+ Watch HOG
on My Watchlist
The Company operates in two business segments: Motorcycles and Financial Services.
HD has good fundamentals and I think they are managing their debt well but I’m shorting the stock long term on MF mainly because I want to keep track and see how they manage their brand. Long term, I think smarter consumers will enter the market looking for performance and/or comfort at a reasonable price and won’t want to dress like pirates.All of HD’s competitors offer a better product and don’t sacrifice performance for sound and with HD’s high debt load and failed Buell line I’m skeptical about them competing because HD’s brand is their business. Because of the high stock price, it is a good time to short and the insiders agree.
First great Motorcycle brand to publically endorse the electric. Just imagine the movie bikes it will inspire, or the movies that inspire the bikes
Dividends500 tracks the 200 strongest dividends in the S&P 500. To qualify as a strong dividend, the company must meet two simple requirements:- A payout ratio below 50%- An increasing dividend from the prior yearBecause there are more than 200 dividend paying companies in the S&P 500 that meet these requirements, the qualifying companies with the largest dividend yields were chosen. Dividends500 intends to test this FactSet article, which highlights these strong dividend paying companies and their outperformance versus the S&P 500 as a whole (Page 12).http://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/dividend/dividend_12.16.13If you have questions or see something you think is inaccurate feel free to let me know.
Extremely loyal fan base (Like, more than WWE levels of fanboyism) Respectable growth. Extremely prestigious brand.
The recent moves and new product announcements bode well for global growth. Also exciting to see Harley pushing for motorcycle ice racing at the Winter X Games on ESPN recently! The company may be making a bold move towards youthful excitement and danger that used to be associated with their bikes. Will they succeed? To be seen, but it's better to see them try than stagnating.
This trend is here to stay
Warren Buffett said it best, "Who can claim a higher level of brand loyalty than a company whose customers tattoo its logo on their arms!?" Under-the-radar recovery going on here as a new generation discovers the joys of "HOG-Heaven!"
As a manufacturer high-cost consumer discretionary products in a floundering economy, HOG is probably due for quite a few miles of rough road over the next few years. The fact that they carry a lot of their own credit will not help.
An improving economic picture will lead to more disposible income. Can you say HOG heaven?
My shares of HOG have already doubled in value so I sold them and I believe the price will continue to rise but not at the pace that I have enjoyed.
Middle class is shrinking in America and this is a discretionary purchase for most.
The overall economy will see slow growth over the next several years at least. With slow growth in consumer demand for large discretionary purchases and increased competition, there is no justification for such a high P/E ratio.
Look at HD's history. Not many years ago in was trading at $7+change!
Ultimate in brand power and loyalty. People will neglect better products at a lower price to get the "Hog" of their dreams. Life long customers aplenty dropping big $ to get into the HD world.
Screen: 1-2 stars, 50+ all-star underperforms, P/E>15, P/B >1.5 (ie. anti-Graham), LTdebt:equity>2, Rev growth<10%11Q1 results good at first glance, but the EPS increase is down to reduced admin costs, not increased revenue. While improved efficiency is good, there's no reason to think it's going to improve any further in subsequent quarters. Sales were up modestly, but - red flag - recievables were up even more. So Q1 earnings figures may be pumped up at the expense of future earnings. A miss in next month's report could be a catalyst for the market to re-assess the rather optimistic growth expectations boiled into the price.
Here is why I believe the Hog is a pig of a stock worthy of pink tickets. Harley is: 1) losing market share in the USA, a sign that consumer tastes have begun to shift to quieter, less expensive and more fuel efficient toys which suggests its pricing power is waning; 2) inventory has accelerated up 15%, while sales were up 3.5% and down 0.5% in the USA - this suggests prices or production will slip; 3) EPS estimates appear vulnerable to reductions. 4) its financial services arm has a poor credit underwriting history; 5) financial service companies trade at a discount to market (Remember GE premium to discount in a few years); 6) its premium multiple is likely to evaporate on the above factors. Dangerous curves ahead of estimate and multiple reduction. Remember there is rarely just one cockroach. This writer shorted HOG after Q1/2011 earnings were released.
Long term, Harley will grow.
Harley-Davidson is the Premier US designer and manufacturer of motorcycles. Their product sells at a premium price, yet holds value well in the used cycle market.Motorcycles are also Eco-friendlly for low fossel fuel and emissions generated per mile traveled.The shares are a BUY at < $30.95 per share for the long-term investor.Kahuna, CFAKailua-Kona
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