Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG)

Middle class is shrinking in America and this is a discretionary purchase for most.

The overall economy will see slow growth over the next several years at least. With slow growth in consumer demand for large discretionary purchases and increased competition, there is no justification for such a high P/E ratio.

Look at HD's history. Not many years ago in was trading at $7+change!

Ultimate in brand power and loyalty. People will neglect better products at a lower price to get the "Hog" of their dreams. Life long customers aplenty dropping big $ to get into the HD world.

Screen: 1-2 stars, 50+ all-star underperforms, P/E>15, P/B >1.5 (ie. anti-Graham), LTdebt:equity>2, Rev growth<10%

11Q1 results good at first glance, but the EPS increase is down to reduced admin costs, not increased revenue. While improved efficiency is good, there's no reason to think it's going to improve any further in subsequent quarters. Sales were up modestly, but - red flag - recievables were up even more. So Q1 earnings figures may be pumped up at the expense of future earnings. A miss in next month's report could be a catalyst for the market to re-assess the rather optimistic growth expectations boiled into the price.

Here is why I believe the Hog is a pig of a stock worthy of pink tickets. Harley is: 1) losing market share in the USA, a sign that consumer tastes have begun to shift to quieter, less expensive and more fuel efficient toys which suggests its pricing power is waning; 2) inventory has accelerated up 15%, while sales were up 3.5% and down 0.5% in the USA - this suggests prices or production will slip; 3) EPS estimates appear vulnerable to reductions. 4) its financial services arm has a poor credit underwriting history; 5) financial service companies trade at a discount to market (Remember GE premium to discount in a few years); 6) its premium multiple is likely to evaporate on the above factors.

Dangerous curves ahead of estimate and multiple reduction. Remember there is rarely just one cockroach.

This writer shorted HOG after Q1/2011 earnings were released.

people that can afford it will always go for the name brand.

upupupupupupupup!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! made in usa

Long term, Harley will grow.

Harley-Davidson is the Premier US designer and manufacturer of motorcycles. Their product sells at a premium price, yet holds value well in the used cycle market.

Motorcycles are also Eco-friendlly for low fossel fuel and emissions generated per mile traveled.

The shares are a BUY at < $30.95 per share for the long-term investor.

Kahuna, CFA
Kailua-Kona

Sales have decreased each year since 2007 - cost cuts are probably running thin, analyst upgrade the perfect time to short this one.....

consumer sentiment at an yearly low, consumers will not be shelling out dough to purchase expensive motorcycles. they say the wealthy are cutting down on spending because Obama will not extend the Bush Tax Cuts for the Wealthy.

ever been to a ho rally. doctors lawyers etc are joining or have been members of these get togethers.

Could be a bumpy road but the up trend is undeniable. Mid 50's seems reasonable

Harley Davis is now back with its' previous founders family. This bike will survive because of its' craftmanship and durability

Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)
The Company operates in two business segments: Motorcycles (and related products) and Financial Services.

I'm breaking my rule of not picking for this portfolio stocks that are not at least 25% down from their 52W high.
I'm doing it only because I like HOG's chart a lot.

Currently, HOG is down 22.5% from its 52W high of $35.49, but still up 240% from its March 2009 low of $8.20.
Definitely, my kind of value play.
(Did I mention I like HOG's chart?)

Great brand, good free cash flow, decent dividend. Will be resurgent with long-term economic recovery.

Probably making more money off of Accessories and T Shirts at this point, and I see the showrooms packed with buyers every weekend, sure the big ticket bikes may not be flying out the door in this econ, but they are creating new styles (IE the liquid cooled VROD, and strpped down tuff nightsters) to appeal to the younger crowd. Like they say if I Have to explain, you probably wouldnt understand.

Historically, Harley has created a powerful brand through performance and perception. In its current, shrunken state, however, its fundamentals have deteriorated to the point that its chief asset is the clever spinmeister-magician in the back room accounting office who makes the company's cash flow look like something it's not. Your Motley Fool article titled "Show Me The Money: Harley-Davidson" is a brilliant expose. Harley is now riding mostly on perception and a quarter tank of gas.