Hansen Natural Corp (HANS)
Develops, markets, sells & distributes alternative beverage category natural sodas, fruit juices, energy drinks, fruit juice smoothies & functional drinks, non-carbonated iced teas, lemonades, juice cocktails & children's multi-vitamin juice drinks.
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Overvalued.
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Complexity and the flora & fauna metaphor.
Did I explain that in my Ball Co pick? Basically, this Monster is not a keystone species here.
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Hansen has a good high priced line of consumables that are, more or less depending on the product, largely unnecessary in the marketplace. This market is still going down. For example; we are going to be feeling the consumer ramifications of last months largest layoff in years about 3-6 months from now, the car market is on the skids going deeper, (and in denial of it), more layoffs are coming in all sectors, and the economy is clearly in a fast moving downward spiral, and has been gaining momentium since 9/11. Plus the G will have to start paying baby boomers Medicare in 2 years, and S.S. in 3. The number retireing are staggering. S.S. was legally set up as the largest Ponzi scheme of all time. Now, Can you give me one reason the economy will pick up? For these reasons I will short Hansen. Please give me a reason(s) I shouldn't short Hansen. Please give me a reason(s) the economy will pick up?
Corkbouy
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I love monster energy and made a lot of money in real life on the long side of this one, but this has not been going down with the market as it should. Great company, but it is artificially high from the massive short position that was triple the size just 4 months ago!
Date Short avg vol days to cover
11/14/2008 11,700,376 1,458,828 8.020394
10/31/2008 12,167,224 1,782,817 6.824718
10/15/2008 16,312,689 2,281,033 7.151448
9/30/2008 23,281,664 4,249,698 5.478428
9/15/2008 28,328,270 2,873,205 9.859467
8/29/2008 29,600,414 2,042,749 14.490480
8/15/2008 29,062,363 5,469,276 5.313750
7/31/2008 31,783,558 2,525,544 12.584836
7/15/2008 29,981,487 3,932,270 7.624473
So it is clear that 20 million shares have been covered in this massive deleveraging/capital reclamation event..
Recs
HANS is a good long term buy. Right now though, with how the economy is, people are looking for cheap, not natural. I say buy and hold this one for long term, as the price is right. But in the short term, this one is going to fall, under performing the S&P by 5-10%. That doesn't mean you shouldn't buy though. Just keep it for a while, this is a good company that will show good profit in the long term.
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LOW AT THIS TIME HAS GROWTH POTENTIAL
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This stock is really starting to annoy me. I've never seen a stock with such great numbers (esp. ROIC, EPS/EQ/sales growth) that just isn't performing. Am really starting to think energy drink market is way overrated and consumers don't want to spend extra $$ for "natural soda" A buyout by Coke or Pepsi would be nice - any real news on this front??
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unemployment reduces discretionary spending
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my dog doesn't like sweets this time of year - just gettin' over the holiday gluttony.
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way too overpriced for this monster. Energy drinks are dime a dozen
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This is the peak. People aren't stupid they know when companies are selling drugs legally.
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Too expensive. Needs a dip in pricing.
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Ineviteable product price drop.
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Grew too fast. Too much competition now in this space.
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up to a year maybe even in 3 months. This is a pig with a bad lipstick job!
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Hanson Natural is down over 50% from recent highs. It will continue to go down.
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Give me a break. Haven't you heard of a fad before?
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The momentum of the energy drinks has made this stock still water. Even though sales are up over 100% yeah you read it right. By this time next year the stock will have doubled.
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taking profits
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I think this story is a little long in the tooth to deserve such a lofty P/E ratio.

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