Harvest Natural Resources, Inc. (NYSE:HNR)

CAPS Rating: 3 out of 5

An independent energy company engaged in the acquisition, exploration, development, production and disposition of oil and natural gas properties.

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Member Avatar WPThatcher (< 20) Submitted: 2/3/2014 9:59:48 PM : Outperform Start Price: $4.39 HNR Score: -72.94

Asset sales could cause this stock to double.

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Member Avatar gaaronpaul (< 20) Submitted: 4/4/2013 3:46:14 PM : Outperform Start Price: $2.83 HNR Score: -56.59

Taking a flier here. Very risky, but I don't see how it could possibly be worth much less, even in a bankruptcy. Not accounting for their assets anywhere but Venezuela, and only looking at their 1P reserves, this stock should be worth $11.42 per share (using companies PV10 of VZ 1P of $450MM divided by 39.4MM shares outstanding). If they are truly a going concern, and can only get $0.10 on the $ for the VZ asset, it should still fetch $1.42 per share. I think the market has really oversold this thing, and at today's price it essentially offers a free call option on any kind of upside. Hard to imagine someone out there (hedge fund, big Chinese/Iranian oil company, etc) doesn't make a takeout offer at this price.

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Member Avatar HoldThatWinner (30.82) Submitted: 3/23/2013 12:31:07 AM : Outperform Start Price: $5.61 HNR Score: -99.92

Grabbed ~14,000 shares on the destruction early this week at $3.09 and sold yesterday at $3.82. This was my weekly play.
Not sure about it short term (next few months), but long term I still like it. No Position as of yesterday.

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Member Avatar PhotoPhool (< 20) Submitted: 9/4/2012 4:16:45 PM : Outperform Start Price: $8.75 HNR Score: -123.75

Deal worth $14/share in cash is in the works, awaiting approval from the two major players. While there is always some uncertainty with these deals, completing the deal is to the advantage of all the players.

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Member Avatar usercirct (25.20) Submitted: 7/27/2012 8:53:19 PM : Outperform Start Price: $8.01 HNR Score: -124.37

Depening on this and that. This company could be a good one to watch here in the next few months.

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Member Avatar EllenBrandtPhD (< 20) Submitted: 7/25/2012 7:51:49 PM : Outperform Start Price: $8.00 HNR Score: -127.23

Venezuela asset sale deal virtually certain to go through. Deal came in at THREE TIMES what the Shorts said it would.

When deal is consummated, stock should be at about double its current level- i.e. at $15.. And asset value of entire company now placed by most analysts at a minimum $22 per share.

Shorts have been Distorting on message boards like crazy, trying to think up flimsy reasons the deal will not go through.

That's because they still comprise about 20 percent of the Float and feel cornered and trapped.

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Member Avatar GaddafiDuck (< 20) Submitted: 3/7/2012 12:57:38 PM : Outperform Start Price: $6.31 HNR Score: -119.04

The risk here is whether or not Hugo is going to nationalize his countries oil wells. I'd bet on the status quo for three reasons. 1. Hugo is in bad shape, and not likely to do anything big until his health improves. 2. Venezuela already owns a large share of the wells HNR drills from. 3 Some wells HNR operates were previously declared to be depleted, which most likely means that Venezuela needs foreign technology to get any significant yield from these wells.

Also earnings have stayed above $2 since I started watching this company early last year. With a P/E of 3-4, this is one of the cheapest oil stocks around.

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Member Avatar Beau1700 (39.04) Submitted: 2/7/2012 5:11:59 PM : Outperform Start Price: $7.19 HNR Score: -125.60

natural gas is hot

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Member Avatar smith972 (78.93) Submitted: 12/20/2011 3:17:29 PM : Outperform Start Price: $7.02 HNR Score: -138.45

HNR has gone down too far. A good entry point here at this price. (Dec 2011)

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Member Avatar JPAKolypse86 (< 20) Submitted: 8/19/2011 12:24:54 PM : Outperform Start Price: $8.80 HNR Score: -157.71

Definitely a risk play if i ever saw one. The good: The oil slump, bad cash flow, and disappointing earnings have combined to push the price of HNR under its book value. Current estimates put next years EPS almost doubling over this years estimate.

