialty coffee industry.

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Member Avatar andrewtraylor (39.17) Submitted: 8/6/2015 4:00:33 PM : Underperform Start Price: $53.21 GMCR Score: -11.86

Very very bad management.

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Member Avatar darkbite (92.84) Submitted: 8/6/2015 1:21:48 PM : Outperform Start Price: $53.67 GMCR Score: +11.02

rebound just slightly, over reaction today

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Member Avatar JF125780 (22.37) Submitted: 8/6/2015 11:14:06 AM : Outperform Start Price: $53.41 GMCR Score: +11.77

GMCR is buying back 1 billion dollars of their stock over a 2 year period.

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Member Avatar TSIF (99.97) Submitted: 8/6/2015 10:42:00 AM : Outperform Start Price: $52.56 GMCR Score: +13.65

I haven't been a fan of Keurig GMCR since it started spiking several years ago. Those who rode it may have done well for awhile if they didn't get greedy, but the only time you can stay that far ahead of valuation that is contingent on continued large increases in growth is to have a moat. I don't think their business model is broken so much as some are saying this morning, I think it's the improved economy.......bad economy, make your own coffee, good economy stop and buy it at the increasing locations. McDonald's and quick stop stations took in the low end. Keurig pods are too expensive, and people get lazy stocking them.

Overall, I try not to get mixed up with a company in a large share price change during earnings for a few days. The shorts need to cover, and that can keep the price up. Still, the bad earnings, if they are a bottom, would give this one a fair valuation of $45-55. If earnings get worse then there is more room for a drop. I don't think all the home brewers are going to go away, so I'll take a chance that this may be overdone, though that is generally a bad bet until a few days pass.

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Member Avatar kkconway (99.30) Submitted: 7/16/2015 1:29:10 PM : Outperform Start Price: $70.69 GMCR Score: -12.34

The knife has fallen for some time now. Support gathering and now the marketing dept needs to sell more machines, which I think they will do, so finally the bears will capitulate and hibernate elsewhere.

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Member Avatar ehensim1 (99.66) Submitted: 6/5/2015 12:25:29 PM : Outperform Start Price: $85.78 GMCR Score: -27.19

Trying to catch a falling knife. Value has come back to Earth and I think it's a decent outperform pick for the short term.

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Member Avatar ELPastor (40.75) Submitted: 5/20/2015 2:58:51 PM : Outperform Start Price: $89.33 GMCR Score: -28.13

Sooner or later, everyone is going to give up on brewing coffee by the pot and go for the convenience of the K cups.

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Member Avatar bartlettmi (78.21) Submitted: 4/22/2015 2:00:20 PM : Outperform Start Price: $112.63 GMCR Score: -42.20

Playing the inevitable pop in earnings... I waited less than 2 days to replace my broken Keurig Machine!

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Member Avatar AdamGalas (< 20) Submitted: 3/3/2015 12:58:45 AM : Outperform Start Price: $129.11 GMCR Score: -48.10

A Grand Adventure Dividend Holding:

http://boards.fool.com/the-grand-adventure-121197.aspx

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Member Avatar Dreadnought (45.52) Submitted: 2/28/2015 12:22:21 PM : Outperform Start Price: $127.11 GMCR Score: -47.73

The color of the company logo is green, but's no monster of an equity since it's fundamentals are sound. On a side note, Berkshire could purchase shares of this equity as an interesting way to gain hidden KO exposure. We'll thought out dreadnaught.

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Member Avatar ebigmac (< 20) Submitted: 2/4/2015 2:08:14 PM : Outperform Start Price: $124.15 GMCR Score: -49.56

With the "give away" pricing of their Keurig 2.0 models with DRM, a lot of people will buy them and then learn that the default only uses Keurig K Cups. While there are a number of work arounds on You Tube, I'm guessing that most will take the easy route and just buy Keurig certified K Cups

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Member Avatar benyboy (< 20) Submitted: 1/16/2015 9:57:58 AM : Outperform Start Price: $127.72 GMCR Score: -53.29

cramer

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Member Avatar steveraider (< 20) Submitted: 12/6/2014 8:42:43 PM : Underperform Start Price: $132.66 GMCR Score: +50.99

The K cup has run it's course.

