Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)

Easy to understand company that has made a mint off of the only real brand in motorcycling. With the multiples this puppy is selling for, the margin of safety is there. Although it may continue to turn down with the economy, the price of gas aint getting any cheaper, which may allow the company to sell a few more its relatively gas efficient bikes. And, pssttt...some smart value investors are buying up this. This is probably because we haven't seen these sorts of prices since 2002-2003, and the earnings are 1.5 times what they were at that time. Add on increasing book value per share, sales per share, continued (but declining) strong ROE and ROIC, and I think we have a strong value buy. Oh, and I forgot to mention this one has a 3.4% dividend yield that continues to increase over time. Buy this one on the way down.

With ROE in excess of 20% year after year and increasing dividends, this company have nowhere to go but up. Harley Davidson is widely recognized and expanding into China. With over 1.4 Billion people there, the growth prospects are tremendous in the next couple of years.

Dominant, I mean dominant brand, supported by a rabid customer base. Valuation is silly, just reported Q2 and blew estimates away by 17 cents. Foreign sales now account for 1/3 of revenue. When the economy improves and consumers begin to open their wallets, it will be too late to hitch a ride on the HOG!

Being a rider myself, I see the HD's out all the time, and it's the same old guys getting older. A lot of the younger guys on cruisers are getting their value in similar, but cheaper cruisers from Triumph, Yamaha, Honda, etc., and looking forward to reincarnations from Norton, and Indian Motorcycle( again). It's nice to be able to own a Harley, but they are very costly to buy and maintain, and usually not as reliable or as cheap to fix as their counterparts.

Maybe we will see some competitive Harley's down the line, but for right now, I'd really be wary of this play.

Having a Harley is the dream of the working class. To have one many might go well beyond their means to buy one. Therefore the subprime credit crunch can spill over into luxuries that might especially appeal to people who cannot afford them. If lending standards tighten there will be less credit approvals, and potential buyers won't be as able to use a home equity loan for financing either. This HOG will be slaughtered.

Even in these tough economic times, Harley-Davidson continues to make boat-loads of money. Even in tough economic times, the company earned 95 cents per share in profits last quarter. If that's considered a tough quarter for them, imagine what a good quarter will do! The international growth is barely getting started. And come on, it's freakin' Harley-Davidson! I don't exactly understand the appeal motorcycles have for some people, but even I know the brand is darned-near impossible to beat. You can slap that name on a rubber duck and sell it for ten times as much. (Though admittedly, such actions would hurt the brand's long-term appeal, but my point being that the name alone is worth a heck of a lot of money.) The dividend yield is about 4% and a PE ratio of about 10%, you'd think this company was on the verge of bankruptcy. Quality company at a cheap price. The stock might stagnate so long as the economy is hurting, but only a fool (little f) would bet against this one in the long run.

I sold my shares last year at 65, and have been waiting for a good time to get back in. I think that time may be near at hand. This is a solid company with a very loyal customer base, and will be around long after this bear market. Think about it for a minute. How many other companies logos have you seen TATOOED on people's bodies???

HD has a strong brand name in the American eye, but I hesitate to agree that it will continue experiencing strong growth. Increased competition and a new breed of younger riders that are not as connected to the Harley brand image will hurt its growth. Additionally, several insider transactions selling stock near its high price suggests that its recent strong performance of late will come to an end.

The name speaks for itself for motorcycles ... and they also are involved in financials. The cost of oil has helped drive the price down to a level worth buying right now. In addition, they are an extremely well run company. A few financials:

EPS - hasn't dropped in the last 10 years

Liquidity
L/T Debt $980 Repay years 0.68
Earnings $1,448 Result: Good Buy

Share Buyback (10 years)
Amount: 67400000 Result: Good Buy

Returns (10 years) - great numbers
Average ROE 28.08% Result: Good Buy
Average ROC 23.66% Result: Good Buy

Expect this stock to climb in the long run.

Well, P/E < 10. Earnings/equity ~ 35%!! And... BRAND. Unbeatable brand. Folks, this is - competitive advantage.

Yes, consumer confidence is at it's lows. Gas is at it's highs. People don't have much money left for luxuries. But all this is priced in already. And HOG is not just a company, it's a symbol. And symbols last much longer then most of pessimists.

I am confident in HOG, as Harley team says - "screw it, lets ride!". And if you are ready for a bumpy ride for a year or so, and if you have at least 3-year time horizon - hold on on HOG.

HOG has lost 40% of value since July 07. What has changed since July 07? The economy and gas prices. People will still buy Harleys in a recession and if anything gas prices will encourage this. If you were going to replace your car for a different mode of transportation what mode and company would you choose? I personally would choose Harley because they are an established, trusted brand. Plus the ticker is catchy.

im shorting this company on the reason because with people defaulting on homes this has already spilled into the credit card industry and now hog is showing signs of the consumer make late if not payments at all which leaves harley with excess inventory and loans

Don't trust the numbers. Don't trust management. Don't overpay for the product.

Harley Davidson has a very strong brand name and an almost unexplainable following. Margins look really good and I believe that management will be able to maintain current margins over the long term. The dividend yield is attractive enough for me at this price level to be buying for the long term. Also a weak dollar and high gasoline prices are not hurting HOG!

A slowing economy will lessen the demand for this high quality producer of motorcycles. While buyers like the vehicles for their aurora of the Hog image, this is not a necessary mode of commuting and shopping transportation.

Out of favour with market.

Much as I love Harley, they're a luxury item. Boomers spent their load on new housing, and now that interest rates are on the rise, they're not going to have the money to buy a new bike.

Lets see- High visibility product instantly recognizable-Made in America,accessory line that sells jackets to cookware if it saays Harley Davidson on it it commands top dollar and folks that don't even own a Harley are buying these accessories.I see more of these dealerships as I go down the hiway and my fuzzy research convinced me that I should purchase stock and a bike so you see I am speaking from experience-Harley is in demand and thus this stock is one for my portfolio.

Just go to a Harley Davidson's dealer and request a Fat Boy. And you will see the list of names who are waiting for one. To paraphrase Jim Carvill, "It's Economic 101, stupid".