Keurig Green Mountain, Inc. (NASDAQ:GMCR)

CAPS Rating: 2 out of 5

The Company together with its subsidiaries is engaged in the specialty coffee industry.

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Member Avatar Ooker (65.16) Submitted: 4/15/2014 3:20:51 PM : Underperform Start Price: $110.68 GMCR Score: +15.78

I like GMCR as a company and product, but don't use it. They are killing it in market share right now. Will they keep that up? Don't know, but they'll be alright for a while.

Short term, the stock has a gap to fill between 80 and 120...it's about halfway there.

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Member Avatar kf9211 (< 20) Submitted: 4/15/2014 1:49:40 PM : Underperform Start Price: $96.60 GMCR Score: +5.20

Got overheated after Coke deal

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Member Avatar mlarms (47.91) Submitted: 4/4/2014 10:32:40 PM : Underperform Start Price: $102.48 GMCR Score: +9.25

overvalued

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Member Avatar runningrealtor (< 20) Submitted: 2/21/2014 4:39:09 PM : Outperform Start Price: $123.20 GMCR Score: -25.59

Coke just bought in.
no debt

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Member Avatar BobGeissler (< 20) Submitted: 2/18/2014 12:45:42 PM : Outperform Start Price: $118.54 GMCR Score: -22.54

Their coffee makers have revolutionized coffee making for working people. The little coffee packets will be a big recurring item. I have one - I love it!

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Member Avatar WhatThe (< 20) Submitted: 2/13/2014 10:36:08 PM : Underperform Start Price: $120.50 GMCR Score: +24.68

Coca Cola is buying a 10% stake of the company in newly issued shares (dilution) for $75, so clearly we should be excited to buy in at $120.

And being able to make a coke at home, does it get any better? I've always liked soda, but I hate the inconvenience of going to the fridge and opening up a can. If I could just go to the pantry and pop a k-cup into a machine on my counter instead, my soda consumption would probably increase ten-fold. Of course I would be willing to pay $200 for a machine that saves me from the current headaches of taking a can out of the fridge. This new machine will also be great for filling in that unsightly extra counter space I was just complaining about the other day.

Seriously, this is one of those cases where I think Mr. Market is a little too exuberant. While I think the Coke deal is good for both companies, I haven't seen anything over the last week that would make me think this company is now worth 50% more. In another quarter or two I suspect reality will set in and people will realize there is nothing here that justifies GMCR's current valuation (in my opinion - clearly others disagree).

Remember this Keurig Cold machine hasn't even been made yet, and Americans are drinking less soda for health reasons, not because they can't make it in their own home. In my opinion, part of SodaStream's value prop (to people that actually bought it versus those that just received it as a Christmas gift) is the ability to make a "healthier" soda than Coke or Pepsi. The drinks you can make with SodaStream have significantly less sugar than standard soft drinks. At least that was my understanding when I watched the demonstration in the department store, but I'm not a huge soda drinker.

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Member Avatar Truth2Power (40.87) Submitted: 2/13/2014 7:12:20 PM : Underperform Start Price: $120.50 GMCR Score: +24.68

Yes, the Coke deal is big for this company. But the product won't even hit shelves until 2015. I think the valuation is overblown at this point.

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Member Avatar karlsmq (< 20) Submitted: 2/7/2014 6:32:00 PM : Outperform Start Price: $107.43 GMCR Score: -16.97

ITS DEAL WITH COKE IS A GAME CHANGER. I EXPECT REVENUE TO GO THROUGH THE ROOF IN THE YEARS AHEAD, MOST ANALYSTS HAVE NOT REALIZED HOW BIG A DEAL THIS IS ,IT IS HUGE FOR GREEN MOUNTAIN.

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Member Avatar dwayneshimizu (56.99) Submitted: 2/7/2014 6:01:41 PM : Underperform Start Price: $107.58 GMCR Score: +17.16

Coffee is a given for a lot of people, but I think it will come back to a price of 85.00.

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Member Avatar elvisbeatlesfan (82.35) Submitted: 2/7/2014 1:12:45 PM : Outperform Start Price: $94.65 GMCR Score: -3.82

KO now owns 10% of shares

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Member Avatar grankh (88.35) Submitted: 2/7/2014 10:01:45 AM : Outperform Start Price: $65.50 GMCR Score: +34.06

This is a real-life holding of mine through my investment club.

Sales grew 14% last year, and EPS grew 39%. The pre-tax profit margin has been growing for the past 3 years, and the earned-on-equity has been growing for the past 2 years. The debt-to-equity has been falling for 3 years, and ended 2013 at just 9%, which is pretty good. The current P/E is above its historic averages, but below the highs of 4 of the last 5 years, so a little stretched in valuation, but not horribly so. The huge jump on 2/6/2014 stretched the valuation, so we will have to see if the exuberance is warranted over the signing of a cooperation agreement with Coke. The PEG ratio is a low 0.66. The company does not pay a dividend.

Even with the large jump in the stock price, I am still hoping for good things from GMCR. I think that the stock could potentially return me 22% on an annual compound basis over the next several years. That would mean I could double my investment in less than 4 years. Here's hoping the growth expectations play out for me.

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Member Avatar dcg014 (< 20) Submitted: 2/6/2014 2:03:24 PM : Outperform Start Price: $104.72 GMCR Score: -16.31

- Coca-Cola announces 10% stake (2/6/14) and anncounces new "cold" models coming in FY15.
- 5-year PEG = 1.17
- YOY Revenue Growth = 10.6%
- EBITDA aproaching $1B
- Cash = $260.09M to Debt = $256.98M

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Member Avatar wolfman225 (70.12) Submitted: 2/6/2014 10:01:13 AM : Outperform Start Price: $103.55 GMCR Score: -15.55

The announcement of the partnership with Coca-Cola to produce a home soda system is potentially huge and is likely to undercut Sodastream's market share. The vast reach and marketing expertise of Coke will be hard for established home soda machine companies to match.

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Member Avatar moonlightsail (25.73) Submitted: 2/6/2014 9:39:28 AM : Outperform Start Price: $102.08 GMCR Score: -14.53

Coke just bought a 10% position.

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Member Avatar cstastny (40.43) Submitted: 2/5/2014 6:26:54 PM : Outperform Start Price: $109.75 GMCR Score: -21.28

Coca Cola deal

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Member Avatar MitchBoxx (< 20) Submitted: 1/31/2014 1:15:38 PM : Outperform Start Price: $80.50 GMCR Score: +11.49

I feel that 80% of households will own Keurig coffee maker within 5 years and with this coffee maker they will try the variety of Green mountain coffees. The Mr.Coffees, Braun, Black & Decker coffee makers will fall to the wayside.

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Member Avatar mungania (70.51) Submitted: 1/28/2014 12:39:48 AM : Outperform Start Price: $76.00 GMCR Score: +18.37

drink coffee yall

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Member Avatar NYCKO (37.74) Submitted: 1/13/2014 4:44:53 PM : Outperform Start Price: $79.14 GMCR Score: +15.84

Keurig is dominant in home and in office machine. Great alternative to Starbucks and people all over the world love coffee.

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Member Avatar lepera347 (70.56) Submitted: 1/9/2014 11:16:05 AM : Outperform Start Price: $79.29 GMCR Score: +16.04

You're not gonna see the next generation of coffee drinkers buying old fashioned coffee pots anytime soon

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Member Avatar drose20 (< 20) Submitted: 12/26/2013 8:02:25 AM : Outperform Start Price: $34.23 GMCR Score: +122.06

Continued growth in K-Cups will be a growth opportunity

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