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The Company operates in two business segments: Motorcycles and Financial Services.
Finco debt in a manufacturing company like HOG always throws me for a loop, but I've roughly calculated that about 80% of Harley's debt ($5.5B out of $6.9B) is attributable to HDFS. Cash on hand balances out the remainder of that debt, leaving Harley at basically zero debt ex-HDFS. Working an EV/FCF calculation, I get 10.7 as the multiple on Harley. That seems cheap against 15% projected long-term growth, and a 2.6% dividend yield.
Harley-Davidson drops to a 2-year lowhttps://www.hvst.com/posts/53108-harley-davidson-drops-to-a-2-year-low
52 WK low sp500 test
I think it will move higher because it is near its 52 week low and is a good American brand
It is undervalued
Going to rebound after the selloff from Q1 numbers which were deflated primarily because of the strength of the dollar.
PII and foreign competition is admittedly by HOG forcing price competition. I see new Harley prices, the popular models like FLHX & FLTR & FLHTK selling for a couple grand under MSRP when previous seasons they were MSRP ++. They've announced cut backs of unit production to try and stay margin erosion which implies consumers are still so loyal they won't go buy an Indian or Victory or Honda. Whether or not they do, it should depress earnings and revenue at the Motor Company.
M* Wide Moat
who doesn't love a HOG
HD has good fundamentals and I think they are managing their debt well but I’m shorting the stock long term on MF mainly because I want to keep track and see how they manage their brand. Long term, I think smarter consumers will enter the market looking for performance and/or comfort at a reasonable price and won’t want to dress like pirates.All of HD’s competitors offer a better product and don’t sacrifice performance for sound and with HD’s high debt load and failed Buell line I’m skeptical about them competing because HD’s brand is their business. Because of the high stock price, it is a good time to short and the insiders agree.
First great Motorcycle brand to publically endorse the electric. Just imagine the movie bikes it will inspire, or the movies that inspire the bikes
Dividends500 tracks the 200 strongest dividends in the S&P 500. To qualify as a strong dividend, the company must meet two simple requirements:- A payout ratio below 50%- An increasing dividend from the prior yearBecause there are more than 200 dividend paying companies in the S&P 500 that meet these requirements, the qualifying companies with the largest dividend yields were chosen. Dividends500 intends to test this FactSet article, which highlights these strong dividend paying companies and their outperformance versus the S&P 500 as a whole (Page 12).http://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/dividend/dividend_12.16.13If you have questions or see something you think is inaccurate feel free to let me know.
Extremely loyal fan base (Like, more than WWE levels of fanboyism) Respectable growth. Extremely prestigious brand.
This trend is here to stay
Warren Buffett said it best, "Who can claim a higher level of brand loyalty than a company whose customers tattoo its logo on their arms!?" Under-the-radar recovery going on here as a new generation discovers the joys of "HOG-Heaven!"
An improving economic picture will lead to more disposible income. Can you say HOG heaven?
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