+ Watch HOG
on My Watchlist
The Company operates in two business segments: Motorcycles and Financial Services.
the numbers can't be all wrong - very attractive
Finco debt in a manufacturing company like HOG always throws me for a loop, but I've roughly calculated that about 80% of Harley's debt ($5.5B out of $6.9B) is attributable to HDFS. Cash on hand balances out the remainder of that debt, leaving Harley at basically zero debt ex-HDFS. Working an EV/FCF calculation, I get 10.7 as the multiple on Harley. That seems cheap against 15% projected long-term growth, and a 2.6% dividend yield.
Harley-Davidson drops to a 2-year lowhttps://www.hvst.com/posts/53108-harley-davidson-drops-to-a-2-year-low
52 WK low sp500 test
It is undervalued
Going to rebound after the selloff from Q1 numbers which were deflated primarily because of the strength of the dollar.
PII and foreign competition is admittedly by HOG forcing price competition. I see new Harley prices, the popular models like FLHX & FLTR & FLHTK selling for a couple grand under MSRP when previous seasons they were MSRP ++. They've announced cut backs of unit production to try and stay margin erosion which implies consumers are still so loyal they won't go buy an Indian or Victory or Honda. Whether or not they do, it should depress earnings and revenue at the Motor Company.
M* Wide Moat
HD has good fundamentals and I think they are managing their debt well but I’m shorting the stock long term on MF mainly because I want to keep track and see how they manage their brand. Long term, I think smarter consumers will enter the market looking for performance and/or comfort at a reasonable price and won’t want to dress like pirates.All of HD’s competitors offer a better product and don’t sacrifice performance for sound and with HD’s high debt load and failed Buell line I’m skeptical about them competing because HD’s brand is their business. Because of the high stock price, it is a good time to short and the insiders agree.
First great Motorcycle brand to publically endorse the electric. Just imagine the movie bikes it will inspire, or the movies that inspire the bikes
Extremely loyal fan base (Like, more than WWE levels of fanboyism) Respectable growth. Extremely prestigious brand.
This trend is here to stay
An improving economic picture will lead to more disposible income. Can you say HOG heaven?
Been there for 109 years. dedicated fan base. great bikes and merch is always a hot item.
My shares of HOG have already doubled in value so I sold them and I believe the price will continue to rise but not at the pace that I have enjoyed.
Middle class is shrinking in America and this is a discretionary purchase for most.
The overall economy will see slow growth over the next several years at least. With slow growth in consumer demand for large discretionary purchases and increased competition, there is no justification for such a high P/E ratio.
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