Hot Topic, Inc. (NASDAQ:HOTT)
The Company is a small mall-based specialty retailer operating the Hot Topic and Torrid store concepts.
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This is a retail youth oriented clothing line that I have watched (and invested it for several yrs.
They always seem to be ahead of the curve on new styles, ect. It does ebb and flow with the seasons and spring is upon us.
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I think the bad news is behind us here. Takeout candidate.
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the party is over and the fad has faded. goth has gone down the drain.
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Hot Topic is a mall-based specialty retailer operating under the Hot Topic and Torrid stores. Hot Topic sells a selection of music/pop culture-licensed and music/pop culture-influenced apparel, accessories and gift items for young men and women principally between the ages of 12 and 22. Torrid stores sell apparel, lingerie, shoes and accessories designed for various lifestyles for plus-size females between the ages of 15 and 29.
By 2008, there are likely to be more teenagers in the United States than at any other point in history. It is also estimated that plus size represents the fastest growing category in the women’s apparel market, with junior plus-size as the fastest growing segment within the demographic. Although it denotes a good picture about the target customers, the company has not been able to capitalize on the opportunities.
The company has posted negative same store sales in the past two years. Men’s and women’s comps have also posted negative results. Music licensed apparels, the second highest volume category with negative 14% same-store sales, add further to the woes. Management is expecting lesser licenses and music launches in the next quarter to soften sales.
Hot Topic was aggressively expanding its Torrid stores in the previous year. However, opening of Torrid stores in the current fiscal has not been very impressive with just nine stores being opened. Moreover, CD and DVD sales of the company have remained weak over the past year due to increasing popularity of MP3 players and iPods. With weakening revenue growth and there being no strong initiatives in line, we feel Hot Topic is not hot.
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file cabinet 45
CS 4
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plain and simple, hot topic is out of style
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Management is feeling good about its latest efforts in the women's categories, while men's continues to struggle. But with comps down again in the latest quarter, this time dropping 5.5% it is obvious the retailer still has plenty of work cut out for itself.
As long as Hot Topic continues in its Goth ways, the company will continue to underperform -- really, how many Goth wearers are out there? One positive sign is that management is finally recognizing this and is trying to introduce more fashion friendly items. Now it is a matter of them getting the word out.
Until proven otherwise, this stock belongs in my permanent "dog" status.
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Hot Topic's fallen out of favor with youthful consumers, and the change in trends will continue to put a significant dent in the company's bottom line.
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