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Member Avatar tiobueno (99.36) Submitted: 5/7/2014 11:10:15 AM : Outperform Start Price: $90.14 GMCR Score: -41.48

Hedging

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Member Avatar runningrealtor (30.54) Submitted: 2/21/2014 4:39:09 PM : Outperform Start Price: $121.71 GMCR Score: -58.94

Coke just bought in.
no debt

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Member Avatar BobGeissler (< 20) Submitted: 2/18/2014 12:45:42 PM : Outperform Start Price: $117.10 GMCR Score: -57.09

Their coffee makers have revolutionized coffee making for working people. The little coffee packets will be a big recurring item. I have one - I love it!

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Member Avatar WhatThe (< 20) Submitted: 2/13/2014 10:36:08 PM : Underperform Start Price: $119.04 GMCR Score: +58.74

Coca Cola is buying a 10% stake of the company in newly issued shares (dilution) for $75, so clearly we should be excited to buy in at $120.

And being able to make a coke at home, does it get any better? I've always liked soda, but I hate the inconvenience of going to the fridge and opening up a can. If I could just go to the pantry and pop a k-cup into a machine on my counter instead, my soda consumption would probably increase ten-fold. Of course I would be willing to pay $200 for a machine that saves me from the current headaches of taking a can out of the fridge. This new machine will also be great for filling in that unsightly extra counter space I was just complaining about the other day.

Seriously, this is one of those cases where I think Mr. Market is a little too exuberant. While I think the Coke deal is good for both companies, I haven't seen anything over the last week that would make me think this company is now worth 50% more. In another quarter or two I suspect reality will set in and people will realize there is nothing here that justifies GMCR's current valuation (in my opinion - clearly others disagree).

Remember this Keurig Cold machine hasn't even been made yet, and Americans are drinking less soda for health reasons, not because they can't make it in their own home. In my opinion, part of SodaStream's value prop (to people that actually bought it versus those that just received it as a Christmas gift) is the ability to make a "healthier" soda than Coke or Pepsi. The drinks you can make with SodaStream have significantly less sugar than standard soft drinks. At least that was my understanding when I watched the demonstration in the department store, but I'm not a huge soda drinker.

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Member Avatar karlsmq (< 20) Submitted: 2/7/2014 6:32:00 PM : Outperform Start Price: $106.12 GMCR Score: -54.90

ITS DEAL WITH COKE IS A GAME CHANGER. I EXPECT REVENUE TO GO THROUGH THE ROOF IN THE YEARS AHEAD, MOST ANALYSTS HAVE NOT REALIZED HOW BIG A DEAL THIS IS ,IT IS HUGE FOR GREEN MOUNTAIN.

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Member Avatar grankh (76.88) Submitted: 2/7/2014 10:01:45 AM : Outperform Start Price: $64.70 GMCR Score: -26.58

This is a real-life holding of mine through my investment club.

Sales grew 14% last year, and EPS grew 39%. The pre-tax profit margin has been growing for the past 3 years, and the earned-on-equity has been growing for the past 2 years. The debt-to-equity has been falling for 3 years, and ended 2013 at just 9%, which is pretty good. The current P/E is above its historic averages, but below the highs of 4 of the last 5 years, so a little stretched in valuation, but not horribly so. The huge jump on 2/6/2014 stretched the valuation, so we will have to see if the exuberance is warranted over the signing of a cooperation agreement with Coke. The PEG ratio is a low 0.66. The company does not pay a dividend.

Even with the large jump in the stock price, I am still hoping for good things from GMCR. I think that the stock could potentially return me 22% on an annual compound basis over the next several years. That would mean I could double my investment in less than 4 years. Here's hoping the growth expectations play out for me.

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Member Avatar wolfman225 (69.73) Submitted: 2/6/2014 10:01:13 AM : Outperform Start Price: $102.30 GMCR Score: -54.85

The announcement of the partnership with Coca-Cola to produce a home soda system is potentially huge and is likely to undercut Sodastream's market share. The vast reach and marketing expertise of Coke will be hard for established home soda machine companies to match.

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