Elements MLCX Grains Index (AMEX:GRU)

PetitMartinique (89.73) Submitted: 12/23/2011 2:57:04 AM : Start Price: $5.78 GRU Score: -4.89

Suppose to have heavy wheat exposure. My favorite of the grains since it seems to have the least cheerleaders at the moment.

secretbonus (33.43) Submitted: 7/12/2011 3:22:44 PM : Start Price: $6.83 GRU Score: -12.81

Chosen because of it's overweight exposure to wheat of 45% allocation. 7 year drought cycle doesn't peak until sometime in 2014. Sunspot activity is set to increase until sometime in 2012 or 2013 I think, increased solar activity means "global warming" although it certainly isn't caused by man. The warming cycle means more droughts or increased intensity of the droughts due to high intensity of the heat. 7 years of harvest and that means it's going to be harder to grow food. Wheat specifically is chosen because of seasonality...
http://www.seasonalcharts.com/future_farmprodukte_wheat.html
You may not believe in "timing" but seasonality has correlation based on fundamentals. For example, as you approach the spring and summer prices get affordable because conditions for growing in the northern hemisphere become more favorable. However, as you approach from mid summer into the fall, supply becomes more scarce. If correlation proves correct, scaling back some of your position around October seems to make sense....
Also, aside from the seasonal cycle there is a 7 year cycle that has been around since the beginning of time as far as we can tell.

Genesis 41
:53 And the seven years of plenteousness,
that was in the land of Egypt,
were ended.
:54 And the seven years of dearth began to come,
according as Joseph had said:
and the dearth was in all lands;
but in all the land of Egypt there was bread.
:55 And when all the land of Egypt was famished,
the people cried to Pharaoh for bread:
and Pharaoh said unto all the Egyptians,
Go unto Joseph; what he saith to you, do.
:56 And the famine was over all the face of the earth:
And Joseph opened all the storehouses,
and sold unto the Egyptians;
and the famine waxed sore in the land of Egypt.
:57 And all countries came into Egypt to Joseph for to buy corn;
because that the famine was so sore in all lands.

This cycle has always existed, we are only about 4 years into it. So buy corn so that when all of the land comes to you for it, you can sell it at higher prices. Farmland is also a good investment for those reasons.

lntwo (27.66) Submitted: 1/12/2011 11:11:55 PM : Start Price: $7.43 GRU Score: -22.62

Total speculation but Arctic ice retreat will have profound effects on Northern Hemisphere food production. nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/index.html

irvingfisher (31.36) Submitted: 8/2/2010 8:28:50 PM : Start Price: $5.67 GRU Score: -12.22

bad weather & locusts are the reasons this ETN is shooting up right now. However, in the medium term, there is the problem of wheat rust, which is making a comeback. Wheat crop yields will drop. (look up in the economist for an article on wheat rust.)
watch out, this thing is volatile.

Option1307 (29.86) Submitted: 3/22/2010 7:05:45 PM : Start Price: $4.99 GRU Score: +4.88

I am fairly confident that this will significantly outperform the S&P 500 over the next decade. I love agriculture and feel that every investor should have a lest some exposure to the sector going forward. People have to eat, and with an ever growing population this will only intensify as we go forward. Umm, food!

See my blog here for more insight: http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/ViewPost.aspx?bpid=329380&t=01009422382365168345

Many people have pointed out, and rightfully so that this is an ETN, not to be confused with and ETF. ETN's do not physically hold/link/etc. to the underlying commodity and thus there is some fear that if the commodity or fund starts tanking, things could get ugly fast and investors might be left holding the bag. While I agree this is theoretically possible and is certainly a risk, IMO this specific fund is essentially immune from such a possible scenario b/c of the following:

1) This is a Jim Rogers Fund. There is no way he is going to let a fund with his name directly in part of the title go under. Not happening.

2) This is an ELEMENTS Fund. Essentially this is backed by the Swedish government. Again, there is no way Sweden is going to let something with their name on it go under.

Solterran (23.58) Submitted: 1/1/2010 9:39:46 PM : Start Price: $5.77 GRU Score: -14.20

input costs will increase for grains

spundun (88.33) Submitted: 9/2/2009 5:26:48 PM : Start Price: $5.07 GRU Score: -14.55

Eventually inflation, short term industrial/consumer recession.

mustbepatient (42.01) Submitted: 7/14/2009 12:31:16 PM : Start Price: $5.46 GRU Score: -38.05

GRU is a method to get exposure to wheat.

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-sci-wheat-rust14-2009jun14,0,1751268.story?track=rss