+ Watch HOG
on My Watchlist
The Company operates in two business segments: Motorcycles and Financial Services.
This trend is here to stay
High operating margin and quick ratio of 1.76. Also Buffett backed them.
Warren Buffett said it best, "Who can claim a higher level of brand loyalty than a company whose customers tattoo its logo on their arms!?" Under-the-radar recovery going on here as a new generation discovers the joys of "HOG-Heaven!"
As a manufacturer high-cost consumer discretionary products in a floundering economy, HOG is probably due for quite a few miles of rough road over the next few years. The fact that they carry a lot of their own credit will not help.
An improving economic picture will lead to more disposible income. Can you say HOG heaven?
My shares of HOG have already doubled in value so I sold them and I believe the price will continue to rise but not at the pace that I have enjoyed.
Middle class is shrinking in America and this is a discretionary purchase for most.
The overall economy will see slow growth over the next several years at least. With slow growth in consumer demand for large discretionary purchases and increased competition, there is no justification for such a high P/E ratio.
Look at HD's history. Not many years ago in was trading at $7+change!
Ultimate in brand power and loyalty. People will neglect better products at a lower price to get the "Hog" of their dreams. Life long customers aplenty dropping big $ to get into the HD world.
Screen: 1-2 stars, 50+ all-star underperforms, P/E>15, P/B >1.5 (ie. anti-Graham), LTdebt:equity>2, Rev growth<10%11Q1 results good at first glance, but the EPS increase is down to reduced admin costs, not increased revenue. While improved efficiency is good, there's no reason to think it's going to improve any further in subsequent quarters. Sales were up modestly, but - red flag - recievables were up even more. So Q1 earnings figures may be pumped up at the expense of future earnings. A miss in next month's report could be a catalyst for the market to re-assess the rather optimistic growth expectations boiled into the price.
Here is why I believe the Hog is a pig of a stock worthy of pink tickets. Harley is: 1) losing market share in the USA, a sign that consumer tastes have begun to shift to quieter, less expensive and more fuel efficient toys which suggests its pricing power is waning; 2) inventory has accelerated up 15%, while sales were up 3.5% and down 0.5% in the USA - this suggests prices or production will slip; 3) EPS estimates appear vulnerable to reductions. 4) its financial services arm has a poor credit underwriting history; 5) financial service companies trade at a discount to market (Remember GE premium to discount in a few years); 6) its premium multiple is likely to evaporate on the above factors. Dangerous curves ahead of estimate and multiple reduction. Remember there is rarely just one cockroach. This writer shorted HOG after Q1/2011 earnings were released.
Long term, Harley will grow.
Harley-Davidson is the Premier US designer and manufacturer of motorcycles. Their product sells at a premium price, yet holds value well in the used cycle market.Motorcycles are also Eco-friendlly for low fossel fuel and emissions generated per mile traveled.The shares are a BUY at < $30.95 per share for the long-term investor.Kahuna, CFAKailua-Kona
Sales have decreased each year since 2007 - cost cuts are probably running thin, analyst upgrade the perfect time to short this one.....
consumer sentiment at an yearly low, consumers will not be shelling out dough to purchase expensive motorcycles. they say the wealthy are cutting down on spending because Obama will not extend the Bush Tax Cuts for the Wealthy.
ever been to a ho rally. doctors lawyers etc are joining or have been members of these get togethers.
Harley Davis is now back with its' previous founders family. This bike will survive because of its' craftmanship and durability
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (HOG)The Company operates in two business segments: Motorcycles (and related products) and Financial Services.I'm breaking my rule of not picking for this portfolio stocks that are not at least 25% down from their 52W high.I'm doing it only because I like HOG's chart a lot.Currently, HOG is down 22.5% from its 52W high of $35.49, but still up 240% from its March 2009 low of $8.20.Definitely, my kind of value play.(Did I mention I like HOG's chart?)
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