Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)

You need your car. You need somewhere to sleep. You need food. You don't need that expensive Hog sitting in the garage.

Talk about growth in China and India is just corporate speak for "the US market is toast and it's not looking good everywhere else either. Sucks in China and India too but hey that's got get better right?"

Plus they made most of their cash with their inhouse credit division, but since most owners stopped making those lease payments they have been picking up truck loads of used Hogs. That hurts the market for new models the most.

Hog is toast, but their share price is going to the stars. Why?

Operates in motorcycles and financial services. Sounds stupid.

cnbc.com 20 Stocks with the Biggest Potential To Drop target price: 21.0

Extension always means reaction.

aging clients
won't keep up with the competition
supplier difficulties with declining US manufacturing

The era of trying to look cool is over.

When you see one of your employees on a Harley in the current economic climate, don't you question his IQ? Own a Harley, be the gnarliest guy at the unemployment office.

Inventories still very high. Plant guys dont take cost cutting measures seriously. Its like they have their heads stuck in the sand

HOG is a premium brand and until the market fully recovers this HOG will be last in line to the trough.

It's a luxury in a time when everyone is worrying about that next paycheck

Getting ready to shut down their Kansas City factory with very little press on the subject. I think the company is hurting and not telling their stockholders which drive people away from this company.

Being a rider myself, I see the HD's out all the time, and it's the same old guys getting older. A lot of the younger guys on cruisers are getting their value in similar, but cheaper cruisers from Triumph, Yamaha, Honda, etc., and looking forward to reincarnations from Norton, and Indian Motorcycle( again). It's nice to be able to own a Harley, but they are very costly to buy and maintain, and usually not as reliable or as cheap to fix as their counterparts.

Maybe we will see some competitive Harley's down the line, but for right now, I'd really be wary of this play.

Highly discretionary purchase.

due for an adjustment to

91% decrease in Q2 profits.
11% layoffs (second in one year)
Downgrade debt rating.

I'm just waiting for this to plummit.

A bad economy is a poor time to be selling expensive motorcycles.

Discressionary product in a depression

Unless and until I see inventories stabilize, I cannot imagine this one outperforming the market. No matter how many times management promises to get the inventories under control, they just keep rising... as sales keep falling. Cash burn is rampant, and even a vote of confidence from Warren Buffett now looks misplaced.

HOG reported 2nd quarter numbers that were simply terrible(and the stock went up 9% ?! ) The company recorded a 91% drop In profit,and a steep DOWNWARD revision to the number of bikes It expects to ship to dealers.I guess Investors like the fact that HOG Is going to lay off 1,000 more workers on top of the 1,800 already let go earlier this year...... The baby boomers are growing older,and are quite literally a dying breed. One of the principle occupations of hard core riders (construction) Is a long way from any meaningful recovery,and I really think that the consumer Is tapped out,out of credit,and In many cases out of a job right now. A brand new HOG Is not one of the first things that you would buy with money being so tight. This stock Is far to pricey at these levels,and I look for this stock to go Into reverse here very shortly.

put your damn helemt on Harley Davidson, you're in for a wild ride..yehhaaaaw