Harvest Natural Resources, Inc. (NYSE:HNR)

Dan9969 (24.17) Submitted: 7/27/2007 4:39:52 PM : Start Price: $11.00 HNR Score: -48.74

Lots of room to grow.

NastyCaNasty (38.09) Submitted: 7/8/2007 7:35:54 PM : Start Price: $12.85 HNR Score: -50.95

Plenty of room to expand, oil prices sky rocket.

amtrader (< 20) Submitted: 7/6/2007 6:49:07 PM : Start Price: $12.85 HNR Score: -50.95

undervalued

kapilstocks (77.15) Submitted: 6/26/2007 1:41:08 PM : Start Price: $12.20 HNR Score: -50.81

Great management. Good cash position. One of the few companies left in venezuela.

mexdamon (45.60) Submitted: 6/18/2007 1:03:56 PM : Start Price: $13.10 HNR Score: -51.74

Petrodelta was approved today; missed the big move, but even at $11.49 it's still undervalued.

Venezuela Congress OKs Oil JV With Harvest Natural Resources
6/16/07 12:08AM EDT- Dow Jones News
CARACAS (Dow Jones)--Venezuela's National Assembly approved the corporate structure for Petrodelta, an oil company that Harvest Natural Resources Inc. (HNR) has a 40% stake in, according to Venezuela's Official Gazette released Monday....

AJL203PSU (65.51) Submitted: 6/5/2007 1:58:28 PM : Start Price: $10.26 HNR Score: -41.19

I'll bite. Energy company that works in BRIC nations of Russia, China and Venezuela. Those areas are known to have lots of oil. This one could be a winner longterm.

Manoj1Sharma (< 20) Submitted: 6/3/2007 11:20:43 PM : Start Price: $9.90 HNR Score: -39.24

HNR owns 32% of PetroDelta. With 3 new added fields and a 20-yr operational contract in place, it should be able to produce more MBoe than in the past 2-3 yrs. Also, it will be receiving 70% of WTI which would be approx. $44.00 per barrel rather than the current $28 per Barrel.

pritts (32.19) Submitted: 5/23/2007 7:44:54 PM : Start Price: $9.60 HNR Score: -38.22

cheap, lots of cash and uncertainty

gembree (99.96) Submitted: 5/15/2007 9:54:56 PM : Start Price: $9.31 HNR Score: -45.10

Hugo Chavez swiped some of their stuff and now they have to redo the contracts. That's priced in. Until the contracts are signed, they can't report any GAAP earnings. Once everything is dotted and crossed, they will go back to making beaucoup bucks. To quote Mohnish Pabrai, who tipped everyone off to this in the first place: "Heads, I win; tails, I don't lose much!"

ZCool (< 20) Submitted: 4/22/2007 1:56:00 PM : Start Price: $10.06 HNR Score: -43.23

Sleeper stock. Watch this one guys

ReformedGrin (85.25) Submitted: 4/10/2007 8:00:13 PM : Start Price: $10.26 HNR Score: -46.53

Impossibly slim downside with incredible upside. Not sure why you wouldn't buy this stock.

rwarrington (< 20) Submitted: 4/10/2007 6:56:11 PM : Start Price: $10.26 HNR Score: -46.53

This stock has been hit hard by the Venezuelan nationalization of oil services firms. They structured a deal that folds their assets into a new, combined, State controlled firm that provides greater total value to Harvest. The immediate risk is that the government does not coutersign the deal; or, later on, mismanages the firm. Harvest does have some oversight controls in the contract - if you trust the government. I'm guessing the deal is in the bag, and after a year or two of stabilization - the returns force the market to see real value here.

heywolfie1015 (< 20) Submitted: 4/10/2007 4:50:20 PM : Start Price: $9.87 HNR Score: -46.38

Chalk this one up to a special situations value play.

HNR specializes in oil operations in "politically difficult" regions, notably Venezuela, Russia and China. The majority of its fields are in Venezuela, where Hugo Chavez recently mandated that all foreign oil companies must take on Venezuela's national oil company, Petrodelta, as a joint venturer. HNR has been going through the conversion process for a little under year, which has prevented it from reporting revenues from several of its most promising oil fields. (This is required by GAAP.) Due to the declining income statement and uncertainty over Chavez, the stock has taken a major hit. This is somewhat understandable since Venezuela could theoretically nationalize the oil fields and HNR would be out of luck. Alternatively, the conversion process could just stall out and HNR could go under.

Here's the silver lining(s): (a) great management with a strong track record; (b) once the conversion goes through, HNR gets to restate its earnings for the past 3-4 quarters; (c) every other company that has been forced into the conversion process has made it all the way through and gone back to normal business operations, albeit with a new partner in the form of the Venezuelan government; (d) intrinsic value analysis of the company suggests at least an $18 stock price, and likely more.

My take on this is that the restatement of earnings will bring HNR back with a vengeance. That's about as far as my timeline goes, however. I have every confidence that HNR will complete the conversion and double within a year or two. It's the period after the upward correction that makes me more tentative.

chupacabre (60.48) Submitted: 12/31/2006 10:04:27 AM : Start Price: $10.56 HNR Score: -50.08

magic formula

golda1 (44.16) Submitted: 12/7/2006 4:50:39 PM : Start Price: $10.25 HNR Score: -49.42

great management

darkflame (97.05) Submitted: 9/20/2006 2:49:08 AM : Start Price: $10.08 HNR Score: -55.23

Come on...you all know that natural gas prices are going up again, the company had some trouble with the government but come on, it has a lot of cash, and virtually no debt. Insiders own 8% and are not even panicking about natural gas like all those hedge funds.