Human Genome Sciences (NASDAQ:HGSI)

I haven't done very well with Human Genome, missing an enormous potential gain on the success of Benlysta in clinical trials and then getting crushed when I thought the stock was oversold after approval. Lets see if I have better luck this time. In 12/11 the stock bottomed at 6.64, which is about where I gave up on my green thumb, and has subsequently risen back to the 9 level.

The rise in share price seems to be predicated on optimistic language from management as well as takeover speculation. However, we already know that the net Benlysta revenue for Q4 will be about 26M, which isn't much of a jump from 7.8M and 18.8M in the preceding quarters. It certainly won't be enough to make much of a dent in the company's huge quarterly losses. A recent 500M debt financing indicates that the company may be digging in for a prolonged period of negative cash flow.

yes to rl

Sales pickup on lupus drugs

There are currently 7300 HGSI shares in my "fund" with break-even of around 13.28 USD. http://caps.fool.com/Blogs/fund-trades/678775.

Close to the low end of its 52 week range and drugs with great commercial appeal in its pipeline.

IMHO: will rebound from the recent drop into the $13.25 range in the next month or two.

Buy the rumor, sell the news.

healing people is good business

Looking for $30 in 2 years

Dendreon screws the pooch on the launch of Provenge, so investors punish HGSI? I'm making a CAPS-only bet that the relationship doesn't translate to the balance sheet.

There is no reason that this company shouldn't outperform over the next several years. They just had an FDA approval on BENLYSTA, their lupus drug, and the sales from that alone should shoot revenues through the roof. Good management and sales outlook

Benlysta Approval coupled with the amazing pipeline of drugs will push HGSI higher

First Lupus Drug Recently Approved by the FDA in 50 years!!!

fda panel vote 13-2. jpm morgan 95% approval on march 10th. lets up two thumbs up...$30 soon

Sorry, Drug does NOT get approved.
ps. this is just a guess so no hate mail :)

One finnger can scatter the shells of nut but it will take them all to gathere them back again.

Avg price target consensus from routers is somewhere around 34 dollars.Thats a good premium from the current 25 dollar price and great return over 12 months.

Most of BIG pharma are shutting down R&D centers (read pfizer) and finding its cheaper to buy or invest in smaller biotechs to do this work is another shift in the industry. This will likely bring some form of M&A to the field in 2011. HGSI will be one of them, at least thats my bet.

Benlysta approval in January 2011

Looks like a great options play. Was at 25.60 prior to FDA extension on their PDUFA, now at 23.89. New PDUFA date is March 10. I put odds of approval at better than 50/50, but picking a strike price is tricky. Apr 2011 30 calls currently trading at 1.10/1.20 look cheap to me give that the stock was over 30 much of the spring and touched it again in Sept. while everyone was waiting for the original PDUFA.