The Bad: HNR currently operates 6 fields in venezuela. Harvest's 1/3 stake after royalties puts its proven reserves at 61.7 million barrels of oil and 51.1 Billion cubic feet of Nat Gas. The fear is that the current trend of nationalization will continue and that on a whim, Hugo will outright take those fields and shareholders will get nothing. I have a feeling that you want to take the other side of that bet and here's why.

First we don't know how long Hugo will be able to wield absolute power. Venezuela has the highest rate of inflation in Latin America. It's capital has the highest murder rate of any city outside of a war zone on the planet. And as Hugo's health and political monopoly weakens, the coalition of opposition parties grows stronger.

Second Hugo needs HNR more than HNR needs Hugo. Three of the oil fields operated by HNR were abandoned in the 80's (most likely because they were thought to be depleted, but i can't confirm). In the past 20 years, Western drilling companies have been using their technology to breath new life into "depleted" wells (this was a big part of the energy boom in russia after the cold war ended). Venezuela's industry and workforce doesn't have the technology or the expertise to operate the technology to extract the oil and nat gas from these wells themselves. Additionally, HNR only owns a minority stake in these wells (about 1/3 after royalties). I would agree that Hugo is stupid, but even stupid has its limits.

Third, HNR owns wells in North America, Africa, and Asia. And after the recent HK buyout, HNR has been identified as a possible takeover candidate. Analyst estimates put the value of HNR at upwards of $20. This is definitely a much riskier play than HK was, but at $9.50 the upside is also much greater.

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Member Avatar EclecticRecluse (80.31) Submitted: 5/16/2011 7:36:54 AM : Underperform Start Price: $11.44 HNR Score: +137.32

Overestimated Earnings Growth

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Member Avatar HardnoseDotCom (69.21) Submitted: 4/25/2011 1:35:10 PM : Outperform Start Price: $14.11 HNR Score: -140.53

low PEG, strong price uptrend

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Member Avatar LilSpud (< 20) Submitted: 2/22/2011 12:42:52 PM : Outperform Start Price: $12.60 HNR Score: -140.36

ratings were high .

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Member Avatar stefanic47 (45.98) Submitted: 12/10/2010 12:21:40 AM : Outperform Start Price: $4.54 HNR Score: -199.75

slow but sure

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Member Avatar rgera3 (< 20) Submitted: 10/19/2010 7:39:00 PM : Outperform Start Price: $11.39 HNR Score: -159.22

It seems like a takeover candidate by some company.

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Member Avatar kenjotto (65.79) Submitted: 8/30/2010 7:38:11 AM : Outperform Start Price: $6.89 HNR Score: -165.29

It's a bit of a risky play, but Chavez can't keep stealing assets from companies if it truly wants to better his country. If HNR can stay on favorable terms and unlock all the value in its PetroDelta partnership, the stock will be a winner.

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Member Avatar johnnykillz (26.81) Submitted: 6/21/2010 11:44:59 AM : Outperform Start Price: $8.41 HNR Score: -160.03

Mohnish Pobrai pick trading around book value with a call on oil's upside and shifting regulations benefitting land-based oil reserves, which HNR might have in spades compared to a market cap of $274m.

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Member Avatar gutedogg9 (< 20) Submitted: 5/8/2010 2:09:46 PM : Outperform Start Price: $7.89 HNR Score: -153.23

oil will not let down for a long long time

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Member Avatar CanadaDreamer (< 20) Submitted: 1/20/2010 3:14:22 AM : Outperform Start Price: $5.08 HNR Score: -141.74

HNR is grossly mispriced due to excessive concerns about political risk in Ven. Stunning reserve valuations are being overlooked, as well as significant production ramp that is coming. Nevertheless, HNR is diversifying out of Ven and has a series of high impact, company maker plays they are just about to drill.

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Member Avatar jerseytix (57.97) Submitted: 5/8/2009 5:39:32 AM : Underperform Start Price: $5.20 HNR Score: +188.67

Yeah, its balance sheet looks good, but there's significant political risk here, significant downside in oil prices if we face an extended recession, and the company's been burning cash the last three fiscal years.

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