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$12.47 1.67 (15.46%)
10/13/2008 1:09 PM

Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (HLX)

CAPS Rating:
*****

An international offshore energy company that provides development solutions and other key services to the open market as well as to its own reservoirs. Its oil and gas business is a prospect generating, exploration, development and production company.

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What the Community Thinks

Total Members

871 Outperforms
20 Underperforms
 

All-Stars

161 Outperforms
6 Underperforms
 

Wall Street

5 Outperforms
1 Underperforms
 

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Ticker Tags

Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration (126), Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (77), Mid Cap (670), Small Cap (1922), Services (251)
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Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. At A Glance

Current Price: $12.47
Last Trade Time: 10/13/2008 1:09 PM
Open: $11.72
Previous Close: $10.80
Daily Range: $11.10 - $12.47
52-Week Range: $9.85 - $47.35
Volume: 2,726,837
Market Cap: $2.62B
P/E Ratio: 6.98
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Stock Trends

HLX VS S&P 500 (SPY)

HLX 12 month chart vs. S&P

News & Discussion Boards

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Top Bull Pitch

Recs

13

Helix Energy Solutions Group, Inc. (HLX)

Avatar Favorableodds (46.53) Submitted: 3/17/08 2:46 PM

HLX is an aggregation of complementary businesses; finding/developing oil & gas (E&P), and contract servicing for oil and gas producers. The contracting service unit can be divided into shallow and deep water operations (management has deemed the shallow segment non-core going forward).

The market...More

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Recs

0

 (HLX)

Avatar Compunction (83.92) Submitted: 10/13/08 11:35 AM : Outperform Start Price: $16.09 HLX Score: -21.13

This stock is broken for no reason. I see no reason why this stock isn't seeing $35.

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Recs

0

 (HLX)

Avatar CMOCapital (96.43) Submitted: 10/08/08 3:35 PM : Outperform Start Price: $16.40 HLX Score: -21.06

Restructuring

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Recs

0

 (HLX)

Avatar TomFoolNC (79.10) Submitted: 10/07/08 11:42 AM : Outperform Start Price: $18.27 HLX Score: -24.86

GleenLight Capital

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Recs

2

 (HLX)

Avatar ValueArbitrage (76.84) Submitted: 10/02/08 7:34 AM : Outperform Start Price: $36.03 HLX Score: -43.17

HLX is simply to cheap for a (primarily) capital light, competitively advantaged company with above average growth prospects and a long paper trail of earning above average returns for its shareholders.

Reasons for my conviction stem from its ludicrous current undervaluation (based on almost any metric, relative and absolute) as well as the variety of levers management has at its disposal to improve profitability and grow the top and bottom line over the next few years.

For one, HLX is emerging from a heavy investment phase and should hit an inflection point regarding it's free cash generation capabilities at some point over the next year. A few additional levers that mangement may utilize to drive returns over the next few years include...

1. The spin-off or outright sale of its more capital intensive E&P business (in the case of a spin-off I believe both companies would warrant higher valuations as independent pure plays rather than continuing as a combined entitiy).

2. Execution of revenue and margin enhancement strategy. I believe this likely for a variety of reasons, a few of which include...

On the sales side of the equation...

Future sales growth should be achieved through continued growth within its rapidly growing contracting segment. Underlying business drivers here include the addition of 3 new upgraded vessels (during the 4th quarter) with the ability to lay pipe under water. Demand for such vessels is considerable, and likely to only get stronger (at least for awhile). I expect additional top line growth on the E&P side as well. 3 new oil fields are scheduled to come online during the fourth quarter, with full production by the second half of '09 (which should roughly double HLX's current run rate). Higher oil prices and the tight services market should provide a decent tailwind here.

On the margin side of the equation...

Margin expansion should be driven by a combination of increasing asset utilization, reduced costs (less maintence capex), and a mix shift to its faster growing, higher margin business going forward (to name a few).

On the contracting side...the addition of the 3 new upgraded vessels (with enhanced capabilities) should allow HLX to deploy these ships at new, more profitable rates going forward. Considering these vessels are expensive, difficult to replicate assets, as well as HLX's formidable (proprietary) expertise working with these type of assets in the deep water realm...I believe shareholders should benefit from large and rising margins within this segment for the foreseeable future. i.e. I don't expect serious competition to drive down margins and hence returns for quite awhile (I expect the opposite).

Also previous investments in their E&P properties should bolster margins over the near to medium term. With 3 new fields coming online shortly (consider these fields ability to ramp up to full production relatively quickly as well), it doesn't take a genius to realize significant margin expansion within this segment is likely. Due to the natural operating leverage of the E&P business, this segment should begin to drive profitability considerably higher over the next year or so as new production kicks in (as sales increase while fixed and variable costs decrease, causing margins to expand) and profitability explodes.

Lastly, a longer term mix shift to the faster growing, higher margin services segment (currently 70% of revenues) and ongoing improvements in HLX's cost structure should make future growth meaningfully more profitable than what a careful study of historical results would indicate. For instance, Capex for the E&P segment is much larger than capex for HLX's service's segment. Therefore, as management begins to focus their attention more on the growth of the service segment (over time representing more and more of Helix's revenues), capex will grow at a slower and slower rate.

I believe the market is likely to reward any visable improvement on these fronts, which should begin to manifest themselves in relatively short order. Now that Owen Krantz is back at the helm, I believe execution here is likely, as this is a man who historically has consistently underpromised and overdelivered. Why should I expect the future to be any different.

3. Value added capital allocation (paying down debt, buying back stock, etc.). Management has a variety of non-core assets to divest if the price is right, which if monetized would bolster HLX's cash position and increase their flexibility to add value in this area.

The bottom line...

Considering HLX's historical profitability and future outlook, its savvy and shareholder friendly management team, and the positive underlying business dynamics currently underway...this misunderstood and underfollowed company is grossly mispriced. When examined through a normalized margin and profitability assessment, HLX in my opinion is screamingly cheap. Investors who purchase shares at or around today's price should reap outsized risk-adjusted returns of 50-100% over the next 2-3 years

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Recs

0

 (HLX)

Avatar al5ace (47.65) Submitted: 9/25/08 10:28 AM : Outperform Start Price: $26.43 HLX Score: -34.01

Offshore oil services. Lots of value in the businesses and books.

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Wall Street

Results 1 - 6 of 6  

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Member NameMember RatingStart
Date
CallTime FrameStart
Price
Stock
Gain
S&P
Gain
ScorePitch
TrackCapitalOne < 20 03/03/08 Outperform NS $34.97-65.28%-27.77%-37.51
TrackEinhorn 61.50 09/30/07 Outperform NS $42.46-71.41%-36.95%-34.46 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
TrackJohnKeeley 72.73 09/30/07 Outperform NS $42.46-71.41%-36.95%-34.46 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
TrackDreman 87.03 09/30/07 Outperform NS $42.46-71.41%-36.95%-34.46 Toggle the visibility of 60-Second Pitch and replies
TrackScottBleier 75.31 03/31/07 Outperform 3M $37.29-66.56%-32.11%-34.45
TrackJimCramer 82.07 03/17/06 Underperform 3W $35.61-64.98%-26.34%+38.64

Results 1 - 6 of 6  

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