The Gap, Inc. (NYSE:GPS)
A global specialty retailer operating retail & outlet stores selling casual apparel, accessories, and personal care products for men, women & children under the Gap, Old Navy, Banana Republic, and Piperlime brands.
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Recs
The Gap was massively successful in its heyday (long past) when the clothes-horse generation (15-25 year olds) found their merchandise to be cool, relevant and worth buying repeatedly. Ask any 15-25 year old today what they think of the Gap and they'll tell you "booooring". The Gap still has customers, but not the high-volume masses that drove them to their peaks of the past. A past they will never revisit.
Recs
Gap rose 3% today alone, based on Morgan Stanley's upgrade it would appear. They think Gap is winning back customers. But same-store sales have been trending downward. That can't be good for the long term. And I just don't see them becoming way popular again with all the retail clothing competition out there right now. I really don't see how the recent upsurge in the stock price can last.
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Stock seems to have bottomed out. Fundamentals should improve with recent changes. Pure Value play
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Gap has had some trouble figuring out who they are, since they seem bored by their predictable khakis and jeans. A re-focus on the basics might spark the flagship brand, but I'm more excited by the Old Navy and Forth & Towne brands. Old Navy is reliable and cheap for trendy items, along with sturdy denims in a huge range of styles & sizes. Forth & Towne, a new Gap brand, offers Nordstrom-style service and boutique store design in mall stores, with stylish work-appropriate pieces for women of all sizes (no plus-size racks here with different designs). As Forth & Towne shops open over the next few years, they will compete with Chico's, Coldwater Creek, Talbots, J. Jill, and other mall stores with a boutique vibe, as well as with the customer-focused anchor stores.
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Gap still doesn't get it and A&F and American Eagle do. They've had serious issues since their main designer left for J Crew and they haven't found the magic they had yet.
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Solid company, a bit of trouble, but still a huge cash generation machine. Very likely to outperform the rest of the market in the years to come.
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Short the Gap "GPS" from here. EPS are to high for this company, although tech look good on the company. Short on some rallys. EPS oct/6th look for the estimates to fall short of the street!!
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I've waited and waited for Gap to fall back into favor, and I think its best days are behind it.
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Oh, Gap. I love your jeans. But very little else about your company, both clothing-wise and finance-wise.
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This is another tough one... management is definitely in turnaround mode and they seem to have a high degree of confidence in the changes that go full throttle in the fall season. How will these changes to its merchandise, advertising, and store layouts actually play out with customers? That remains to be seen, but early indicators using August numbers suggest that customers are coming back to Gap much slower than anticipated. Gap has been an underperformer for years now and until proven otherwise, my bet is that it continues to be a dud.
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The refurb of the old stores in underway and the key people are in place. A real bargain today.
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All the girls between 15 and 35 that I know want to buy at these stores. They seem to know their market well.
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Time to re-up with my underperform call. Gap simply is not turning around, and their results will not satisfy shareholders or analysts. Unless something major happens towards a turnaround over the next six months or so, I see Gap shares at $14 and less. If a retailer lowers guidance for the holiday season (which is what Gap has done), it isn't a good sign of what is going on with the company.
Recs
Old Navy and Gap stores still have a loyal following with the consumer...the teens (with their changing likes and dislikes) killed them but they will come back.
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Gap seems committed to improving its merchandise in Old Navy and Gap stores, and Banana Republic and its online division continue to show strength. However, it is an uphill battle with competition from companies like American Apparel against Gap's Old Navy stores. Gap needs some consistency in its product line and continued store revamp efforts to really win back customers. It also needs to continue to look at cost-savings throughout its supply chain to maintain a competitive edge.
Recs
Gap's struggles are significant, yet it seems that the stock price is buoyed up by hope that it can yet turn around. Yet with continually worsening fundamentals, it has only fallen about 20% from its 2005 range around $21. For this stock to outperform the market it will take significant changes - changes that are unlikely to materialize or materially affect the stock in the next year.
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Years of chasing seasonal fashions leaves Gap bland and brand-less. Say what you will about visionary leaders over, the stock will stumble until management realizes it must rally around basics.
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